Has Broncos GM John Elway Moved on From Key Players a Year too Early or a Year too Late?
The NFL is a constantly changing league. Given the number of players shuffling in and out of 53-man rosters due to age, injury, and just simply being replaced by emerging young talent, most players’ staying power in the age of free agency and non-guaranteed contracts is minimal.
There is a reason why the NFL has been tagged with the moniker, ‘Not For Long’. Rosters, situations, and teams overturn rapidly in the competitive environment and physically grueling landscape of the National Football League.
Every fanbase is subject to this fallacy. Broncos Country is no different, especially given how easy it would be to reach back into the past with a familiar face, remembering what that player ‘was’ as opposed to what they currently are, and chastising the team's decision making. The Denver Broncos' front office deserves plenty of criticism to be certain, but moving on from players that were once on a successful team? Perhaps not.
In the era of the New England Patriots’ dominance of the NFL, a bit of Bill Belichick gold that has disseminated across the league is the mantra ‘it’s better to move on from a player a year too early than a year too late.’ Let’s take a look back on some of the more prominent players the Broncos have ‘controversially’ let walk over the recent seasons to see how GM John Elway has been doing in this department.
Eric Decker
After the 2013 season, the Denver Broncos let the high-performing WR Eric Decker depart in free agency. During his four years in Denver, Decker started in 44 games, hauled in 222 receptions for 3,070 yards and 33 touchdowns. Despite his run-ins with the turf monster, Decker was a highly efficient No. 2 weapon in the offense.
However, after leaving Denver for a five-year, $36.25 million contract for the Jets, Decker’s play dropped off over the next four seasons, starting 49 games, bringing in 217 receptions, 2,746 yards, and 20 touchdowns. During this time, Decker’s yards-per-target, yards-per-reception, and touchdown rate all fell off in comparison to his seasons in Denver.
Not only did the Broncos do a good job in deciding to move on from Decker, but they also replaced him with a cheaper and more explosive option in Emmanuel Sanders who has been a constant weapon for Denver in the years post-Decker. A win for the Broncos in this decision.
Julius Thomas
The Broncos faced another decision the following offseason in whether to retain Peyton Manning’s favorite red-zone weapon in TE Julius Thomas. Coming off a solid 25 games started in Denver in which he had 109 receptions, 1,282 yards, and 24 touchdowns the Broncos elected to let Julius Thomas walk to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a massive five-year, $46 million contract.
The following three seasons, which made the end of Thomas’ career, Thomas started 20 games bringing in 193 receptions for 1,124 yards, and 12 touchdowns. Much like Decker, the yards-per-reception, target, and touchdown rate all plummeted outside of Denver leading one to question how much of either’s ability in Denver was the system (and Manning) compared to their individual contributions.
Decker and Thomas were good players, no doubt, but Elway was wise to let them walk.
Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan & Brock Osweiler
The Super Bowl 50 victory seems to have been the beginning of the end of the dominance of the Broncos. This is unsurprising when arguably the greatest quarterback of all-time rides off into the sunset.
Also not helping the Broncos, and something typical following a Super Bowl win, was the poaching of the roster. With Von Miller setting up to cash in following his Super Bowl MVP performance, the Broncos ended up letting the following players walk in free agency: Malik Jackson (six-year, $85.5M contract), Danny Trevathan (four-year, $28M contract), and Brock Osweiler (four-year, $72M contract).
The Broncos did attempt to resign Osweiler, but they had a stick amount in mind and wouldn’t budge. Lucky for them in all reality.
While Trevathan is one that many Broncos’ fans will look back on and reminisce about what could have been had they retained him, he was coming off of injury concerns in the 2014 season in which he only started one game and paired next to the ‘healthy’ Brandon Marshall, whom the Broncos paid instead of Trevathan. A miss there with the benefit of hindsight, however the type of signing that has snakebitten the Broncos in recent years, paying a player who seemingly possesses injury woes.
