Mailbag: Shelby Harris or Jurrell Casey | Which DL Takes Precedence for Broncos?
There are four games left in the season and the Denver Broncos sit at 4-8. There are many fans who are looking ahead to the offseason and the NFL draft as the playoffs are all but lost for the Broncos.
As Mile High Huddle's Senior Draft Analyst, I'm always looking at the draft as I study the next year's class of NFL prospects before the current season's draft is even in the books. As an analyst who scouts the draft 365 days per year, I opened up my Twitter take some questions regarding the Broncos, the draft, and even a little bit of free agency.
This is a tough question to answer without getting labeled as a 'Lock hater' despite my hope that he turns out to be the guy. It really comes down to what happens over these last four games and how Lock looks.
If the Broncos win two or more of their final four, then they probably don't land in a spot to draft one of the top-four quarterbacks, let alone top three, all of whom could end up as top-five picks. Two more wins also would likely mean Lock does just enough to show potential for more.
However, another quarterback should be added in the form of a veteran. Multiple quarterbacks could be available, some more likely than others, that could make sense for the Broncos if they still want to move forward with Lock.
Veterans like Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford (more on Stafford later) Sam Darnold, and Carson Wentz all make some sense for Denver. In the first three vets mentioned above, the Broncos would get an older quarterback who could help Lock and give the team more time to develop him. The last two are younger and would be direct competition for Lock to be the starter.
If Denver goes 1-3 or 0-4 over the final four, it has a chance to land one of the top-four QBs and maybe even top-three. In that case, it likely means Lock continued his inconsistent play by looking solid one moment then making the same terrible mistakes he made in college the next.
The bad would far outweigh the good. In that case, go get the quarterback in the draft. The simple fact is, the lower you get a quarterback in the draft, the longer the odds are that he becomes successful. Sure, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson are exceptions, but they're outliers.
Denver needs Lock to be the guy because it's better for the team and would allow it to go elsewhere in the draft, which brings me to the next question.
When looking at how the team is built and how the future looks there, are multiple ways the Broncos can go. Of course, there is a lot that depends on what happens in free agency and in the trade market. Von Miller is a big domino to fall, and there will be more on him later, while Justin Simmons, Jurrell Casey, A.J. Bouye, and multiple others, also hang in the balance.
So Denver could go edge, which is a big need for the team. Bradley Chubb has not lived up to expectations so far, Miller is older, is coming off an injury, and is expensive (again more on him later) while Malik Reed hasn't shown the consistency to be more than the No. 3 rusher. It’s a big need that could end up even bigger.
Offensive tackle was helped by extending Garett Bolles, and Ja'Wuan James will be back for 2021, but will he be around longer than that? The question about the future at right tackle is a big one as well as the depth. Unless Oregon's Penei Sewell is there, I doubt the Broncos go tackle in Round 1 but a developmental guy in Round 2 could be in the plans.
Cornerback is an option with Bouye probably on his way out and major depth concerns there. Safety is an option with Simmons poised to be a free agent and Kareem Jackson's age.
Defensive line, with Shelby Harris and DeMarcus Walker a free agent and Jurrell Casey possibly on the way out, is also on the table. Off-Ball linebacker, to complement the restricted free agent Alexander Johnson could be a focus and the Broncos like Justin Strnad. But does Denver want to put all their eggs in that basket?
It’s still really early, but my best-educated guess would be edge and corner for Denver's first two picks but it’s really going to depend on how the board falls. If Sewell or Penn State LB Micah Parsons are there, I could see the Broncos going that way as well.
GM John Elway has tried, for the most part, to fill big needs before the draft so the Broncos don't have to reach for need.
What to do between Shelby Harris and Jurrell Casey is a big question for the Broncos entering 2021, which would settle many other open issues entering the draft. I break down which of those two D-lineman are likely to take precendece for Denver in the video above, so make sure you check that out.
So it’s really two questions, but let me answer the first part about Miller first.
Is it time to move on from Miller? Unfortunately, the answer is yes unless the Broncos can get him to agree to lower his hit against the salary cap.
Not picking up Miller's option could free up $18 million of salary cap room for the Broncos. While the salary cap isn't everything, it can help in the current times.
Denver would take on $4.125M in dead money, which isn't too bad. Miller is going to be 32 years old in March and coming off another major injury. It doesn't seem like we will see him this year, either. Signs are hinting towards a parting of ways.
The only con is that Miller has been the face of the defense since 2011 and the Super Bowl 50 MVP. He is beloved by most fans and is likely a future Hall of Fame player. You never want to part ways with that in a perfect world.
