One Stat that Hints at an Offensive Explosion Coming to Broncos
There is optimism surrounding the Denver Broncos' offense and the possibility of success heading into 2022. Obviously, the addition of a superstar quarterback like Russell Wilson can do that.
Recently, though, I've seen some analysts try to throw cold water onto that excitement, saying the Broncos have too many unknowns. For example, ESPN's Mike Clay recently put out his positional grades and ranked the Broncos' wide receivers 14th as a unit and tight ends 27th.
There are some reasons to believe the skill position players are going to play much higher than those rankings suggest. There's one stat in particular that I think shows by next year, at least, the wide receivers should be ranked easily within the top-10.
The stat I'm speaking of is that of Yards of Separation Per Target. The Broncos finished third in the league only behind the Kansas City Chiefs (thankfully their best separator is gone) and the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
One could argue the Broncos should be even better in this category for 2022, considering Courtland Sutton was still returning from injury and Jerry Jeudy spent a great deal of the year injured and wasn’t quite 100% when he did return late in the season.
Before we dig into this stat and why it's so important for this season, I want to point out two quick caveats. The first ties into the quarterback position last year for the Broncos, especially when it came to Teddy Bridgewater.
Bridgewater is known quantity as a quarterback who does not like to take risks — to the extent that he only throws to a receiver when he's absolutely sure they're open. The tight window throws are not his friend.
Secondly, the Broncos did lose their best separator last year in tight end Noah Fant. I expect Albert Okwuegbunam to do just fine in this statistical category, but it needs to be mentioned that Fant will be a bit of a loss.
In today’s NFL, there are certain trends that show up with many of the top offenses. They want to spread teams out and open up opportunities for receivers to win one-on-one battles or find quick holes in zone schemes.
If an opponent commits too many players to helping stop receiving options, then teams like to have a big, bruising running back to take advantage of light boxes. The Broncos are set up to fit this mold perfectly.
The Broncos have four receivers in Sutton, Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and KJ Hamler that have all shown ability to get open quickly and in a variety of ways. The tight ends might not be the best well-rounded unit around, but one thing they do have is a couple of players in Okwuegbunam and rookie Greg Dulcich who are known for athleticism.
If a team commits too much to stopping all of those weapons, then good luck with the two-headed monster that is Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon in the run game.
Over the past six years, teams have dared the Broncos to air it out, knowing the inaccuracy and lack of consistency at the quarterback position would quickly derail the offense. The Broncos fielded two quarterbacks last year that could not have been more opposite in Bridgewater, who wanted to be conservative, and Drew Lock, who would throw it up and pray something good would happen.
The Broncos finally have the perfect quarterback to maximize the talent that has been built up over the last several years. Wilson is one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.
This is highlighted even more by the fact that Wilson enjoys throwing the deep ball more than most, which lowers his odds of throwing a completion. He's not just fluffing up his statistics by completing a lot of easier throws around the field. Wilson has now been gifted with one of the best receiving corps for getting open.
On top of that, another statistic that should see a major jump this year for the Broncos is Yards After Catch. The idea of hitting Jeudy in stride on a quick pass is something that we have not gotten to see at the rate we deserve since he entered the NFL.
The flashes of those opportunities have been fun to watch, and knowing they should be coming at a much higher rate this season should mean great success for this Broncos' offense.
The Broncos being successful offensively is all projection at this point, but if I had to bank on any one unit playing well above expectations at this point, it would be the receiving corps. They've all shown that they can make magic happen on the field when thrown an accurate ball.
Sutton and Jeudy are healthy once again, paired with the always consistent Patrick, and the explosive playmaking ability of Hamler, should make for some fun highlight reels after each game. Wilson has played with some great receivers in his time with the Seattle Seahawks, but he's never had this deep of a unit that could see any of them be the star on any given week.
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