Examining Broncos' Decision to Cut Todd Davis Through Salary Cap Lens
The Denver Broncos are carrying a lot of cap space at the moment. The final space won't be known until practice squads are set and any last-minute roster adjustments are made, but the Broncos are a team that has a lot of space to work with.
According to Over the Cap, the Broncos have a little more than $25 million in cap space. The 53-man roster, the 16-man practice squad, and players on injured reserve all count towards the cap.
But $25M is a lot of space to make a big move for 2020, right? Not so fast.
Jump ahead to 2021 — you'll notice Over the Cap has adjusted its cap projection for 2021 and is assuming a base cap of $176M.
The Broncos have 37 players under contract for 2021 and are projected to have $45.7M in cap space. The 37 players under contract include Ja'Wuan James and Kyle Peko, both of whom opted out of the 2020 season because of COVID-19 concerns.
Once the Broncos get 51 players under contract — and that will likely happen when they sign players to futures contracts — their cap space should be $36.5M in 2021.
The 2021 amounts don't include cap carryover from 2020. Therefore, if the Broncos carry all $25M of their 2020 space, they would have a whopping $61.5M in cap space, once 51 players are under contract.
So why not make a bold move now? It's because a lot of other teams are going to be in a world of hurt if the cap drops to $176M.
Consider these teams:
New Orleans Saints: The Saints have just $1.4M in cap space this year and are projected to be $69.8M over the cap next year — and that's with 44 players under contract. When you talk about the playoff window closing, the Saints certainly fit that description, given their 2021 cap situation.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles fortunate to have $17.9M in cap space this year, but they are projected to be $64.7M over the cap next year with 41 players under contract. That cap carryover won't be enough to be helped by itself.
Atlanta Falcons: Not everyone thinks the Falcons are a playoff contender, though they have built the team like one. They have just $2.7M in cap space this year and are projected to be $24.4M over the cap next year — and they have just 32 players under contract for 2021.
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs are a Super Bowl contender, which is why they've been extending key players. But with $6.7M in cap space left this year, and projected to be $10.9M over the cap with just 34 players under contract for 2021, they will have tough decisions to make after the season.
Las Vegas Raiders: They'll have to do a little cap maneuvering this year because they are currently slightly over the cap. And they'll have to do more maneuvering next year, because they're projected to be $10.1M over the cap next year with 39 players under contract.
Houston Texans: After extending DeShaun Watson, the Texans have $11.4M in cap space for 2020. They are projected to be $7.3M over the cap next year, with 38 players under contract, so even with carryover, they'll have to either cut or restructure players and will find it hard to be active in free agency.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers have $7M in cap space for 2020 and are projected to be $5.1M over the cap in 2021 — and that's with just 33 players under contract. They are another team that will need more than carryover to get under the cap and will find it difficult to be active in free agency.
Minnesota Vikings: At the moment, they are just $808,067 under the cap, which will get them just under the cap in 2021 if it's carried over. However, the Vikings have just 40 players under contract for 2021, so once that adjustment is made, they'll have to figure out what's next.
Six of those teams have playoff aspirations for 2020, so you know there are some good players on their rosters — players that might hit the open market in 2021 if they are cut or have expiring contracts.
You can see why the Broncos are taking a cautious approach. They want the flexibility to retain as many players as possible for 2021, plus the chance to be active when some good players might be available, and carrying over cap space gives them the best chance.
It's tough to watch a player such as Todd Davis be cut — and there's no doubt it's a big gamble, considering the leadership and great run defense that Davis brought to the team.
But the same applies to those who are pushing tighter against the cap this year because they are hoping they'll get to the Super Bowl. And the Broncos appear to be betting on some of those teams having to let quality players go, with the chance to sign them on favorable terms.
Again, letting go of a player like Davis is a gamble, but if the Broncos' cap strategy pays off with more talent that makes them a bonafide playoff contender, fans will eventually forgive the team's decision with Davis. We'll find out this season — and next season — how the Broncos' strategy works out.
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