As for the draft impact, it would make the need to get an edge rusher even greater. Fortunately, this is an excellent year for edge rushers. Gregory Rousseau is my top guy but Joseph Ossai, Jayson Oweh, Kwity Paye, Patrick Jones, Azeez Ojulari, and many, many more are premium-round caliber players.
I wouldn't be surprised if Denver took two edge rushers in the draft with one early and one on Day 3, especially if the team parts with Miller.
As for Trevor Lawrence pulling an Eli Manning with the New York Jets, I'm not sure what I would offer in a potential trade-up would be enough but the max I would go is two first-round picks (2021 and 2022) and two third-round picks.
It’s more than the Philip Rivers (No. 4 overall pick) and a third-rounder compensation in 2004 and the first and fifth in 2005 for Eli Manning but Denver probably isn't picking in the top-five so it's a bigger drop. Additionally, Lawrence is a better prospect than Manning was and the times have grown to be even more of a quarterback-dependent league.
Speaking of veteran quarterbacks…
I would love to see the Broncos go after Stafford, but I'm not sure the Lions will eat the dead money to part ways with him. I'm also not sure the compensation I'd be willing to give the Lions for Stafford would enough to help take the sting off eaing that dead money.
The max I'd be willing to give up for Stafford is a third-round pick. With the Lions having to eat $19M of dead cap space, I just don't think that'd be enough. Of the veteran options I mentioned above, Stafford is my favorite but he may be more on the unrealistic end of the spectrum.
Besides Lawrence and Ohio State's Justin Fields, there are five quarterbacks I have heard mentioned as possible first-round picks. Two are them are viewed as top-15 picks and the other three as late first-round possibilities that a team in the early second could move up for to get the fifth-year option benefits.
As for the comparison aspect of the question, just a quick disclaimer. I hate comparisons because they are often taken out of context. Comparing players is interpreted to mean one guy will end up like the other. It doesn't even mean they're exactly the same type of player. All it means is there are similarities in their style from when I watch them but they still have that individuality.
BYU's Zach Wilson is actually my No. 2 quarterback ahead of Fields. Wilson makes some wow throws, has good movement and mobility, enough arm strength to make all the throws, and is extremely smart. I see similarities to multiple different NFL quarterbacks but the one who jumps out most is Aaron Rodgers as a prospect coming out of California.
North Dakota State's Trey Lance is my No. 4 QB and reminds me of a cross between Dak Prescott and Josh Allen. The raw tools and traits are there like with Allen, as well as the ability to use his legs but Lance's future in the NFL will likely follow a similar pathway as Allen's.
One big difference is, the accuracy on Lance's deep ball doesn't match with Allen, but it does match with Prescott. Lance does alright on underneath throws but ball placement can become erratic the farther downfield he goes, just like Prescott out of Mississippi State.
Those are the two I see as for sure first-round picks. The following three, as said before, are late first-round options just for the fifth-year option.
Florida's Kyle Trask is a weaker armed Ben Roethlisberger or in other words, Mason Rudolph. He has the size and bulk to stand tough in the pocket and bounce off would-be sacks like Big Ben, but he does't have the arm to push it Roethlisberger.
There are many throws of Trasks that see the nose dive before it gets to his target. A lot of passes that go 'quack' which isn't there with Big Ben.
Mac Jones of Alabama is Case Keenum. Jones does his best when throwing with timing and anticipation but struggles to hit with timing and in stride with his receivers on deeper passes. You'll often see the receivers slowing and adjusting 15-plus yards downfield. Underneath, though, Jones is sharp and accurate with good timing and anticipation of breaks.
Finally, there is Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder who many don't know about, and should be getting more attention than he is. Ridder is tall and kind of lanky and he can bring a lot of scheme versatility to an NFL offense. Run-pass options can be utilized with his good legs. There are a lot of similarities between Ridder and Colin Kaepernick with the play style.
A late addition to this is Carson Strong of Nevada. I was actually going through the finishing touches when my colleague Nick Kendell mentioned him to me, so I checked him out.
Strong is a redshirt sophomore who many draftniks believe will declare and is said to be pushing for the first-round status. Since I just got on the Strong trail, it's too early for me to give a comparison but he had some beautiful deep shots against UNLV that had good timing and placed nearly perfectly.
Before you click onto the next artice, be sure to check out the Shelby vs. Jurrell video above.
Follow Erick on Twitter @ErickTrickel and @MileHighHuddle.
