Gut Reaction: Von Miller Will Miss the 2020 Season | Now What?
Broncos Country is reeling.
The Denver Broncos were rocked on Tuesday afternoon when star pass rusher Von Miller went down with an ankle injury. In one of the last plays of practice, the injury bug jumped up and bit Miller in what has been described as a 'freak' incident.
Multiple reports said that Miller has already undergone an initial MRI and the result 'doesn't look good'. KUSA's Mike Klis reported later on Tuesday that it appears to be a tendon in his ankle and that a clear diagnosis and subsequent prognosis wouldn't be known until Thursday when Miller travels to meet with Dr. Robert Anderson in Green Bay.
However, fans' worst fears were confirmed when Klis reported Tuesday evening that the Broncos believe Miller has indeed suffered a season-ending injury.
As Broncos Country braces for confirmation later in the week, all that's left is to sort through the implications of Miller's loss and look to how the Broncos might pick up the pieces of a 2020 season potentially sans one of the greatest pass rushers in the game.
At age 31, Miller might no longer be in his prime but he's still a force to be reckoned with. Even if you believe based on his sub-par eight-sack 2019 campaign that he's lost a step, Miller remains a presence on the edge that opposing offenses have to game-plan around.
He's a focal point that opponents no longer have to consider. Losing such a presence obviously puts pressure on other spots on the Broncos' defense and the onus on the coaches and backups to bridge the gap.
Don't Expect Miracles from Chubb
The thought of potentially losing a player of Miller's magnitude might not sting so badly if the belief was that Bradley Chubb was entering the 2020 regular season fully recovered from the torn ACL he suffered in Week 4 of last season.
Unfortunately, after Chubb's apparent setback during the Broncos' first stadium scrimmage about a week and a half ago, it would be unrealistic to expect him to step onto the field in Week 1 and be a full-time presence on the edge. Best-case scenario? Chubb is able to contribute early on and by the second quarter of the season, has his game legs beneath him, and can be relied upon to carry the brunt of the pass-rush burden.
For now, that's not something the Broncos can count on. Not yet. Chubb will be on a pitch count of sorts to open up the season and if all goes well, the coaches will steadily increase his snap share with the ultimate goal of getting him back to full-time starter status.
While I caution fans not to expect a miracle from Chubb for the reasons laid out above, crises such as this are often the crucible in which stars are forged. There is a chance that Chubb could bounce back sooner than expected and go on to reinforce his status as the No. 5 overall pick in the 2018 draft.
Meantime, if Miller is indeed going to miss the season, the onus initially falls on Jeremiah Attaochu and second-year pro Malik Reed. The good news is, Attaochu flourished in Vic Fangio's scheme down the stretch last year, prompting the Broncos to re-sign him to a one-year deal, while Reed was one of the stars of 2020 training camp, one season removed from entering the NFL as a college free agent out of Nevada.
Expecting either Attaochu or Reed to fill the shoes of Miller is unrealistic but in the NFL, such tumultuous moments can have unforeseen galvanizing effects — both on individual players and the team overall. In combination with whatever contributions Chubb can offer initially, there's hope that this threesome can tackle Miller's absence with a kind of 'it takes a village' collective resolve.
However, because Chubb's future is unclear, it's almost a given that the Broncos will look to add a rush linebacker to the roster from outside the building. The free-agent pool offers some veteran options, and you never know what a silver-tongued general manager like John Elway could accomplish on the trade market.
Outside Options
After all, Elway pried five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey off of the Tennessee Titans' hands for a pittance. A proven edge rusher like Ryan Kerrigan in Washington, who's entering a contract year on the heels of a lackluster 2019 campaign, would likely command more than the seventh-round pick Elway gave up to acquire Casey. But for what it's worth, Elway got that seventh-rounder back by trading cornerback Isaac Yiadom.
Kerrigan is a player to watch if indeed Thursday confirms that Miller is lost for the season. Washington media fully expect Kerrigan to hit the bricks next spring as an unrestricted free agent, with the likes of Chase Young and Montez Sweat set to carry on as the team's pass-rushing tandem of the future.
Washington could be more inclined to dish Kerrigan now and get something in exchange for him, rather than watch him depart next spring with only a potential compensatory pick to console them. Taken 14 picks after Miller in the first round of the 2011 draft, Kerrigan is 32 years old and only posted 5.5 sacks in 12 starts last season.
Kerrigan has become expendable in Washington but local beat reporters believe he's out to prove his worth in 2020. If the Broncos were inclined to explore a trade, that chip on his shoulder could be channeled to big returns in the Mile High City.
There a few free agents to consider, too, including known names like Terrell Suggs, Clay Matthews, Cameron Wake, and Ezekiel Ansah. Suggs is 37 years old but produced 6.5 sacks in Arizona last year in 13 starts, while Wake is 38 and only produced 2.5 sacks in Tennessee last year in nine games.
Matthews is 34 and notched eight sacks last year in Los Angeles but seems to be a steep decline. Ansah is 31 and although he only produced 2.5 sacks in 11 games last year in Seattle, he's significantly younger than any of the other known commodities.
Honestly, Matthews would be the best bet, followed by Ansah, though neither option would be ideal. All we can measure is their most recent impact and those two stand out, though Ansah's most recent contributions were lackluster.
Cap Space
According to Over The Cap, in the wake of cutting linebacker Todd Davis, the Broncos have $25.6 million in salary-cap space. While the team hoped to hold onto most of that and roll it over into a 2021 season that is sure to suffer from the revenue losses of 2020, Elway might have to use a chunk of it in the short-term to bolster the rush linebacker depth.
All is Not Lost
However the Broncos adjust and account for the loss of Miller, it's important to remember that this season was always going to come down to Drew Lock and the offense.
Yes, the need for Fangio's defense to provide a smothering pass rush and coverage was always going to be there, but as fans have realized in the post-Super Bowl 50 era, without a franchise-caliber quarterback, all the healthy Vons and Chubbs in the world won't forestall the Broncos from missing the playoffs.
The Broncos can roll with the Miller punches but it does put more pressure on Lock to carry the load. Lock's five-game debut last season proved that he has the 'it' factor and rare arm talent.
But it also showed a maturity that belied his relative youth. Lock oozes intangibles, which should give fans hope that he can meet elevated expectations in a Miller-less 2020 season.
Adding additional rays of hope to that thought, the Broncos prepared for an offensive-centric 2020 campaign by building the nest around Lock with the likes of first-round wideout Jerry Jeudy and second-rounder KJ Hamler, as well as the addition of Pro Bowl running back Melvin Gordon, and veteran tight end Nick Vannett.
Throw in an impressive young center in Lloyd Cushenberry and an $11 million right guard in Graham Glasgow, and the Broncos did just about everything conceivable to give Lock the best chance to succeed in 2020. None of that mentions the arrival of veteran offensive coaches Pat Shurmur and Mike Shula, whom the Broncos expect to shepherd Lock into a Year 2 quantum leap.
Bottom Line
Losing Miller is going to hurt. But the Broncos have the cap space to maneuver now and the assets to barter on the trading block.
Elway worked a miracle in 2013 when Miller opened the season with a six-game suspension and ended with a torn ACL by landing Shaun Phillips, who came in and produced double-digit sacks for the Broncos without Von or Elvis Dumervil, whom the Broncos had lost to 'Fax-gate' in the offseason. Elway will have to adapt or die once again as a front-office czar and history suggests he can pull it off.
At the end of the day, though, a true franchise quarterback is the tide that raises all boats. If Lock is the truth, the Broncos will not only survive the loss of Miller, they'll thrive.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
