Analyzing How Many Roster Spots are Feasibly Available to Broncos' 2020 Draft Class
The NFL Draft is finally here! After months of mocking, we will all soon find out what the Denver Broncos end up doing on day one of the draft. Will Denver stay at pick15? Trade up? Trade down?
We've heard rumors supporting all of these options in recent weeks. And GM John Elway enters this draft with 10 total selections, five of which are in the top-100 — so the team certainly has the ammo to move up if they so choose.
Which begs the question — how many draft picks can the Broncos realistically expect to make the final 53-man roster? The answer might give us a hint as to how aggressive the Broncos will be on draft day.
Let’s take a look at the players currently under contract as a starting point.
Roster Locks
There are a number of players on the team that you can all but guarantee make the final 53-man roster. Almost all of these players are sitting at or near the top of the depth chart at their respective positions and should be considered locks, barring a significant change. Again, these are players who are virtually guaranteed a roster spot.
QB (2): Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel
RB (2): Melvin Gordon, Phillip Lindsay
WR (3): Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, DaeSean Hamilton
TE (2): Noah Fant, Nick Vannett
OL (5): Garett Bolles, Dalton Risner, Graham Glasgow, Elijah Wilkinson, Ja’Wuan James
DL (5): Jurrell Casey, Shelby Harris, Mike Purcell, Dre’Mont Jones, DeMarcus Walker
OLB (4): Von Miller, Bradley Chubb, Jeremiah Attaochu, Justin Hollins
ILB (2): Alexander Johnson, Todd Davis
CB (3): A.J. Bouye, Bryce Callahan, De’Vante Bausby
S (2): Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson
Specialists (3): Sam Martin, Brandon McManus, Jacob Bobenmoyer OR Wes Farnsworth (LS)
KR/PR (1): Diontae Spencer
Total: 34 players
I’m sure you could make the argument to remove one or two of these players, or even add names, but this should get us in the right ballpark for totals.
Now, let’s look at some players who could make the final roster but are not written into the depth chart with Sharpie at this time.
On the Bubble
RB (1): Royce Freeman
WR (1): Juwann Winfree
TE/FB (2): Andrew Beck, Jeff Heuerman/Troy Fumagalli/Jake Butt
OL (2): Patrick Morris, Jake Rodgers/Austin Schlottmann
OLB (1): Malik Reed
ILB (2): Josey Jewell, Joseph Jones
CB (3): Davontae Harris, Duke Dawson, Isaac Yiadom
S (1): Trey Marshall
Total: 13 (spots, not players)
This section is definitely not as clear cut as the first. A lot of these guys have a good chance to make the team based on a cheap contract and/or tenure with the team. The biggest question marks right now surround TE/RB, OL, and CB.
Between both of these lists, there are six total TE/FB that you can make a case for a roster spot. But the Broncos certainly won’t carry more than four or five at the very most (unlikely). For that reason, I’m putting a total of just two TE/FBs on the bubble.
The O-line is similar. The team has praised Morris often this offseason, so I would not be shocked to see him find his way onto the roster. Beyond him, you’ve got a couple of guys (Rodgers and Schlottmann) that will have to battle in training camp for their spot.
Then you’re left with cornerback. There are a total of six usable CBs on the roster currently. That happens to be the number of CBs the team has historically carried on the 53 under Elway the front-office czar. These six may end up being who makes the final roster, but they’ll surely have some competition via the draft or post-draft free agency.
I considered adding QB Brett Rypien to this list, but with the addition of Driskel as the backup, I have a hard time seeing Denver carrying three QBs.
The other players noted above benefit from being on cheap contracts and having little competition around them, which is primarily why they find themselves on the bubble.
This 'on the bubble' list totals 13. Combine these players with the roster locks and were are suddenly at 47 out of the 53 players allowed on the final roster.
Draft Outlook
So what does that mean for the 10 selections Denver holds for the 2020 draft? Well, if you look at this through a black and white lens, as many as half of them may not make the final roster in their rookie year.
That’s not to say that all rookies should make the roster (in a lot of cases Day 3 picks don’t), but this does help point to one thing — Elway can afford to package picks to move up.
You also have to consider Elway’s history of adding low-cost veterans and undrafted free agents post-draft. If he keeps with tradition, you can expect to see another two or three vets to come in, as well as five or more undrafted players.
So you’ve got 34 roster locks plus 13 on the bubble plus 10 draft selections plus 7 post-draft additions, which adds up to 64 total players fighting for 53 spots.
There have been a lot of rumors floating around this week that Denver will move up to draft the WR they want in the first round. The Broncos certainly have the draft capital to make a move, and given the outlook of players currently under contract, I would say it’s more likely than not at this point.
I also see the team continuing to be aggressive on Day 2 of the draft, packaging some of their later picks to sneak one of those third-round picks into the second.
Regardless of how many picks the Broncos end up making, Elway finds himself in a much better position resource-wise heading into the 2020 draft than he has been been in recent years.
I think I speak for all of Broncos Country in saying I can’t wait to see what happens Thursday night!
Follow Trevor on Twitter @TrevorJudge and @MileHighHuddle.
