Predicting What Broncos Will Have to Pay LT Garett Bolles if Pro-Bowl Performance Continues
The Denver Broncos declined the fifth-year option for offensive tackle Garett Bolles last spring. Bolles was the team's first-round pick of the 2017 NFL draft.
The Broncos declined the option despite Bolles' play improving down the stretch in the 2019 season. Fast forward to 2020 and Bolles has emerged as one of the top left tackles in the NFL.
Though he's coming off a less-than-stellar outing against Joey Bosa and the Chargers, in which he drew multiple penalties, Bolles has improved his technique and showed more consistency. Through eight games, he's posted a season worthy of the Pro Bowl.
Other left tackles such as Laremy Tunsil, Dion Dawkins and, most recently, Ronnie Stanley received extensions from their respective teams. That begs the question: What type of money could Bolles receive in an extension, based on all the latest developments?
Factors to Weigh
In order to really determine what Bolles will command in a contract, it's not enough to look at what other players are getting in deals. All factors need to be weighed to determine what he could really command in a new contract.
Of course, player agents will always try to get the best possible deal for their clients, but there will be factors working in Bolles' favor and factors that work against it. Having never missed a start and, he has stayed healthy throughout his career, continuing to play even through a minor knee injury his rookie season, and after hurting his elbow earlier this year. Nobody can question his willingness to get out onto the field and play.
Certainly, the fact that Bolles has improved over the course of his career works in his favor. While his improvement was slow at first, he really came into his own last season and now ranks among the best at his position.
On one hand, Bolles is much older than most players who were taken early in the 2017 draft. He'll be 29 years old next year, which could raise the question about much he has left in the tank. There is a mitigating factor to his age; offensive tackles have shown that they can play well into their mid-30s as long as they stay healthy. That means age may not be as much of a barrier in a new deal for Bolles.
On the other, Bolles has fewer years of high-quality play on his resume. For his first two seasons, he was average overall, doing a good job with run blocking, but with inconsistent play in pass protection, none of which mentions penalties he committed in his first three seasons.
There's also the fact that the NFL salary cap will likely be lower next season, meaning franchise tag numbers will drop. A lower tag number means a lower starting point for negotiations, should Bolles get the franchise tag. The current estimated tag for offensive linemen is a little more than $14 million for 2021.
All of this must be considered when figuring out what type of deal Bolles is going to get.
Players to Compare to Bolles
What we can do next is look at some of the contracts given to notable left tackles this past offseason and during this season. Let's go over a few of them.
D.J. Humphries | Arizona Cardinals: There's been some talk about giving Bolles a deal similar to Humphries, who got $44.25M over three years. Humphries got $13.9M fully guaranteed upon signing, then got an additional $15.1M fully guaranteed on March 31 of this year.
This really isn't the contract that Bolles is going to get, though. While Humphries was a more polished player when he was drafted, he's had an extensive injury history.
Also, the wording of the contract that basically gave Humphries his 2021 salary fully guaranteed before the 2020 season even began, is not likely to be included in Bolles' deal. Even so, I would expect Bolles to exceed the effective full guarantees that Humphries received.
Laremy Tunsil | Houston Texans: Then we need to consider the other end of the spectrum. When Bill O'Brien was running the front office for the Texans, he gave up a lot of draft capital to acquire Tunsil, and this past offseason gave him a $66M extension with $40M fully guaranteed.
The contract included his $10.8M base salary that was due under the fifth-year option, so the new fully guaranteed money is about $30M — a figure that could represent what Bolles gets in a new deal.
On the other hand, the average per year salary of $22M isn't something that should be considered. That APY salary stands as an outlier among left tackle deals. I wouldn't expect Bolles to approach that.
Anthony Castonzo | Indianapolis Colts: We can also consider what the Colts gave Castonzo, who agreed to a two-year deal for $33M that included $17M fully guaranteed.
Castonzo's $16.5M APY salary might be a mark that Bolles could hit, but he should exceed the full guarantees, largely because Bolles should get more than a two-year deal.
Dion Dawkins | Buffalo Bills: Dawkins was extended prior to the season. A second-round pick in 2017, he was a guard who converted to left tackle when Cordy Glenn was injured, then played well enough that the Bills later traded Glenn to the Bengals.
Dawkins has improved each season, leading to this extension, in which he got $29.5M fully guaranteed — almost all new money, because he was due a $1.25M base salary on his draft pick contract.
The contract averages $14.575M per year, which is a number Bolles is likely to exceed, but the full guarantees are comparable to the new money Tunsil got.
Ronnie Stanley | Baltimore Ravens: Finally, the Ravens extended Stanley last week. Not all the details are known about his contract, but here are a few things we do know.
First, Stanley was already receiving $12.8M in fully guaranteed money from the fifth-year option in his rookie deal. He got $68.57M in total guarantees which, per Albert Breer, includes this year's money.
Per this report from Ravens Wire, Stanley will get $47.1M before the start of next season, which includes his fifth-year option salary this year. That leaves a little more than $34M in new, fully guaranteed money, of which some certainly is in the form of a signing bonus this year, and there might be a roster bonus due early in the 2021 league year.
We'll know more as more details are revealed, but the new money is what matters. Stanley is at least getting $34M in new, fully guaranteed money, which is slightly more than what Tunsil and Dawkins got.
What It Means for Bolles
The Broncos won't necessarily have to pay Bolles a deal that resets the market — but they will have to give him at least $30M in fully guaranteed money if they are serious about extending him.
Having him play out the franchise tag could be an option, but it would be for the best for the Broncos to get a deal done this time around. Left tackle is a premium position, so the Broncos need to work harder to get something done, whether the tag is used or not.
It does make sense to ask Bolles to take less APY salary than what Stanley got, and certainly to take less APY salary that Tunsil got. But I see no way the Broncos get Bolles to take less than $30M in full guarantees.
It is possible to get a deal done that gives Bolles that much fully guaranteed money and still make it a contract that allows the Broncos to get out of the deal after two seasons if necessary.
There are, of course, concerns about how much the Broncos are willing to pay. However, after the team paid Ja'Wuan James a lot of money, including $27M in full guarantees, it won't be able to go too cheap with Bolles.
It's fair to ask whether the Broncos should have picked up his fifth-year option, but there was always the chances the Broncos extend him, anyway. Furthermore, his full guarantees would have been higher, because his agent would want to get more in new money. Take the fifth-year option for $11M, and $30M in new full guarantees means $41M in total full guarantees.
Regardless, while the Broncos may be able to avoid an APY salary that puts Bolles at the top of the left tackle list, the full guarantees are another issue. I would expect the latter to be the one area in which the Broncos won't be able to get a discount.
We'll see if Bolles can bounce back from Sunday's outing and continue to play at a level worthy of the Pro Bowl. He's still Pro Football Focus' third highest-graded left tackle even after having one bad game.
If Bolles does bounce back, he may not re-set the market, but he'll still be in line for a nice payday.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
