Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
Four Reasons Free Agency Won't be Broncos' Best Path to Upgrading the O-Line
The offensive line has been a problem area for the Denver Broncos the past few seasons. It's a combination of both certain individuals not living up to expectations and the unit itself not playing well together, largely because of coaching.
One good thing is that the Broncos have addressed the coaching issue by hiring Mike Munchak. He's helped a number of players improve, though talent level remains an issue. But while it will be tempting to try to fix the problem in free agency, it's important to remember that not every attempt to fix it in free agency has panned out.
Some will find it easy to say that GM John Elway simply doesn't know how to evaluate offensive linemen, but that's overly simplistic. It's true Elway has missed quite a bit on free agent offensive linemen, with a couple of exceptions.
However, the way to solve the problem is to look at the 'why' that isn't simply explained away by 'because Elway'. Failure to look at the 'why' means you don't really solve the problem.
Let's examine why it's best for the Broncos to avoid going 'all in' on free agency in 2020 and need to either look for value later on, then focus on the draft.
Offensive Tackle
Both offensive tackle positions have been a source of frustration for Broncos fans in 2019. Garett Bolles has manned the left tackle position for three seasons and has drawn 30 penalties (and 14 that were declined) in his career thus far. He struggled with his development early and, while he's gotten better with that, the penalties he continues to draw make him somebody you can't count on as the long-term solution.
Meanwhile, the Broncos thought they have solved their right tackle issues with the signing of Ja'Wuan James. But James has played just 63 snaps this year, thanks to a left knee injury that hasn't gotten better. Plus, head coach Vic Fangio has shown hints of frustration regarding James' lack of availability.
Fans would be correct to say that giving a lot of money to a player with an extensive injury history is too great a risk, and that does apply to James. However, it wasn't just his injury history that made him a risky signing. It was the fact he led a group of free-agent offensive tackles that was thin in terms of talent.
When the talent pool in free agency is thin, the best player available tends to get paid big money, even if he isn't an elite player. Thus, you see the Giants throwing big money at Nate Solder, a good player in decline, and the Raiders paying big money to Trent Brown, who has played well but it's debatable whether he should be the highest-paid tackle in the NFL.
Combine this with previous right tackle signings that didn't work out for the Broncos, those being Donald Stephenson and Menelik Watson. The two were similar in that they were depth players with a small sample size of starts, but got multi-year deals for starter money because they were considered scheme fits.
What you have is a major 'why' with what's wrong Elway's approach to free agency — he has been too aggressive in going after certain players, rather than being patient and looking for value. He might not have found top talent by waiting out the market, but he at least could hedge his bets a bit by keeping costs and contract length to more reasonable terms.
That brings us to the offensive tackle market for this offseason. The outlook isn't good at left tackle, with Anthony Castonzo being the only player truly worth pursuing. The other options are either aging players or short-term guys, with one exception — D.J. Humphries — who happens to have an extensive injury history and, thus, comes with the same risk James came with.
I'm sure Broncos fans are not happy with the James experiment, so then they should ask themselves this: do you really want to risk that again with Humphries?
This is particularly true when you look at how the market for left tackles could take shape. Taylor Lewan got $16M per year on his recent extension with the Titans. Castonzo will be in line for more than that.
Imagine what happens if there's a bidding war for Humphries among teams desperate to get a left tackle. If James got $12.75M per year, it's easy to see Humphries pushing for $13M or more.
There will be others who push for a Trent Williams trade again, but that also carries risk, especially if the Washington Redskins keep insisting on too much compensation. Williams has had a fine career, but you don't pay aging players based on past production — you pay based on what you expect in the future from them and, at this point, it's not clear how many more years Williams has left.
Right now, I wouldn't give up more than a fourth-round pick for Williams, and I'm certainly not going to give him a big extension. If Washington won't come down on its asking price, there's no point in doing business.
Bolles hasn't been great by any means, but with regards to free agency and trades, he's better than most alternatives. The draft is a different story, but for the time being, the Broncos need to keep Bolles around.
As for James, the Broncos are likely going to have to ride out his contract next season and hope he gets healthy. Cutting him would be an expensive blow (James is due $10M in fully guaranteed base salary) but it's an option that wouldn't hurt the Broncos ability to improve the team otherwise. However, free agency isn't really the answer at right tackle, either, with Bryan Bulaga likely to re-set the market and the rest of the players not worth a big contract.
