Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Examining Whether DaeSean Hamilton's Late-Season Emergence Takes WR2 off Broncos' Draft Board
Just like that, the 2019 Denver Broncos’ season comes to a close.
After starting the year at a dreadful 0-4 clip, the Broncos finished the last three-quarters of the regular season at 7-5 while going a remarkable 4-1 to close out the season under rookie quarterback Drew Lock. With Lock very likely to be the unquestioned 2020 starter, for the first time since Peyton Manning played in Orange and Blue, the Broncos appear to be trending in the right direction.
Of course, not all of the late-season success can be laid at the feet of the exciting young quarterback, as the Broncos’ schedule lightened dramatically with three wins coming against the sub.-500 Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Oakland Raiders all at home, but alas teams can only play the opponents on the schedule. On top of the lighter end of year schedule, the Broncos did appear to be further gelling on the field, in tandem with the scheme as well as better execution.
Make no mistake, though, the power of having a young potential franchise quarterback bringing leadership, energy, and hope to the locker room cannot be understated.
There are many different definitions and tallies a player must check off in order to be dubbed a ‘franchise quarterback’ but perhaps above all else is the ability to raise the level of play of those surrounding him. Of course, it's easier when there is better talent surrounding that quarterback and teams have found under the current collective bargaining agreement that it really isn’t too hard to surround a quarterback on a rookie contract with talent, given how much of a bargain that player can be financially, compared to allocating a massive portion of the cap towards the position, but that quarterback still must at least be competent.
It was rather obvious that once Lock stepped on the field in Week 13 versus the Chargers that he had the potential to be ‘that guy’ for the Broncos, for 2020 at the very least. He raised the level of play of his offensive line, showing athleticism to escape and pick up yards with his legs, as well as buying time and making plays outside of structure while finding players beyond the first read.
Lock still has plenty to improve upon over the offseason, but from a macro view, it appears he was able to raise the level of play of the entire offense over the last five games of the season.
Hamilton Slow to Get Going in 2019
While a number of different individual players saw their level of play improve once Lock took over, arguably no player saw a turnaround quite like Broncos’ second-year wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton. Hamilton was drafted by the Broncos in the 2018 draft with the 13th selection in the fourth round.
While not possessing the athletic upside to dominate like Courtland Sutton, many draftniks believed Hamilton had a chance to be a real steal because he was such a nuanced and advanced route runner coming out of Penn State. Typically, if any trait has translated well to the NFL for wide receivers in recent history, it has been route runners who can create separation.
With the addition of Joe Flacco, who has arm talent but had been trending toward being more of a middle-of-field/quick pass quarterback, many assumed Hamilton could take a step forward in his second season after finishing the last four games of 2018 very strong, notching a total of 25 receptions on 38 targets for 182 yards and two touchdowns, which averaged out to 6.25 catches on 9.5 targets and 45.5 yards per game. Hamilton wasn’t the most effective with his targets, only recording 4.79 yards per target and 7.28 yards per reception, but still, the output from a fourth-round rookie was promising.
Unfortunately, Hamilton did not initially build off his solid final quarter of the 2018 season and, while still receiving some volume in the pass game, became more of an afterthought under both Flacco and three-game starter Brandon Allen, earning 11 catches (one per game) on 24 targets (2.18 per game), 106 receiving yards (9.63 per game) and an unfortunate 4.42 yards per target and 9.63 yards per reception.
Was this because of the absence of Emmanuel Sanders from Weeks 14-17 in 2018? Was it the Broncos offense simply being inept? Or was it due to Hamilton simply not doing enough to help himself?
The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, but Hamilton was not living up the level of play the team had hoped he would bring year two.
However, much like in 2018, Hamilton began to turn the narrative around down the stretch. From Weeks 13-17, catching passes from Lock, Hamilton saw a spike in all of his numbers, hauling in 17 receptions (3.4 per game) on 28 targets (5.6 per game), for 191 yards (38.2 per game), and one touchdown, while earning 11.24 yards per reception and 6.82 yards per target.
Further digging into how Hamilton played down the stretch, he saved his best for last over the final two weeks of the regular season. While it is a very small sample size against two horrid secondaries in Detroit and Oakland, Hamilton was a huge part of the Broncos' passing offense over the final two weeks, with 11 catches (5.5 per game) on 12 targets (6 per game) for 130 yards (65 yards per game), a touchdown, and very solid receiving rate stats for his play-style in 10.83 yards per target and 11.82 yards per reception.
