PFF Study Reveals why Broncos Can't be Done Adding to Secondary This Offseason
NFL free agency hasn’t even begun yet and the Denver Broncos have already filled one of their most dire needs heading into the 2020 offseason. Sending the fourth-round pick acquired from San Francisco via the Emmanuel Sanders trade, the Broncos obtained cornerback A.J. Bouye from the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Despite coming off of a down year to Bouye’s previously set standards, the 28-year old corner still should have a few prime years left that coincide with the two years left on his contract. The trade likely spells the end of Chris Harris, Jr.’s time in Denver, but nevertheless, GM John Elway came out of this trade with a starting-caliber cornerback and one less gaping hole on the roster before Free Agency kicks off on March 18.
Despite knocking out a relatively strong need at cornerback via Bouye's arrival, the Broncos should be far from done at bolstering the secondary this offseason. Bouye was no doubt a strong start to ramping up the Broncos’ 2020 roster in an attempt to close the gap with the Kansas City Chiefs but the depth at cornerback for the defensive backfield still remains highly questionable.
Last year, the Broncos signed free-agent CB Bryce Callahan from the Chicago Bears to a three-year, $21 million contract to help bolster the depth. Unfortunately, Callahan, who was attempting to recover from a foot surgery, suffered a setback in training camp that would end up costing him the entirety of the 2019 season.
Given Callahan’s past play as well as his contract, the Broncos have little choice but to rely on Callahan to play some role at corner in 2020, but given his year off and consistent injury issues surrounding his foot, depending on Callahan to have a massive impact next season is risky.
Despite warranted concerns about Callahan’s level of play after a year off on top of multiple foot issues, there doesn’t appear to be much in terms of equitable competition for him currently on the roster. Isaac Yiadom seemed to struggle in the transition from the defense deployed by Denver in 2018 to the Vic Fangio schemed defense in 2019, reportedly losing confidence on top of his ups and downs on tape.
Davontae Harris flashed but seemed to regress the more snaps he played. Duke Dawson had some reps at slot only to lose that spot to Will Parks, who outperformed Dawson in that role and is now hitting unrestricted free agency. De’Vante Bausby flashed upside, but only over a very small sample size.
Denver may bring Bausby back, but didn’t like him enough to tender him and avoid the open market. All in all, the cornerback group and the recent level of play by those there leaves a lot to be desired on paper.
There is always the chance that under the tutelage of Fangio and DC Ed Donatell one of these current depth players takes an unexpected ‘leap’ in 2020. After all, Fangio and Donatell are known for their work in maximizing talent and output from their defensive players, but Elway should know better than to think the addition of Bouye, on top of the corners and safeties already on the roster, should be enough to call it an offseason.
PFF Weighs in
In a recent study conducted by Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, an analysis was done on the impact of star players versus depth players in terms of defensive outcomes and performance. PFF predicted that defenses were in fact more depth-dependent than star-dependent, given that opposing offenses had the power to identify and exploit a defense's weakness.
An anecdotal example of this would be the Broncos with Champ Bailey versus the Peyton Manning led Colts in the playoffs back in the early 2000s. In the end, it did not matter how great Bailey was because Manning would find and exploit the mismatch of the weaker coverage players.
The end results of the study concluded that a defense’s performance, specifically in coverage, is a function of lesser-regarded players as opposed to a defense's ‘stars’.
"It’s not exactly your ‘stars' who impact coverage outcomes, it’s how depth performs.”
Eager further delves down the rabbit-hole of how important having depth in the secondary matters in regards to limiting the choices of opposing offenses. Obviously, opposing offenses want to get the ball to their best players, but if your defense has a great No. 1 cornerback but barely a starter level (or worse) at CB2, CB3, and even further down, offenses can dictate matchups and pick their poison, exploiting weaker coverage players.
“Offenses are what mostly control processes in football, and they have the free will to target, avoid and/or work around an opposing defense’s top players. Whether secondary and tertiary players are weak fundamentally or playing more than they should be due to injuries, it’s very difficult for a defense to “hide” them from the opposition. Only if secondary and tertiary players are up to the task will it be tough for an offense to have success through a limitation of choices.”
Not only does the study point towards the importance of coverage players and investing in the secondary at the top, but all the way through the depth chart. Also, and even more so for Denver in a scheme that puts more coverage weight on their linebackers and safeties, the Broncos should look to invest in coverage players all throughout the back seven of the defense.
Sure, it’s nice to have ‘studs’ but being solid across the entire back-end can provide the most value for Denver.
What it Means for Broncos
While some will call the Broncos somewhat foolish for trading for someone like Bouye instead of obtaining the higher prestige and far more costly Darius Slay or Byron Jones, perhaps the Broncos are simply ahead of the curve in resource allocation when it comes to building a defense.
Instead of giving up an early draft pick and a massive contract for Slay, or a record high deal for Jones, Denver now has a good corner in Bouye for less cost ($13.5M/year) allowing Denver to use those savings elsewhere. Whether those savings are used on a linebacker with far better coverage upside than Todd Davis or Alexander Johnson, another cornerback to help add further talent and depth to the unit such as Darqueze Dennard or Prince Amukamara, or a third safety to fill the (likely) vacancy by Parks' likely departure.
Obtaining Bouye was an excellent start in revamping what was the ‘No Fly Zone’ in Denver, but to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, it cannot be the last move Denver makes to amplify their secondary talent in 2020. Whether it be with one of the five picks the Broncos hold in the top-100 of the draft, or the ample cap space that the team is set to have this free agency period, Elway and company must invest in the quality of the depth of the secondary.
Also, with Fangio’s NFL Combine comments in regards to playing more 6-DB sets to help negate some coverage demands at linebacker, this need for quality depth only expands for the Broncos in 2020. Given that defensive performance and coverage outcomes are far more indicated in the secondary and tertiary-level players on the depth chart via the PFF study, expect more moves to address the back seven this offseason from Elway and the Broncos.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
