How Broncos Can Redeem Jerry Jeudy After Botched Week 14 Targets
The Denver Broncos desperately need Jerry Jeudy to step up. After a frustrating game in Week 13 where the fourth-year wideout worked his way open on multiple plays only to have Russell Wilson opt not to throw him the ball, head coach Sean Payton stated that despite the lack of targets.
"We want to get his hands on the ball," Payton said. "Really, if you look at the tape closely and you watch all of it... Holy cow, there are about two or three of those plays [where Jeudy is wide open].”
Despite fielding a low-volume passing offense this season, the Broncos appeared to make a concerted effort to get Jeudy the ball in Week 14 in Los Angeles. Unfortunately for Jeudy and the Broncos, the number of targets did not equal a larger output.
With a team-leading six targets on Sunday’s 24-7 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, Jeudy hauled in just two receptions for 16 yards. The game was highlighted (or lowlighted) by a drop that would have led to a massive 40-plus-yard reception as well as a simple completion (for NFL standards) that should have resulted in a touchdown if not for his perplexing lack of awareness in not getting both feet down before going out of bounds. Jeudy did not have a fantastic time in Los Angeles despite the Broncos making a concerted effort to involve him in the offense.
Considering his frustrated little outbursts on and off the field, dropped passes, and the underwhelming statistical output of his NFL career to date, it's safe to say that Jeudy has not lived up to the billing of a first-round wide receiver. Further adding insult to injury, the Broncos selected Jeudy over many incredible pass catchers in the 2020 NFL draft, such as Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tee Higgins.
It would be completely unfair to call Jeudy a 'bust' at this point, given the underwhelming quarterback play and injuries he has dealt with in his career to date, but he certainly hasn't lived up to his draft pedigree. The renaissance of Courtland Sutton has only further added to Jeudy's frustrating season.
Sutton flashed tremendous potential in his first two years in Denver and appeared to be emerging as a superstar in the league in 2020. Sadly, he suffered a torn ACL in Week 2 of the 2020 season. He's been battling back from that injury for years.
Many wondered whether Sutton would ever return to his Pro Bowl form pre-injury. While he may not possess the same lower-body explosion he had prior to the injury, he has returned to being a highlight-reel receiver this season and the undisputed No. 1 passing option for the Broncos' offense. Sutton won’t be breaking any yardage records this season, given Denver’s offensive style of play, but he's unquestionably the team's WR1.
During the recent hot streak in which the Broncos have catapulted themselves back into playoff contention, the formula has worked offensively: possess and protect the football, play field position, run the ball just effectively enough, hit the checkdown, and look for home-run deep balls to Sutton.
When a defense takes the ball away as well as Denver’s has since Week 6, playing to avoid negative plays on offense with calculated aggression can win one a lot of games. However, to take the next step and go from a 'nice story' to a 'dangerous playoff team,' Denver will very likely need to find someone other than Sutton to emerge as a dynamic and efficient option in the passing game.
With Marvin Mims Jr.'s struggles in running anything besides a go route and Brandon Johnson working his way back from injury and lacking pedigree as a former undrafted free agent, the time for Jeudy to step up is Saturday as Denver heads east to take on the high-powered Detroit Lions.
Let's examine what lies ahead and why the Broncos would be wise to go back to the Jeudy well down the stretch, despite his squandered opportunities thus far.
A Vulnerable Opponent
The Lions started off the 2023 season red hot. However, after opening 10-2, Detroit has dropped two of its last three against a pair of teams the Broncos have defeated this season — the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Even before Detroit's recent tough spell, there were obvious cracks starting to show, specifically on the defensive side of the ball.
Since Week 7 this season, the Lions have the 28th-ranked defense in EPA/Play and the 29th-ranked defensive success rate at 45.35%. While the metrics show the Lions have been good against the run, ranking seventh in EPA/Rush, they have the second-worst EPA/Pass in the league over the time period. Detroit has done a good job taking away the run, but its passing defense has been abhorrent.
The Lions have actually done a solid job getting pressure, ranking fifth in the NFL in pressure rate at 25.7%. It is the Lions' coverage players that have let them down, especially boundary cornerback No. 2 Jerry Jacobs.
