Analytics Reveal Broncos Need More Out of RB Javonte Williams
The good times in the Mile High City are rolling as the Denver Broncos are the current owners of the longest winning streak in the entire NFL. After rolling off victories against the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Minnesota Vikings in somewhat improbable fashion, Denver is squarely back in the playoff hunt with a 5-5 record.
On the back of an incredible takeaway stretch — with 12 in three games — the highest number of forced turnovers in a three-game stretch dating back to 1997, and the clutch play of Russell Wilson and the offense in the fourth quarter, can the Broncos sustain their momentum and scrap their way to a Wildcard berth?
The reality of the situation is that the rate of takeaways is unsustainable. With emphasis on turnovers by the defense and the best return game in the NFL this season thanks to Marvin Mims Jr., Denver will likely continue to have good opportunities to score via field position, but the offense will need to better capitalize on them and move the football more efficiently going forward.
One Bronco, in particular, needs to drastically improve his efficiency for Denver to make a true run at the playoffs… and that player is not Wilson.
The Broncos need more from running back Javonte Williams. Of course, this is 100% an unfair ask of the third-year back.
Williams suffered a torn ACL, LCL, and PCL just under 14 months ago in a road loss versus the Las Vegas Raiders. It's miraculous he was able to play in the 2023 season at all, let alone take snaps Week 1 this year and 343 days since his traumatic injury.
Williams put in the work this offseason to be in a position to contribute this year, which is a testament to his work ethic and the leaps of modern science. If he is to remain the Broncos' first-string running back, though, carrying the ball 122 times and totaling 62.5% of Denver’s running back touches this season, the Broncos need more from him from an effectiveness and efficiency standpoint.
Even dating back to his rookie season in 2021, Williams was more of a boom-or-bust style runner. His vision for run lanes and space led to an inconsistent overall approach, but if he read the flow correctly could lead to exciting results in the run game.
Per Pro Football Focus, Williams notched 25 'explosive runs' in 2021, defined as a rush that nets 10-plus yards, ranking seventh in the NFL, and running for an explosive on 12.3% of his total carries. He was also breaking tackles at a fantastic rate, ranking second in the NFL with 25 and seventh in yards-after-contact per attempt at 3.42 among backs with at least 100 carries. Williams' pace for this season is well off the output displayed in his rookie year.
For 2023, Williams is tied for 12th with 12 rushes for 10-plus yards (tied with seven other backs), 19th in missed tackles at 21, and 19th for yards-after-contact-per-attempt at 2.79. He's still playing an exceedingly physical style of football, but he's not breaking tackles, staying on his feet, and creating yardage after contact as he did prior to his injury.
Williams' rushing efficiency statistics have also been rather poor through 10 games this year. Per Sumer Sports' NFL statistical database, out of running backs with at least 60 carries in 2023, Williams ranks:
- 31st in EPA/Rush at -0.11
- 34th in Success Rate at 36.1%
- 29th in tackle for loss at 9.7%
- 31st in Explosive Rush Rate at 5.6%
- 37th in First Down Percentage at 5.6%.
NFL.com’s Next Gen Sports are also low on Williams' output so far this season. His rushing yards over expected ranks 30th at -15 and 30th in rushing yards over expected divided by attempts at -0.13.
Williams has also not had the most difficult task in opponents’ prioritization in stopping the run, as he has only rushed against eight-plus-man boxers on 13.93% of his runs, ranking 35th in the NFL. Teams aren’t disrespecting Wilson and the explosive pass game from a defensive scheme approach, so in theory, Williams should have room to run.
Denver’s offensive line also appears to be doing its job effectively. While unit and player grades are subjective, looking at the ranking of units across a multitude of platforms should do a serviceable job of ranking teams in the relative neighborhood of where a true grade is.
For the Broncos’ offensive line and run blocking, Denver has a cumulative ranking of 13th in the NFL when averaging run-blocking grades from PFF, Sports Info Solutions, and ESPN.
The Broncos' offensive line could, of course, be better, but earning a slightly above-average placement in run blocking indicates it's not the main culprit in Denver’s lack of efficiency in the run game.
To be fair to Williams, the Broncos are rushing the ball at a higher than league average rate sporting a Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) of -3.21% and ranking as the ninth-highest rushing team for the statistic this season. The Broncos want to run the ball, and opponents know that. Therefore, it's not totally surprising Williams’ efficiency in the run game has been unspectacular.
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So what is Denver to do?
The truth of the matter is that the Broncos don't have a better approach than continuing to play Williams and hope he can return to form more similar to that of his rookie season. Samaje Perine has been incredible in the pass game, most recognized for how he has contributed as a receiver out of the backfield over Denver’s recent winning streak. Honestly, though, Perine is most impressive and valuable due to his incredible impact as a pass protector in the backfield.
With Perine only accounting for 119 yards on 29 carries so far this season, his rushing output and efficiency stats as a rusher have been near the bottom of the league. He's so valuable in the passing game that he will continue to earn snaps, but he likely isn’t a good option for receiving more touches to help a rushing attack that needs to be more efficient.
On the other hand, undrafted rookie sensation Jaleel McLaughlin, has been one of the most explosive and efficient running backs in football, ranking fourth in yards per attempt at 6.1, sixth in yards after contact per attempt at 3.77, and tallying an explosive rush on 18.2% of his carries. McLaughlin seems like a no-brainer to add a spark to the rushing game.
Unfortunately, the rookie is a complete liability in the passing game at this point in his career. Perine mentioned during an interview this week that McLaughlin “still needs to learn how to cut (block). Going against some of those bigger guys coming up the A Gap. He’s still learning about that.” Listed at 5-foot-9 and 187 pounds, McLaughlin's struggles as a pass protector may always exist.
Due to that, he has become a tell for opposing defenses. If McLaughlin is in the game, he's unlikely to be kept in as an extra blocker. Opposing defensive coordinators and their ability to break pass protection rules using simulated pressures can easily create free rushers knowing the running back is not likely to be kept as a protector. And if McLaughlin is kept in the backfield, he will struggle versus a free rusher.
Sean Payton obviously knows that Jaleel has become an obvious tell when on the field. If McLaughlin is the Broncos' back on a play, he gets the football 55.2% of the time. He's so explosive the Broncos must continue to find ways to get him the ball, but he can’t be much beyond gadgety at this point, given his pass-blocking woes.
Instead, the Broncos will have to continue to pound the rock with Williams and hope with each passing week that he becomes more explosive and closer to the back Broncos Country saw in 2021. Expecting that to happen this season may very well be beyond reasonable expectation. It’s a miracle Williams is playing at all this season after suffering such a significant injury less than 14 months ago.
However, if Denver is to continue this improbable winning run, it will need Williams to return to form. Relying on incredible field position and golden scoring opportunities from the defense forcing takeaways and Mims' return game inevitably regresses.
This rate of takeaways in three games hasn’t been seen in 26 years, and teams may follow the Vikings’ game plan last week and simply not kick to Mims. When that happens, the offense will simply have to be better than it has been over the winning streak.
The Broncos will very likely continue to be a run-heavy football team with ample carries and touches for the running backs. In order for Denver to make its playoff dreams a reality, the team will very likely need Williams to reemerge closer to the back he was prior to his injury.
A completely unfair expectation of Williams' given how recent and severe his knee injury was, but the reality of the situation in Denver as the team continues to climb out of its 1-5 start to the season.
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