PFF Shares Concerning Take on Broncos' LB Von Miller Possibly Being in Decline
Von Miller is coming off his ninth season and the first in which he appeared in 10 or more games but failed to reach double-digit sack totals. While sacks aren't the only metric of an edge defender's impact, the box score wasn't the only place one could measure a drop-off in Miller's performance.
At age 31, does that mean that the Denver Broncos' all-time leader in sacks is finally on the decline? Pro Football Focus is openly pondering that very question.
Despite its questions, Miller checked in at No. 25 on the site's PFF50 list (top-50 players of 2020). Here's what the leading advanced analytics site had to say about Miller's ranking and future outlook.
Like [Tom] Brady, Von Miller’s play declined so dramatically last season that we don’t quite know what to expect from him in 2020 and beyond. Miller began his career with eight-straight seasons with PFF grades over 90.0 before slipping to just 79.0 last year — and that number was propped up with a run-defense grade that remained north of 90.0. As a pass-rusher, he just wasn’t the same player, and the concern is that we’re seeing the beginning of a decline. Obviously, at his best Miller is one of the best players the game has ever seen. But now, for the first time, there’s a question as to whether we’ll see him in top form again.
We can't say with any modicum of certainty that, indeed, Miller has hit his decline as outliers can be a thing, even for future Hall-of-Famers. After all, Miller played three-quarters of the 2019 season without a viable edge-rushing partner after Bradley Chubb suffered a torn ACL in Week 4.
The lack of a true edge threat opposite of him allowed opponents to double and triple-team Miller, which wasn't necessarily something new. But it happened way more often last season and he simply didn't have an answer for it or a means to fight through it and neither did his coaches.
Also consider that Miller put on an additional 10 pounds, bulking up to play in Vic Fangio's new scheme. Speaking of scheme, Miller was playing in a brand new system and one that frankly took some time for the Broncos to assimilate as a team and get off the ground while Fangio figured out how to call plays from the sideline instead of the booth.
Age could absolutely be a factor. And it's possible Miller's decline has begun. In fact, it's likely it's begun.
But a decline for Miller is relative as even a slight regression or loss of ability still renders him one of the best edge rushers in the NFL in 2020. Eight sacks might be below his career mean but even that number isn't one that should be taken for granted.
We'll know pretty quickly next fall whether Miller's 2019 form is the new normal. I happen to believe that even as he ages, Miller, like his friend and mentor DeMarcus Ware, will lean on his experience and football IQ to fill the vacuum created by Father Time.
Don't be surprised if Miller attacks the 2020 season like a man with a mission intent on reminding the NFL of exactly who he is. If Chubb bounces back to form, it'd be a safe bet to wager Miller will make 2020 the year of redemption for him, even if it takes having to rely on that asset between his ears more than he's had to in years past.
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