Over The Cap Reveals LB Alexander Johnson to be Broncos' Biggest Bargain Player of 2020
There are multiple Denver Broncos who are playing on cheap rookie contracts this season and others on veteran deals that pay more money.
How much value are the Broncos getting out of these players, though? And what might it mean for certain players in the future, whether it's a new contract or a potential cut after the season?
Over the Cap is utilizing a valuation metric that helps fans understand how much value a team is getting out of a player. It's not a definitive measure about how much a player should be paid, but it can give you an idea about the return on investment teams are getting out of players.
You can learn more about OTC's valuation metric here, but do keep a couple of things in mind. First, while it utilizes Pro Football Focus' grading system as part of it, PFF grades are just one measure of player performance, not the end-all/be-all.
Second, and more importantly, the OTC valuation metric does not equal what a player will get from a new contract. For example, teams have placed a premium on quarterbacks, thus are willing to pay more for QBs if you can build a team around them.
Third, the values I will examine are based on just one week of play in 2020. There are going to be some numbers that may make you surprised, but those values could go up or down depending on how the players play throughout the season.
Let's look at a few examples among Broncos players to see what we can glean from OTC's valuation metric.
Alexander Johnson | LB: He's getting a $615,000 base salary but, based off Week 1, is valued at $18.1M for his position and $18.6M overall. It may be just one game, but there isn't much doubt the Broncos are getting great value from Johnson's deal.
Whether he will actually gets a contract for $18M per year remains to be seen. Keep in mind that the off-ball linebacker market was soft in 2020, after several players in 2019 re-set the market. Also, keep in mind Johnson is a restricted free agent in 2021, so he'll likely get a second-round tender before the Broncos start talking a new contract for him.
Jeremiah Attaochu | OLB: He's valued at $18.4M after Week 1. At a salary of $1.5M, Attaochu is delivering great value to the Broncos.
That doesn't mean Attaochu is in line for $18M per year in a new contract. First, it's one game (I'll be reminding you this several times). Second, teams could view him as a player who excels only in certain schemes, meaning he'll command less on the open market.
Drew Lock | QB: PFF hasn't been favorable to Lock, but the Broncos are still getting good value after Week 1. Lock has a $1.75M APY salary and is valued at $16.4M.
Lock is one of many examples of why rookie QB contracts are desirable and, if you hit on a drafted QB, you are in great position to build around the QB.
But only time will tell how much Lock raises his value.
Garett Bolles and Elijah Wilkinson | OTs: I'll combine the two because they make for an interesting comparison. Bolles has a $2.75M APY salary on his rookie deal and is valued at $13.9M, while Wilkinson is playing on the $3.25M second-round RFA tender and is valued at $11.4M.
Bolles' valuation may not surprise you, because it puts him in the second tier among left tackle salaries. Wilkinson, though, is certain to make you say "wait a minute." But this is where I will remind you: It's just one game.
One thing is clear, though: If both Bolles and Wilkinson play at a level throughout the season that shows they should be paid like starters, only one will stick around. It's more likely the Broncos would keep Bolles, because of his first-round draft pedigree and because he's shown he can be effective if he doesn't commit too many penalties.
With Wilkinson, one good season at right tackle won't likely be enough for the Broncos to commit to him, particularly with Ja'Wuan James likely back next season and due a large, fully guaranteed salary. Better to let another team pay Wilkinson instead.
Noah Fant | TE: He's getting an APY salary of $3.14M and is valued at $8.95M. Keep in mind that the tight end spot isn't as highly valued as others, so that's one reason why Fant's value isn't that high.
Still, the Broncos are getting a good return on their investment after Week One and, if Fant continues to play well, I would expect his OTC valuation to rise.
Jurrell Casey | DL: Among players on expensive veteran contracts (as opposed to a cheap contract like Attaochu's), Casey is delivering the most bang for the buck.
Though Casey is valued at $10M on an APY salary of $15.1M, he's still delivering enough to justify his pay. As long as his play doesn't dip dramatically, Casey figures to be with the Broncos next season.
A.J. Bouye | CB: The flipside is Bouye, who gets an APY salary of $13.5M and is valued at just $1.58M. Of course, context matters, because Bouye left the Titans game halfway through with a shoulder injury.
However, if injuries continue to keep Bouye off the field, chances are the Broncos will cut him after the season. We'll see what happens, though, once Bouye is cleared to play again.
Justin Simmons | S: Finally, because Broncos fans are keeping an eye on Simmons after he couldn't come to terms with the Broncos on an extension, we'll look at the fifth-year safety.
On the franchise tag of $11.4M, Simmons delivered a valuation of $5M. On one hand, that's a number that suggests he may worth keeping. On the other hand, it suggests he's not worth keeping on a contract that re-sets the market.
Again, it's just one game, and we'll only know the real story on a contract Simmons deserves after a full season is played.
In Summary
You can look at OTC's player valuation and select the Broncos to narrow it down to their players, to see how the rest of the roster stacks up.
From time to time, I'll check the chart to see where the Broncos continue to get the most value out of players. Some of that information will be utilized when I examine the Broncos' pending free agents and their likely status for 2021.
Again, remember that OTC's valuation metric is only a guide and won't necessarily reflect what a player gets in a new contract. Market forces and how teams value a position determine that, and such factors will more likely influence the Broncos' decisions.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
