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Making Sense of Why Market for Ex-Broncos S Justin Simmons is Cold
Former Denver Broncos All-Pro and Pro Bowler Justin Simmons has languished on the free-agent market since his release. Why?
The Denver Broncos shocked many fans by releasing Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons last month. It was a fiscal move driven by the necessity of becoming salary-cap-compliant in the wake of the team's overages and the punitive consequences of releasing quarterback Russell Wilson, which triggered an $85 million dead-money hit to Denver's salary cap.
The Broncos opted to split that $85M over the next two years, taking north of $50M in 2024. That meant certain guys had to go.
Releasing Simmons freed up $14.5M on the salary cap. The Broncos knocked loose another $13.5M by trading wideout Jerry Jeudy to the Cleveland Browns.
Those two moves, combined with the team-friendly contract restructures of several recently-signed veterans like offensive linemen Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers, as well as defensive end Zach Allen, allowed for the Broncos to be cap-compliant in time for the NFL's new league year to open last month. Since then, Denver has signed a small handful of value free agents to fill roster holes, while having little choice but to say goodbye to most of its 2024 free agents, including linebacker Josey Jewell and center Lloyd Cushenberry III.
Meanwhile, Simmons has languished on the open market. League insiders have tried to get a bead on why the Simmons market is so cold, theorizing that he's simply asking for too much money, or pointing to the value of safeties on the free-agent market plummeting in recent years.
ESPN's Adam Schefter was on Philadelphia's 97.5 The Fanatic earlier this week, where he shared his outlook for Simmons based on the latest info he's gleaned and answered a question on whether the former Broncos safety may have to accept a one-year deal to find a new NFL home, including the Philadelphia Eagles, who've reportedly expressed interest in the veteran.
“I don’t think they would based on the logic with [Hasson] Reddick — but if Justin Simmons came in at a number, a price that was friendly, would they do that? Maybe, yeah," Schefter told The Fanatic. "I'm making this up, but what if it’s a one-year deal worth some friendly number, would they do that?”
Depending on the cost, if Simmons has little choice but to accept a one-year deal, it would behoove the Broncos to at least consider the possibility of bringing him back. But, unfortunately, there could be too much water under that bridge, and the reality is, the Broncos have already made moves to account for Simmons' departure.
The first free-agent move Denver made after getting under the cap was signing former Miami Dolphins starter Brandon Jones to a three-year, $20M deal. He's written in as a 2024 starter, in Sharpie.
Denver also re-signed safety P.J. Locke, who emerged last season in relief of the oft-suspended Kareem Jackson. Locke returned on a team-friendly deal and one that both recognizes the impact he made last season, as well as his relative lack of a productive NFL resume. NFL teams always are wary of over-spending on players coming off either their best season, or their only season of production.
Where would Simmons fit in? The answer is, right back to where he was for the preceding eight seasons. But, again, even on a one-year deal, the likelihood of the four-time All-Pro and two-time Pro Bowler coming back is slim.
It's really a bummer to see such a cold market for Simmons' services. Broncos fans are well aware of his transcendent on-field talent, but also his leadership, and huge passion for philanthropy and charity work.
Simmons deserves better, but he's worth what the market says he's worth. The cold Simmons market doesn't vindicate the Broncos, or prove they made the right decision in moving on. But it does imply, though it hurts to say it, that he was overpaid in Denver.
Back in 2021, Broncos GM George Paton signed Simmons to a four-year, $61M extension, putting him on a path to earn roughly $15.2M per year. He was entering the final year of that contract extension when the Broncos moved on.
While there are safeties earning way more than what Simmons was, like Derwin James ($19M/year) and Minkah Fitzpatrick ($18M/year), the NFL market is trending toward a devaluation of the position. The odds are that Simmons won't find any suitors willing to pay him on a level commensurate with his last contract in Denver.
But entering his age-31 season, it's safe to say that Simmons is already on the back-nine of his NFL career, and that's about when veterans, even accomplished ones like him, have to start making concessions financially if they want to keep playing in the league. Add to that a growing devlauation of the safety position, and Simmons' still unsigned status starts to make more sense.
Still, we wish him the best and hope he's able to find the best possible contract and playing situation available to him. Simmons was one of the greatest Broncos of his era. It's just unfortunate that his era coincided with the longest stretch of organizational incompetence of the Super Bowl era.
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