Jeudy's Opportunity Knocks
Ranking 49th out of 59 in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade among corners with at least 350 coverage snaps this season, four of Jacobs’ six worst-graded games have come in the last four weeks. While Detroit's other cornerback Cameron Sutton hasn't been incredible this season, he's been better than Jacobs.
Jeudy should have a favorable matchup on Saturday, and with Detroit’s high-powered offense, Denver may have to be a bit more aggressive through the air and attempt to score more points to help the defense.
Week 16
Perhaps even more interesting will be Denver’s matchup with the New England Patriots the following week. Despite supporting one of the singularly most inept offenses in the NFL this season, the Patriots defense has been incredible football.
Since Week 10, New England has the second-best defense in the NFL in EPA/Play at -0.18, the fifth-best defense in Success Rate at 39.15%, the fourth-best explosive play rate at 6.81%, the ninth-best EPA/Pass, and the best EPA/Rush in the NFL at -0.32. If the Broncos want to run the ball versus New England, be prepared for a lot of third-and-longs and punts.
Even more intriguing is what the Patriots do in coverage. Bill Belichick's defenses of late have been known for a few primary things: pocket-crunching defensive linemen who can rush physically while playing the run, hybrid defensive backs, and the elimination of the opponent’s WR1.
Playing bracket coverage and scheming out a team’s No. 1 passing option while eliminating the run is something you can count on when playing against the Patriots, which, unfortunately, sounds like an absolute recipe for disaster the way the Broncos’ offense is currently operating. Fortunately, the Patriots’ offense is completely inept, but without the emergence of other outlets in the passing game, the Broncos could easily flub around next week and lose a close game.
For the sake of the matchup, Denver desperately needs another pass catcher to step up, and the most obvious answer there is Jeudy.
Reality Check
The unfortunate reality is that Jeudy simply might not be a great fit for how Russell Wilson wins as a quarterback and vice versa. At Alabama, Jeudy was at his best running fast, clean routes to get immediate separation in the quick passing game, working the middle and intermediate areas of the field in 11 personnel sets, and primarily doing his damage in the metronomic on-schedule passing game with Tua Tagaviola and Mac Jones at quarterback.
That model is quite far from who Wilson is as a quarterback and how his offenses have operated in the NFL. Instead, Wilson's passing offenses have been more predicated on broken plays, extending beyond the first read, buying time, playing off schedule, and looking for home runs and check-down/scramble options.
Wilson’s ball placement in the quick game is also a tad volatile, putting more onus on his receivers to contort their body and make plays on the football with much more difficulty than one would expect, given the distance of the throw. Both Wilson and Jeudy are undoubtedly talented and win in their own ways, but do their styles and ways they win line up?
Outside of a few games to close out 2022, the answer appears to be no, as neither has seemed able to get on the same page in the passing game. Can the two figure it out and amplify the Broncos offense?
If it's ever going to happen, the time is undoubtedly right now. After three-quarters of a season's worth of lowlights, including dancing behind Thursday Night Football analyst Steve Smith prior to kickoff, Jeudy’s name being involved in trade rumors (again), and the drops, the Broncos need the fourth-year wideout to emerge as a viable No. 2 option.
Bottom Line
Jeudy will likely never have gaudy statistical output, given Payton's preference in rushing the football, but he's still a talented option that the Broncos need more from down the stretch.
After Jeudy’s disappointing Week 14 game vs. the Chargers, it would be easy to write him out of the game plan. He showed frustration on the field in Houston, but after blowing multiple golden opportunities with ample chances the following week, he shouldn't be upset with anyone but himself.
However, for the good of the offense and the team itself, the Broncos, Payton, and Wilson should go back to the well and target Jeudy heavily again this week. After letting himself and the team down last week, the Broncos could truly inspire Jeudy by highlighting him again in Detroit and giving him ample chances to be the difference-maker he was drafted to be.
There is risk in doing so, but Denver needs someone else to step up on offense to evolve, and based on talent alone, the player most likely to do so is Jeudy.
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