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Estimating Broncos' Timeline for Pat Surtain's Massive Extension
A sizeable payday is looming for the Denver Broncos' star cornerback.
As the Denver Broncos prepare for the 2024 season, they will be watching the performance of the remaining members of the draft class of 2021. Most of these players will enter the final year of their contracts.
The exception is Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos' 2021 first-round pick, who has a fifth-year option the Broncos are certain to exercise. Surtain has established himself as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL.
There is, of course, a chance that the Broncos could extend Surtain before the 2024 season gets underway. Some might argue it's better to get it done now before cornerback prices get too high.
But is that really the case? Let's look at where the cornerback market stands right now.
Some people might look at the contract that L'Jarius Sneed signed after the Chiefs traded him to the Titans. To be sure, Sneed got paid well, getting a four-year, $74.6M contract with $55M guaranteed.
Sneed didn't get the most guarantees for a corner, either. That distinction goes to Denzel Ward at $71.25M. Jalen Ramsey comes next at $71.203M. Ward signed his extension in 2022 and Ramsey signed his back in 2020. Sneed's contract is closer to that of Jaylon Johnson, who the Bears signed to a new deal before the start of free agency. Johnson got $19M APY with $54M in total guarantees.
None of this means that Surtain won't get paid well -- he most certainly will. What it means is that Sneed didn't set the bar for the top cornerbacks. It's the likes of Alexander, Ward, and Ramsey -- who all signed their contracts earlier than Sneed -- who have done that.
There's also the fact that other cornerbacks in the class of 2021 aren't necessarily in line to re-set the market.
Among those taken in the first round, Greg Newsome II is the only one likely to have his fifth-year option picked up. His option will be about $13.4M, while Surtain's will be $19.8M. Newsome might push for a deal like Sneed's but he'll be hard-pressed to re-set the market.
The other first-round cornerbacks -- Jayce Horn, Caleb Farley, and Eric Stokes -- have missed a lot of games the past couple of years because of injuries. These three may not get their options picked up and teams may be hesitant to give them big contracts because of their injury histories.
Other cornerbacks will be eligible for free agency in 2025. Among them are A.J. Terrell, Asante Samuel Jr., and Brandon Stephens. None of the three have received a Pro Bowl bid nor have they been named an All-Pro. While they may get contracts similar to Sneed and Johnson, it would be surprising if they re-set the cornerback market.
One final consideration the Broncos have is navigating the salary cap for 2024. They are taking a bigger hit against the cap by taking the full hit of Russell Wilson's $22M option bonus. While they have some cap space to work with, they need to be careful as they move forward.
An extension for Surtain in 2024 wouldn't likely lower his 2024 cap hit of $6.7M, to include $3.5M in base salary and a roster bonus (the rest is from the pro-rated signing bonus he got in 2021). However, in 2025, an extension would lower the cap charge of $19.8M.
Furthermore, an extension in 2025 benefits Surtain in this way: He would get a chance for more guarantees that are new money. His 2024 salary is already fully guaranteed, and once his fifth-year option is picked up, that money is also fully guaranteed.
For Surtain, an extension in 2024 would mean that when it comes to full guarantees, the Broncos would include the $23M that is already fully guaranteed. By waiting a year, Surtain increases the future years that he could get more fully guaranteed money.
In other words, the Broncos and Surtain's agent would have legitimate reasons to wait. For the Broncos, waiting a year to extend Surtain would allow them to benefit from a low cap number in 2025. For Surtain and his agent, it's a chance for Surtain to get more guarantees that are new money.
Again, Surtain is certain to get paid a significant amount once he signs an extension -- and one that is certain to set new highs in APY salary and total guarantees.
I would not be surprised to see Surtain get at least $75M in total guarantees, with at least $45M fully guaranteed, at an APY salary of at least $22M.
But the Broncos need not worry about a bunch of cornerbacks setting a higher bar for contracts at this time. They do need to prepare to pay Surtain well, but there's nothing to suggest the market will go crazy.
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