Analytics Answer Whether Broncos Have Found Their Long-Term Nickel CB
Over the last month, the Denver Broncos defense has undergone a massive turnaround, which is a welcome development after the horrific debacle in Miami in Week 3. In the Broncos' last three contests — including a pair of matchups with the Kansas City Chiefs — the defense has only surrendered 45 total points as it has figured out how to execute Vance Joseph’s scheme properly.
A big part of the Broncos' defensive turnaround has been the outstanding play of slot cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian, who was inserted into the starting lineup after the 70-point drubbing the Miami Dolphins handed out, leading to Essang Bassey's ouster and subsequent jettison. Since then, McMillian has been arguably the best defender on the field for the Broncos, making one big-time play after another out of the slot.
Part of what has made McMillian so fun to watch throughout his young career is his confidence in trusting his eyes, particularly in his run fits and against passes that go towards the flats. He reads his keys quickly, explodes upfield, and makes proper form tackles without allowing much, if any, yardage after contact.
“I love to tackle, especially to open-field tackle,” McMillian said on the KOA Sports Show following the victory against Kansas City last week. “It gives me energy. It gives the team energy. And any time it gives the team energy, we all go off of each other’s energy and are able to play better. You see somebody else make a play, it makes you want to make a play. And that’s contagious. That’s what’s been happening the last few games.”
According to our friends at Pro Football Focus, McMillian has seven total tackles against the run this season, all of which were constituted as a defensive stop. Those seven stops are the sixth-most of any of the 50 total cornerbacks that have played at least 61 run defense snaps this season. His 11.7% run-stop percentage is the highest of any of those players, and his average depth of tackle is the fourth-shortest at .7 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
McMillian has also made several massive plays in the passing game over the past few weeks, including a pair of open-field tackles in the first contest against the Chiefs, as well as baiting Patrick Mahomes into an interception a couple of weeks ago. McMillian is becoming more and more comfortable in coverage, and he is taking to the coaching points he's been given over the past few weeks, as he described to the crew at KOA.
“We were in a Cover-2, and I just remember us going over in practice that I needed to show down and give a different look of the Cover 2," McMillian explained. “So I made it look like I was press, and as soon as the ball was snapped, I just bailed out of there. I saw the No. 3 receiver; he kind of went inside. I felt him go inside, so I knew it had to be some type of in-breaking route. Once Kelce kind of got behind me, I just, we call it play two by two to the hash, and I made a play on the ball. He threw it, and I made a play.”
While McMillian has shined as a run supporter, he has been equally as impressive in coverage from the slot. 19 total players in the NFL have played at least 138 total snaps in coverage playing in the slot, and McMillian has been as good as anybody out there.
Despite being targeted at the sixth-highest rate per coverage snap (6.3%) of those 19 players, McMillian has only allowed 15 receptions on 22 targets. Those 15 receptions on 138 total coverage snaps translate into the seventh-highest snap per reception rate (9.2%).
Making things even better for McMillian is his .91 yards per snap allowed in coverage, which is the fifth-lowest of those 19 players. To make it easier to follow, McMillian is targeted frequently, doesn’t allow an overabundance of receptions when targeted, and limits yards after the catch when he does allow a reception.
While advanced analytics don’t always tell the full story of how a player is truly performing on the field, taking a deep dive into the numbers can help you understand how much impact he can have on a unit. McMillian has quietly turned into one of the top performers at the slot cornerback position over the past five games.
Watching McMillian's tape is a true pleasure because he plays the game the right way, bringing a high football IQ to the field as well as a physical and intense demeanor. Although it came due to K’Waun Williams' injury and poor play from Bassey, the Broncos seem to have found a long-term answer at slot cornerback.
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