On the other hand, there was little ability given the cap restraints to retain Jackson. Jackson was a key cog during that Super Bowl run, but Derek Wolfe took a hometown discount and Jackson cashed in instead. Jackson no doubt benefited from great talent around him in Denver where he was an elite pass rusher, but in the years since his impact and value has dropped off a tad, while also winding up on the season-ending injury reserve list after one game this season.
T.J. Ward & Aqib Talib
2017 followed much of the same, as the Broncos continued a soft rebuild from their Super Bowl team cutting T.J. Ward and trading Aqib Talib. Ward was picked up by the Buccaneers after Denver cut him and started a total of five games where he made 41 combined tackles, 30 solo, one tackle for loss, and zero interceptions or forced fumbles. Ward is currently out of the league.
Furthermore, Talib, whom the Broncos’ traded for 2018 fifth-round pick to the Los Angeles Rams, has played a total of 13 games and been placed on the injured reserve twice in two seasons. Another seemingly aberration, the Broncos may have caught a stroke of luck during Talib’s Denver years because other than in the Mile High City, Talib has been in a constant battle with the injury bug.
At 33 years old on IR again, Denver seems to have moved on from him at just the right moment although have failed to replace the key member of the ‘No Fly Zone’.
Demaryius Thomas
The same can be said with Demaryius Thomas. Thomas is one of the two best wide receivers to ever play in Denver, but there is no defeating Father Time. Given the flashes of Courtland Sutton last season and a dwindling Thomas, the Broncos elected to ship off the veteran to the Houston Texans for a fourth-round pick.
Unfortunately, Thomas ended up suffering an Achilles injury last season and now looks like a shell of his former self. An all-time great in Denver, but again given the nature of the league and the young receivers needing reps, Denver did well to ship off Thomas when they did.
Shane Ray, Matt Paradis, Shaq Barrett
Finally comes the 2018 offseason where the fates are yet to be determined. It looks like Elway and the front office did well to part ways with Shane Ray, who is still on the market and was never the same after his wrist injury and Bradley Roby, who was inconsistent and is now heading for the injured reserve.
There will be some hand wringing no doubt surrounding Matt Paradis, of whom Denver was concerned about his longevity and although is doing ‘okay’ for Carolina, he's allowing a surprisingly high rate of pressures. Fans also remain bitter about Denver letting Shaq Barrett walk, arguably the Defensive MVP of the first quarter of the season.
Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight Denver doesn’t draft Chubb, which made it next to impossible to retain Barrett who wanted to and absolutely deserved a chance to start, but with Von Miller already on the team and their reportedly No. 1 overall player on the board in Bradley Chubb available at pick five, circumstance didn’t play out in a way that it made sense for Barrett to return, despite Denver making attempts to retain the local product.
Barrett is fantastic and is off to a hot start, but it would be silly and myopic to pick him over a Chubb and Miller combination heading into this past offseason.
The Takeaway
The Broncos, despite a two-game winning streak, are still a team sitting at 2-4 six weeks through the season. That is a team that has a long way to go to become a playoff contender.
From poor draft classes, to poor coaching hires, to misses in free agency, etc, the Broncos have made decisions that have led them to the results of their current team. The front office absolutely deserves its fair share of criticism for it.
However, given the recent output of many of the familiar faces the Broncos have let walk, much to the chagrin of many fans, Denver has done well in moving on from players when the time was right.
Outside of Danny Trevathan and Shaquil Barrett (with the small sample size and important to understand set of circumstances), John Elway has followed the model of ‘move on from a player a year too early rather than a year too late', despite rosy retrospection and trying to capture ‘the gold old days’ NFL teams must move forward.
Teams must look to move forward and evolve rather than continually trying to reach back and hold onto the past. Keep this in mind as father time counts down on fan favorites such as Chris Harris, Jr., Emmanuel Sanders, and yes, even at some point, Von Miller. Father Time remains undefeated in the ‘Not For Long’ league and the Broncos must keep moving forward in order to succeed.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
