Mel Kiper Jr.'s Prediction at Pick 12 Might Disappoint Broncos Country
Perhaps NFL media's top mocksters know something that Denver Broncos fans don't. Instead of taking a quarterback at pick No. 12 overall, the credible mocksters keep predicting defenders to Denver.
ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. — arguably the media pioneer of mock drafts — is the latest to predict a non-QB to the Broncos at No. 12 overall. Kiper mocked UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu to Denver.
Kiper:
I love Latu's ability to bend the edge and get after quarterbacks. He's a toolsy pass-rusher who has a variety of moves and always has a plan of attack. He ranked second in the FBS in total pressures (57) and pressure rate (20.4%) this past season, and he ranked first in the same categories in 2022 (55 pressures, 19.1% pressure rate). And did I mention he had 23.5 sacks in that time frame? Those are two seasons of phenomenal production. The questions with Latu will come at the NFL combine in a few weeks, as he medically retired from football because of a neck injury when he was at Washington in 2021. He was cleared to play for the Bruins, but what will his medical checkups show?
For Denver, adding Latu would be a boost to a pass rush that was just OK last season. The Broncos tied for 21st with 42 sacks, but overall they ranked 30th in yards per play allowed (5.8) and 32nd in yards per carry allowed (5.0). Latu has the potential to become a 10-sacks-per-season defender.
Kiper has three quarterbacks going first to open the 2024 NFL draft, but perhaps in a slightly different order than we've heretofore seen. Kiper has USC's Caleb Williams going No. 1 overall, followed by LSU's Jayden Daniels at 2, then North Carolina's Drake Maye at No. 3.
In Kiper's latest mock, the next quarterback taken is Michigan's J.J. McCarthy to Seattle at No. 16 overall. For now, Kiper doesn't appear to foresee Washington's Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon's Bo Nix going in the first round.
On one hand, edge rusher is one of the Broncos' top roster needs. On the other, it pales in comparison to the massive hole at quarterback the Broncos are staring at if Russell Wilson is, in fact, released.
You don't draft a quarterback in the top-15 just to draft a quarterback, but neither Penix nor Nix have been strangers to Round 1 since mock draft season began in earnest. Both quarterbacks have their warts — Penix's injury history and Nix's reputation as a system QB — but both would represent a massive upgrade over Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci at quarterback for a Wilson-less Broncos, though I'm not sure McCarthy would. At least, not immediately.
Perhaps the draft insiders are hearing that Wilson and the Broncos will find a way to stitch their relationship back together and forge ahead. After all, the five-year, $245 million extension he signed in August of 2022 isn't set to begin until this year.
Or it could be that the draft insiders are hearing that Sean Payton will look to the free-agent market for a competent and experienced veteran to keep the Broncos competitive in 2024. If the Broncos don't see a path to one of the top-3 QBs in this class, and don't have a first-round grade on McCarthy, Penix, or Nix, then going with a stop-gap veteran might make the most sense to Payton and company.
Broncos Country would hate it, though. If the Wilson experiment is truly over, fans don't want to see the Broncos waste any more time with reclamation projects and failsafe-type quarterbacks.
However, there are many stops left on the pre-draft trail, including the Shrine Bowl, Senior Bowl, NFL Scouting Combine, and pro days. A lot could change between now and then, especially as it relates to the draft stock of the five quarterbacks mentioned above.
Latu's ceiling would seem to be enormous. But all the King's Von Millers and all the King's Patrick Surtain IIs haven't been enough to overcome the lack of a bonafide franchise quarterback and prevent the Broncos from posting seven consecutive losing seasons.
Let's hope the Broncos' brain trust doesn't fail to recognize that fact — if a Wilson divorce is inevitable. Payton has a great track record for making lemonade with stopgap QBs, but in every instance, the success he had with them was short-term. Five games here. Two games there. Maybe as many as seven games.
The Broncos need a long-term option at quarterback post-Wilson, and after trying every which way expect drafting one, it's time the pendulum swings back to doing it the old-fashioned way and procuring a future franchise signal-caller in the NFL draft.
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