Again, how much of this was due to Sanders being gone? And how much of it was because the Broncos inserted Lock? Therein lies the ultimate answer.
Pros & Cons
There is no doubt that Hamilton played well down the stretch in 2019. As the de facto WR2 once Sanders was traded, he seemed to improve each week as his role expanded and especially as he gained chemistry and confidence from Lock. A very sound route runner, Hamilton is also a very underrated and underappreciated blocker and has been viewed as a solution to beating zone coverage.
He can be an effective option from the slot and Z receiver positions. However, with Courtland Sutton set to be the Broncos’ WR1 from the X position for the foreseeable future, does Hamilton bring enough to be a quality WR2?
Broncos Need 'Juice'
The answer again, for an ideal situation, is ‘probably not’. There is no doubt that Hamilton has a skill-set that the Broncos need and can use as a mover of the chains and a middle-of-the-field option in beating zone coverage, but if the Broncos are going to ‘build the nest’ around Lock and give him some talent to lean on while he grows and develops on his rookie contract, the team should be looking for more ‘juice’ from the WR2 position.
Many will associate this 'juice' with speed. As I noted before the 2019 season began, the Kyle Shanahan West Coast Offense has often demanded a true speed option in the passing game to open things up. From jet sweeps and screens to pushing the ball vertically on the boundary and, perhaps even more importantly, up the seam from the slot, one would assume by association that the West Coast Offense under Rich Scangarello would demand speed just like it does under Shanahan.
There will be a chance for Denver to select some speed options in the draft, most notably Henry Ruggs III, Jalen Reagor, and K.J. Hamler. However, it’s more important to find an impactful player to compliment Sutton and Hamilton than it is to be ‘speed or bust’.
Just as the Niners are showing down the stretch this season, explosiveness doesn’t have to be from speed but can also be from players that are dynamic after the catch. Given the massive success of Deebo Samuel for the Niners this season, a player that can be truly dynamic after the catch and create explosive plays from easy, quick passes can be huge.
Players without 4.3-speed but who can create explosive plays after the catch such as Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Laviska Shenault, Jr. could also provide a much-needed element to the offense that Hamilton simply does not possess. Of course, the Broncos’ do not have to go wide receiver in round one, which is possible for all the players listed, but finding more dynamic ability for Lock to lean on is imperative in building the nest for 2020.
The Best Ball of his Career Not Enough
Hamilton played well down the stretch for the Broncos this past season. After struggling to find much of a role to start the season, and for some reason not being targeted by Flacco to the point of seemingly being invisible to the quarterback, Hamilton eventually stepped up and played the best ball of his career to close out the season.
Furthermore, the connection between Lock and Hamilton showed promise and enters the offseason trending in the right direction. Hamilton is a smart football player, a solid route runner, has good ability to find soft spots and make himself available against zone coverage, and is a really solid blocker for a receiver. He is still young and cheap and undoubtedly has a role with the Broncos going into 2020.
However, does Hamilton bring enough to be even an average WR2 for the Broncos’ offense, let alone a great option opposite Sutton? Again, Hamilton's play to date in the NFL points to ‘probably not’.
While he should be in the Broncos’ plans next season, he just has not shown enough dynamic ability to be projected as anything beyond a solid WR3. Given how teams in the modern NFL utilize wide receivers, not only with a high rate of three-WR sets, but also rotating receivers per snap, that is valuable and an important role for the Broncos’ offense going forward.
However, Hamilton simply hasn’t shown enough to have any hopes or dreams placed on him of being anything more than a good WR3 in the NFL. Considering his limitations as an explosive threat, Hamilton doesn’t possess a trump-card trait to be ‘the guy’ opposite Sutton.
Bottom Line
There is nothing wrong with being a good WR3 and a solid role player, but the Broncos should be looking at every avenue to make sure the offense has someone with more dynamic ability to play a majority of the WR2 snaps going forward opposite Sutton. If the Broncos can find someone to compliment Sutton and Hamilton, on top of Noah Fant and Tim Patrick, then look out.
Lock will have to show he can continue to raise all ships if he is to be ‘the guy’ for the now and the future, but building a nest of dynamic players for him to lean on while he continues to learn and grow in the league? Now that is building the nest.
Empower the young quarterback and give him the means to be the best he can be. That means not resting on the Hamilton laurels and getting busy in scouting the 2020 draft class.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
