How Elway's Last two Draft Classes Could Rival his First two as Broncos GM
In John Elway's first two years leading the front office, the Denver Broncos had two of their best draft classes. Many of the players drafted in 2011 and 2012 became important contributors to at least some degree on the Broncos teams that reached the playoffs for five straight seasons.
The Broncos hit a dry spell with more recent drafts, particularly 2015 and 2017 overall and with their first-round pick in 2016. But the past two years, the Broncos have done quite well with their draft haul — and it's a two-year draft haul that could eclipse what the Broncos had in Elway's first two years.
I've previously talked about minimum expectations for draft picks in each round, but let's go over them again.
First Round: Long-term starter who gets extended beyond their rookie deal. The higher the pick, the more it needs to be an impact player.
Second Round: Short-term starter who is ideally extended beyond their rookie deal, though that might not happen if a player taken later or an undrafted player becomes worthy of a big extension.
Third Round: Quality contributor for at least two seasons, though he may not get extended if your first- and second-round picks work out, because you only have so much cap space available.
Fourth Round: Depth player who may be worth extending on a contract a depth player should get.
Fifth-Seventh Rounds: Depth player at best.
Of course, there can be players who exceed expectations for a round, but let's set that aside for a moment and compare the 2011 and 2012 draft classes to the Broncos' 2018 and 2019 draft classes.
2011 & 2012
The Broncos made just one first-round selection in the two years and that happened to be the No. 2 overall pick. Of course, that's Von Miller, and there's no question he's become the long-term starter and impact player you expect from that pick.
The second-round selections made were Rahim Moore and Orlando Franklin in 2011 and Derek Wolfe and Brock Osweiler in 2012. Franklin was worth that pick and might have been extended had Chris Harris, Jr. not taken priority (undrafted 2011). Wolfe was worth the pick and got himself a second contract, for which he has been with the teams all four years.
Moore tends to get remembered for one play in particular, but he was a decent starter for most of his time with the team. Osweiler spent most of his four years as a backup, though to be fair, he was sitting behind Peyton Manning. Still, Moore wasn't as worthy of the pick as Franklin and Wolfe were and Osweiler didn't become the guy who could take over Manning.
In the third round, the Broncos took Nate Irving in 2011 and Ronnie Hillman in 2012. Irving wasn't really a busted pick, but he didn't contribute as much as expected. Hillman played at about the level you would expect for a third-round pick and his contributions to the 2015 team were important.
I won't go over all the players taken in later rounds, but the Broncos found, in 2011, Julius Thomas in the fourth round and Virgil Green in the seventh. The former was a Pro Bowl starter for two seasons, while the latter proved a good depth player and even got an extension and starting minutes — a pretty good return on investment for a seventh-rounder. Of course, the Broncos got themselves a pair of steals in 2012 with Malik Jackson in the fifth round and Danny Trevathan in the sixth.
So it's easy to see why those first two draft classes under Elway are among his best, especially when Miller, Green, Wolfe, Osweiler, Hillman, Jackson and Trevathan having all played parts in that 2015 season, capped with a Super Bowl win.
2018 & 2019
But when you look at the two most recent draft classes — particularly the first three rounds — there's a chance that these two draft classes could outdo the 2011 and 2012 classes, as long as they keep trending in the right direction.
Consider first-round picks Bradley Chubb (2018) and Noah Fant (2019). Chubb showed he could be an impact player as a rookie — a good sign for a player taken fifth overall. Fant had a typical season for rookie tight ends, but he's shown signs of being an impact player, setting Broncos' franchise records along the way. If both keep trending in the right direction, it would mean the first time Elway has hit it big in the first round in back-to-back drafts.
In the second round, we've already witnessed 2018 pick Courtland Sutton turn into an impact player. 2019 selection Dalton Risner has been a valuable contributor this season and looks like he can be an important part of the offensive line for seasons to come.
And there's plenty of buzz surrounding 2019 second-rounder Drew Lock. If he cements himself as the long-term starting quarterback, Elway will have a definite win.
More importantly, if all three second-round picks become franchise players, they'll exceed the net value of Elway's four second-round picks in 2011 and 2012.
In the third round, Elway found a solid contributor in 2018 in Royce Freeman, who has at least shown he can contribute at the level Hillman did. The jury is still out on Isaac Yiadom, the other 2018 third-rounder, but he's found his way back into the starting lineup and is playing better than he did to start the season.
But then look at 2019 third-round pick Dre'Mont Jones and you have a player who started the season inactive at times, but has since emerged into an important contributor — one who was just named the AFC Defensive Player of the Week (Week 16 v DET). Jones may be on his way to becoming one of Elway's best third-round picks to date.
Of course, the jury is still out on how much these players will do in the long term. But if at least five of the eight players Elway has taken in the first three rounds become long-term players — especially if Chubb, Fant and Lock are among them — Elway will have outperformed his draft showing from his first two seasons.
Throw in Josey Jewell and DaeSean Hamilton at least showing they can be good depth players (as fourth-round picks, it's fine if depth player is your ceiling) and Justin Hollins having shown flashes of the same (again, that's fine for a fifth-round pick) and that only makes the draft classes stronger.
Most of all, getting five long-term guys, with a burgeoning franchise quarterback among them, should get the Broncos back to the playoffs and, perhaps, the Super Bowl.
We'll know more about how the 2018 and 2019 draft classes measure up in the next couple of seasons. But one thing is clear; if the players keep proving themselves worth — or more than worth — the rounds they were selected, we'll be looking at two of Elway's best draft classes ever, ones that rival his first two.
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