Oddsmakers Predict a Much More Grueling 2020 Season for Broncos | Here's Why
The NFL schedule has been released and for the Denver Broncos, it's another year slated with some of the toughest opponents in the NFL. Being in the AFC West with the defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs — as well as the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, no matter how the schedule played out — the Broncos were going to have a challenge in what could be the best Division top to bottom in the entire NFL.
Many folks in the industry around the time of the official schedule release tout ‘strength of schedule’ as an indicator of just how tough the upcoming season’s games will be. Using that metric, the Broncos’ schedule would be the 12th-hardest in the NFL, with their opponents' combined winning percentage of .512.
However, using last year’s win totals to calculate just how difficult the approaching season’s schedule will be has been shown to not be very predictive. Given how much can change in the span of one offseason, using last season’s winning percentage does not always represent how good a team will be the next year.
Parity Reigns Supreme in NFL
The easiest example for this would be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Finishing last season 7-9 in Bruce Arians’ first year as the organization’s head coach, the Buccaneers were a fun watch airing the ball out with Jameis Winston throwing for 33 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. The 2020 version of the Buccaneers should be much, much different.
While still maintaining a core of offensive weapons in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate, and O.J. Howard, the Buccaneers added the dynamic ex-Patriots' duo of arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time in Tom Brady and future Hall-of-Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski.
With these moves (and an underrated, young defense) the Buccaneers have catapulted themselves to the team with the fifth-best odds for winning the Super Bowl. It's safe to say, the 2019 record for the Bucs means little to nothing for how the team will perform in 2020.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are another less extreme example. Finishing 2019 with the third-best defense in the NFL according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Steelers’ offense struggled mightily to overcome the loss of Ben Roethlisberger with the horrific quarterback play displayed by Mason Rudolph and Devlin ‘Duck’ Hodges.
Now that Big Ben will be back on the field, even if he is simply ‘okay’ at quarterback in 2020, the Steelers will be a darkhorse Super Bowl contender. Going 8-8, despite how poorly the team replaced Roethlisberger, is a testament to Head Coach Mike Tomlin and the entire team.
So while it's fun to look at last year’s schedule to try to determine the upcoming season’s outlook, a far better indicator is using Las Vegas’ win-loss predictions. Yes, Vegas cannot predict the future and there are always teams that surprise, such as the San Francisco 49ers who went 13-3 despite Vegas predicting them to finish 8-8.
However, the data is the data and Vegas doesn’t look like it does because they lose money and as shown by analyst Warren Sharp, using the oddsmakers’ win-loss betting lines instead of using the opponents' previous winning percentage is simply a much better indicator of a schedule’s difficulty.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, as one could have probably guessed given the two listed examples of the Buccaneers and the Steelers, Vegas thinks the Broncos’ 2020 schedule will in fact be more difficult than the strength of schedule formula would imply.
Again according to Sharp, the Broncos’ schedule is not going to be a walk in the park in 2020. Using Vegas to predict Denver’s schedule toughness, the Broncos come out with the fifth-hardest schedule in the entire NFL.
What Vegas is Really Saying
With nine of Denver's games scheduled against teams predicted to have eight or more wins, and five of those nine predicted to win nine or more games, Denver is predicted to have a true gauntlet of in 2020. Drew Lock and company will be put through the refiner's fire.
The link provided above is also fun to mess with in regards to specific facets of the coming opponents. For example, while Denver’s 2020 schedule is no joke, the run defense should be in for an easier season with the Broncos’ having the second-easiest slate of opponents in giving up explosive runs (with really only the Titans and Bills as explosive run teams on the schedule).
On the other hand, Denver’s pass rush, despite its formidable collection of talent, may have a difficult time getting home as the Broncos are predicted to have the third-most difficult schedule in regards to the opponents' offensive pass protection efficiency.
In the end, the games are played on the field and football is unpredictable. Anything can happen on any given Sunday, and the parity of the league is what makes the game so enthralling and appealing each and every week. The Broncos no doubt will have a mountain to climb to reach the playoffs for the first time since winning Super Bowl 50, at least according to Vegas.
The Broncos will truly need to earn their playoff spot this season with the slate of opponents they have in 2020, but if they do make it out of the regular season, they'll be battle-tested and a tough out for whoever they draw.
Only 125 days until Denver opens up at Mile High on Monday Night Football, so in the words of Peyton Manning, please football 'Hurry Hurry'.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
