Predicting What 2020 Holds for Broncos' LB Corps Without Todd Davis
The ‘final’ wave of cuts has come and gone and the Denver Broncos' roster now stands at an official 53 players. The Broncos are still likely to move a few players to and from the roster before taking on the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football, but all-in-all, the players on the depth chart now will make up a majority of the roster throughout the 2020 season.
Given the nature of training camp and the offseason programs in general amid a pandemic, the Broncos managed to pull off a few head-scratching moves leading up to the regular season. However, none matched the confusion of that came with the release of linebacker Todd Davis.
Davis was never going to be considered an All-Pro talent at the off-ball linebacker position. While he had his fair share of struggles in pass coverage as do a majority of linebackers, he was the signal-caller of the defense and exceptional in his run fits. Davis was limited but he also was more than a simple two-down thumper that is going the way of the dinosaur in today’s NFL.
There can be no doubt that cutting Davis destabilizes the Broncos’ defense on the precipice of the season. He was known as a leader, an intelligent player, and was well-liked in the Denver locker room.
However, after suffering another calf injury before the start of the season and Denver shedding $4.5 million in cap as a result of Davis’ release, the Broncos are now searching for answers at the linebacker position.
Linebacker, perhaps a somewhat over-glamorized position on the NFL landscape, seemed solid and set for the Denver defense in 2020. Alexander Johnson came roaring onto the scene last year with an incredible Week 5 performance to never relinquish the starting role.
He and Davis would go on to be a consistent duo manning the middle of the defense. Neither are truly dynamic coverage athletes in space, but they were far from a liability.
Destabilizing the middle of the defense before the start of any seasons seems hair-brained at best, but doing so before taking on the physical run offense of the Tennessee Titans with freight-train running back Derrick Henry and play-action happy Ryan Tannehill makes the move even more confusing.
Why did this happen?
Cap Casualty
It's no secret that in the world of NFL teams, the Broncos are not cash-rich. The Bowlen Family’s fortune is mainly tied up in the Broncos franchise while other organization’s ownership groups are flush with cash from outside enterprises.
Until the Broncos’ ownership situation stabilizes, either within the Bowlen family or to new ownership, the team is not going to be able to pay players like other teams with deeper pockets. The salary cap does level the playing field a bit, but in the world of guaranteed contracts, signing bonuses, and salary cap gurus, Denver is behind most other teams.
The Broncos' decision to move on from Davis could be mostly financial in order to increase their 2020 cap room to create more rollover cap heading into what could be a very odd 2021 offseason with the financial state of the league due to COVID-19. $4.5 million may not seem like that much in comparison to some contracts in the league, but it’s $4.5 million more to roll over than the team had before, resulting in a total of $28 million in cap room entering this season.
Coverage Upside
The Broncos could also be looking to go a different, younger, cheaper, and healthier option at linebacker opposite Johnson. With Johnson being a much more ‘in the box’ physical presence at linebacker, maybe Vic Fangio and the Broncos are looking for more coverage upside alongside Johnson.
The Broncos did sign longtime veteran linebacker Mark Barron. Barron should provide a bit of a boost in athleticism and coverage from the middle of the defense but don’t be led astray by his previous safety experience or first-round draft pedigree; he is far from a coverage dynamo even from the linebacker position. Barron will provide better athleticism and (likely) coverage than Davis would have, but there are sacrifices made elsewhere in the switch.
Barron is decently physical for a classic thumper box safety, but he will be an obvious drop-off from Davis in his ability to fit against the run and take on blockers near the line of scrimmage. Due to these limitations, Barron is likely to not see the field in true base packages with the Broncos lined up in the 3-4 defense, but rather coming on the field when Denver is aligned in some sort of sub-package in nickel, dime, quarter, or some variation.
Johnson with Barron at linebacker in sub-packages has some potential to be effective, but what will Denver do in its pure base packages? It looks like that role will be filled by 2018 fourth-round pick Josey Jewell.
Giving Jewell a Shot
Jewell racked up stats at the University of Iowa but has struggled to make a positive impact so far in the NFL. As a slower and smaller linebacker, Jewell has to rely on his instincts and intelligence to overcome his athletic deficiencies. So far the results in Denver have been underwhelming.
Playing Jewell in base defense and Barron in sub-packages, theoretically, the Broncos could replace Davis’ production with the two different linebackers. However, will that work on the field as well?
In reality, the Broncos are probably treading water in an attempt to replace Davis long-term. Johnson will have to carry a much larger brunt of the defensive management and linebacker responsibilities this year with Davis now a free agent, but the level of player many will want opposite Johnson is likely not Jewell or Barron and possibly not even on the Broncos’ roster right now.
Bottom Line: Don't Expect Another LB Miracle
Given the demands of the linebacker position in Fangio's coverage scheme, as well as Denver’s repeated interest in high-profile linebackers in the previous two offseasons (free agency and draft), the team is likely looking for a true three-down linebacker who can perform in coverage as well as against the run.
Johnson came out of nowhere last year and could be an aberration, so another linebacker emerging like that in 2020 seems unlikely for the Denver defense. Instead, the solution at the other linebacker spot likely comes in the future.
Entering a contract year, Davis was obviously not the long-term option for the Broncos at linebacker, but it still is shocking to see the team move on from the veteran this close to the start of the season. Denver can perhaps get by with the combo of Jewell and Barron, but that is only a stopgap to a long-term solution.
Let’s just hope for the Broncos’ sake, the sudden shakeup doesn’t resemble last year’s horrific linebacker play to start 2019 with Corey Nelson (who was signed on the doorstep of the season-opener) and Jewell. Week 1 against the Titans should provide a clear picture of just where Denver’s linebacker corps stands right out of the gate.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
