Two Broncos' Picks Singled Out in Football Outsiders' Look Back at 2016 NFL Draft
Every year in the NFL draft, fans get excited about the players their team selects, hoping they will make an immediate impact in the season to come. However, to know how well a team really drafted, or how a draft class looks overall, is to wait a few years and see what happens over the long term.
Football Outsiders looked back at the 2016 NFL draft to determine the best player, biggest bust, and best value at each position. When it comes to the Denver Broncos, you can probably guess who was in the biggest bust category — that being the quarterback.
However, when it comes to the selection of Paxton Lynch, Football Outsiders analyst Bryan Knowles notes it was actually a close race. We'll get to the guy who made it a close race.
Sticking with Lynch, the Broncos traded up a few spots in the first round, hoping he would be the eventual franchise quarterback. He never beat out Trevor Siemian for the starting job, and in the handful of games he played, he looked lost.
However, Lynch getting to play in an NFL regular-season game was a bigger accomplishment than another quarterback could make — that being Christian Hackenburg, a second-round pick by the New York Jets. Hackenburg never got to play in an NFL regular-season game — but he was fourth on the depth chart going into the 2016 season.
That's right — the Jets kept four QBs that year. The others were Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, and Bryce Petty, who started games for the Jets in 2016. I'll leave it up to you to decide whether Lynch or Hackenburg is the bigger bust, but one thing is certain: Lynch was the biggest draft bust during John Elway's time in charge of personnel decisions.
But while Lynch failed to impress, the Broncos didn't have a bad draft class overall in 2016 — and Knowles recognized one of their players as the best value at his position.
You probably know that one: safety Justin Simmons.
A third-round pick in 2016, Simmons started just three games as a rookie but won a starting job in 2017 and broke out. He's had 21 interceptions and 49 passes defensed in six seasons. He was voted to the Pro Bowl in 2020 and named a second-team All-Pro in 2019 and 2021.
Knowles gave the nod to Simmons over Kevin Byard as the best value among defensive backs, though Knowles called it a close call, given that Byard has been a quality player and a former first-team All-Pro selection.
As for the rest of the Broncos' draft haul in 2016, aside from Lynch, they got contributions from every player to some degree. Your opinions will vary on Adam Gotsis, Devontae Booker, Connor McGovern, Andy Janovich, Will Parks, and Riley Dixon, but the Broncos got at least something in return from each player.
If you want a bad draft, you can look at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had a first-round bust of their own in Vernon Hargreaves, traded up for kicker Roberto Aguayo in the second round, and their best player would be fifth-round pick Caleb Benenoch, who started 16 games at right guard in 2018 but was a depth player otherwise.
It's easy to pick on Lynch, but as they say, it could have been worse — such as trading up for a kicker in the second round.
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