If Trent Brown is worth $16.5M per year, Bulaga could push to that level, too. Imagine what happens if teams get too aggressive for players who aren't as good as Bulaga. It's not hard to figure out that being too aggressive to get a tackle in free agency could do more harm than good.
Simply put, the draft is going to be the best to get better options at offensive tackle. I previously wrote that the Broncos were going to need to get an offensive tackle in the 2020 draft, because they would have to prepare for the likelihood that either Bolles or James would be gone after 2020, regardless of how either one performed this and next year. The Broncos shouldn't reach for need, but they should watch the draft board carefully to see if the value is there when it comes time to pick.
Interior O-Line
As for interior offensive line, the Broncos are settled with Dalton Risner at left guard and are likely to move on from right guard Ronald Leary by declining his team option for 2020. There will be some temptation to get upgrades in free agency.
Once again, though, the free-agent market isn't really the best place to go. It's true that Brandon Scherff would be a great addition to the Broncos. However, he will be the best of what is otherwise average talent at best at offensive guard. And that means Scherff is likely to re-set the market at the position.
The top-paid guards are averaging $14M or more per season. Are you prepared to give $15M or more to Scherff? Some might say yes, but that means you can't go 'all in' at another position, say, cornerback, in which the free-agent class should be deep in terms of talent.
When a free agent class is deeper in terms of talent, you are more likely to get a better deal. When it's not, you could wind up committing more than you should to a position.
At center, the Broncos have a pending free agent in Connor McGovern. He's a solid but not great player. But the top centers are getting deals exceeding $10M per year.
Once again, center isn't deep in terms of talent. Graham Glasgow is a talented center, but he's likely to re-set the market at his position, perhaps pushing for $11M per year. After that are players who are either like McGovern or who are worse.
As with offensive tackle, there's a very real chance that the best available players are going to get big money and could drive up salaries for other interior linemen. That means free agency isn't going to be an attractive option for the Broncos if they want to avoid overpaying for talent.
The good news is that the Broncos seem to be faring better with development of interior lineman. Austin Schlottmann was good in his first NFL start and, if he keeps playing well, he would give the Broncos a solid option on a cheap contract.
Elijah Wilkinson has struggled at right tackle, but played well at guard last season. Wilkinson is a restricted free agent, but could be given either the right-of-first-refusal tender or signed to a cheap one-year deal. That could give the Broncos two inexpensive options for the interior line alongside Risner.
Of course, the draft can be an option for the interior line, or there might be some street free agents who become available. One to keep an eye on is Alex Mack, who is in danger of being cut by the Atlanta Falcons, who will be tight on cap space and will need to clear space just to sign their draft picks. Mack isn't the same player he was in his prime, but he's still a solid player and, if cut, would have to take less than the $9M per year he gets under his current deal.
However, we shouldn't rule out the possibility that McGovern stays with the Broncos — it just needs to be at the right price. McGovern is more comparable to the likes of Spencer Long of the Buffalo Bills and Ben Jones of the Tennessee Titans.
Long got a three-year deal averaging $4.2M per year and Jones got a two-year extension (he had a year left on his previous deal) averaging $6.75M per year. I would be fine with a three-year deal averaging $7M per year for McGovern, which puts him at the lower end for veteran center salaries.
Bottom Line
To summarize, what makes the most sense for the Broncos to do this offseason to address the offensive line is this:
• Keep Bolles and James, but the former should have his fifth-year option declined (it may be injury-only guaranteed and Bolles has mostly stayed healthy, but you want to send the message he needs to keep proving himself) and the latter needs to get surgery on his knee done.
• When it comes to free-agent offensive tackles, stay out of the first wave, but once the market settles down, you can look for a veteran to sign to a one-year, low-cost deal, but no more than that. Don't trade for anybody unless you get a player for a day three pick. Then make the draft your focus for finding an offensive tackle who, at the very least, can be developed for a year and start in 2021.
• Decline Leary's team option and, once again, look for value if you go explore free agency for another guard, or stick to developing younger players. If you really want to go 'all in' on Scherff, keep in mind you are sacrificing another position in which the talent pool may be greater.
• Bring back McGovern at the right price, but don't go more than $7M per year. If he wants more, let him walk and focus on either street free agents, developing younger players or the draft to find a replacement.
I can understand the need to upgrade the offensive line, but everyone needs to know when it's the right time to hit free agency hard and when it's better to pass on the market. Being too aggressive has cost John Elway in the past. He can't afford to do it any longer — meaning Broncos fans can't afford to insist he "make a splash" because they want a quick fix to the problem.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
