Kelberman's Korner: Predicting Broncos' Season-Opener vs. Titans
To kick off the inaugural Kelberman’s Korner Q&A, I chose to deep-dive into a layered query I received from Twitter user @broncossummer20, who recently asked the following question:
“What’s your way-too-early Broncos-Titans score prediction? Looking at the loss of key veterans and new defensive coaching staff for the Titans, I think our offense should score between 24-28 points. Looking on our defensive side, I think we can probably keep Henry in check. 24-14.”
As soon as I saw this matchup on the Broncos’ schedule, I had a hunch it’d be spotlighted in primetime. And for good reason. Last year’s Cinderella team versus this year’s hopeful glass slipper-wearer, one smashmouth foe facing another. Drew Lock vs. Ryan Tannehill. Jurrell Casey’s grudge match.
The NFL knew what they were doing here.
This, being the first live-bullet display following a ruined offseason and likely unique training camp and preseason, has the earmarks of a sloppy, low-scoring defensive struggle. Tennessee finished 12th in 2019 in scoring defense; the Broncos ranked 10th.
The Titans are led by franchise-tagged running back Derrick Henry; the Broncos now feature presumed workhorse Melvin Gordon. Tannehill could be a flash in the pan and Lock remains unproven, until otherwise, as a sophomore starter.
Ironically, both teams have identical game plans: Make the opposing QB beat them.
Thus, as always, this will come down to those under center. Will Tannehill revert to his lesser, Dolphins form? Is Lock able to take that much-hyped next step?
Neither is a good bet to light up the scoreboard, and judging by Vegas’ 1.5-point line (Broncos are favorites), few expect the goal line to be frequently crossed, on either side.
Look for the squads to ride their respective ground games until the wheels fall off. Tannehill will use Henry to set up play-action — his bread and butter — while Lock should feed Gordon and Phillip Lindsay as he adjusts to a revamped receiving core featuring first- and second-round rookies Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.
Me, personally, I have more confidence in both Denver’s defense and Vic Fangio’s scheme than I do Tennessee and Mike Vrabel’s. Add onto that the Broncos’ sparkling 22-2 home record in games that occur within the first two weeks of the regular season, and the worries abate.
If this contest were on the road, I’d have more pause. But I’m fairly confident in projecting a slim Broncos victory that may come down to the final possession, whether it’s Lock leading a game-winning touchdown drive or Fangio’s unit securing the dub in dramatic fashion (I smell a Justin Simmons interception).
Score prediction: 19-13.
On to Pittsburgh…
Follow Zack on Twitter @KelbermanNFL and @MileHighHuddle
