Examining Whether Broncos RB Melvin Gordon Deserves his Reputation for Fumbling
The Denver Broncos took a risk when they signed Melvin Gordon to a big contract two years ago. He had issues with fumbles and staying healthy, both of which have followed him to the Broncos.
With Gordon set to be a free agent, we know he'd prefer to re-sign with the Broncos. But is he worth extending?
There will be a lot that depends on what the contract Gordon is seeking looks like. If he's willing to re-sign for a deal no more than $4 million per year, it would make sense for Denver. However, anything more than that, or on a term longer than two years, it should be a hard pass for the Broncos due to the longevity of running backs pushing 30.
Let's look at the numbers to determine whether Gordon is worth north of $4M. Of his two concerns, the fumbles are the ones to look at.
Injuries suck, but they're part of the game, and the point of bringing back Gordon would be to retain a good duo with Javonte Williams getting more touches than Gordon as the lead back, which could help cut back on the injuries.
During his two years with the Broncos, Gordon has put the ball on the ground a total of six times, with only two of them coming during the 2021 season. Williams has also put the ball on the ground twice this year, with a third one not actually being ruled a fumble in Week 8.
Looking at their fumble rates, Gordon comes in at a fumble every 90 touches, with Williams one every 94. If you count that play against Washington, the number for Williams drops to one every 63. How does that stack up to the rest of the NFL with running backs with at least 150 rushes?
Beyond Gordon and Williams, 15 other running backs have more than 150 rushing attempts. Three of them have zero fumbles, and another three have just one this season. Those six running backs will have a more favorable fumble rate than Gordon, but the other nine are worth looking at.
Of those remaining nine, five have a worse fumble rate than both Gordon and Williams, and one is between them. Those five are Washington's Antiono Gibson (1 out of 42), Los Angeles' Austin Ekeler (1 out of 55), Indianapolis' Jonathan Taylor (1 out of 69), Minnesota's Dalvin Cook (1 out of 75), and New England's Damien Harris (1 out of 89). Cleveland's Nick Chubb has a fumble rate of one every 91 touches.
So while the fumbles with Gordon are an issue, as all turnovers are problematic, he isn't fumbling at a way-above-the-mean rate. He's about league-average. With what he provides to balance out Williams, Gordon could be worth keeping.
However, teams can find running backs late in the draft or even after the draft. When Gordon missed the Kansas City Chiefs game, Mike Boone stepped in and did well alongside Williams. The position relies on the blocking in front of them unless it's a back like Williams who breaks contact like it's nothing. That trait isn't easy to find.
So is Gordon worth keeping? Well, that entirely depends on what he is asking for and if there is a scheme change on offense. With the fumble rate and what he does to balance out Williams, Gordon could be valuable, but it might be cheaper to find a replacement later in the draft or afterward.
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