Previewing Broncos' Biggest Roster Decisions in 2021
The Denver Broncos will be at a crossroads after this season, in which they will need to figure out which players are going to stay and which are likely to leave. Due to the NFL salary cap being projected to drop in 2021, though it won't drop lower than $176 million, the Broncos (and other teams) are going to be faced with some difficult decisions.
Looking at Over the Cap's numbers, I thought they hadn't yet included cap carryover in projections for 2021, but the site indeed has done that. The Broncos thus don't have as much space as I anticipated for 2021 — they'll have about $29.8M in space, with effective cap space of $24.5M once they get 53 players under contract.
That's still more cap space than most teams will have — the Broncos will have the ninth-most in effective cap space. But Denver will still have to determine which players to retain and which to part ways with to make room for those players. Part of this also goes back to how certain players will perform the remainder of the season. A player who is inconsistent or sees his performance drop too much isn't likely to be retained.
I'll go into more detail in the coming weeks about certain decisions that the Broncos will have to make (and will make note of those I plan to discuss), but let's go over each position to figure out which way things may be trending.
Note: I'm operating under the assumption that the Broncos don't complete any trades before the deadline.
Quarterback
Regardless of what happens with Drew Lock, one thing is clear: The Broncos will need to cut Jeff Driskel after the season. Cutting him saves $2.5M in cap space.
What happens from there depends on Lock. If he leaves little to no doubt this season that he's the guy to build around, the Broncos can go with Brett Rypien and a Day 3 draft pick to compete for the backup job.
But if there are too many doubts about Lock, the Broncos will have to decide whether to pursue a veteran in free agency or use an earlier draft pick on a quarterback. Denver can't just move forward with Rypien behind Lock — they'll need another QB who can be a fall-back option.
Running Back
One move is easy: Phillip Lindsay should get the second-round restricted free-agent tender. He's not likely to get an extension right away, but will be a candidate to extend after 2021.
As for Melvin Gordon, it's easy for fans to insist he be cut, but then you're paying him $4.5M to play elsewhere. His DUI earlier this season isn't enough to void his guarantees, unless he gets another off-field infraction or he otherwise causes issues in the locker room. His fumbling has been a problem this year (three lost), but he's played well other than that, so he's likely sticking around in 2021.
There may be questions about Royce Freeman, who's due just $970,000 next season, but might be in line for escalators based on his production. If he does get those escalators, the Broncos may need to trade him, then draft a back for depth — one who could potentially replace Gordon when his deal expires after 2021.
Wide Receiver
The main decision will be what to do with Tim Patrick, who is a restricted free agent. He's played well and could warrant a second-round tender.
However, Courtland Sutton will be back from injury and he, along with Patrick, would be unrestricted free agents in 2022. The Broncos won't be able to keep both after that season.
So the Broncos may have to think about tendering, then trading Patrick if he keeps playing well, so the team can get a pick for him while his value is still high.
I'll explain more in a future article, but this is something Broncos fans should think about because, as good as Patrick has played, Sutton still has the higher ceiling, even after his injury.
Tight End
Cutting Nick Vannett is an option that should be on the table, but the Broncos don't have to do it right away, because his $2.7M salary — which includes a workout bonus and per-game roster bonuses — isn't guaranteed.
The Broncos will need to get a tight end who can block and it doesn't appear likely that Jake Butt will be that guy. He's a restricted free agent and may not be tendered.
Signing a cheap veteran who is an upgrade over Vannett is an option. Another option is to use a day three pick on a blocking tight end — while it hasn't always worked out for the Broncos, it did when they took Virgil Green in the seventh round in 2011.
Offensive Tackle
Ja'Wuan James will be back next season, so right tackle should hopefully be stabilized. Meanwhile, Garett Bolles is playing well and will top the list of unrestricted free agents to keep. With the cap dropping, the franchise tag for Bolles will be about $14M — a little more than the fifth-year option, but still a number the Broncos can work with.
If the Broncos don't keep Bolles, they'll have to prioritize offensive tackle in free agency and the draft, with any free-agent acquisition likely to be a stopgap for a tackle who is drafted and developed.
Keeping Bolles doesn't take offensive tackle off the table, though, because Elijah Wilkinson and Demar Dotson are unrestricted free agents and won't be back. A Day 2 draft pick should be used on a tackle who will be the swing tackle for a year, and a potential starter in future seasons.
I'll talk more about Bolles in a later piece.
Interior O-Line
The Broncos are pretty much set at these positions for next season, though it wouldn't hurt to add an interior offensive lineman who can play center and push Lloyd Cushenberry.
The Broncos can get a center by either finding a cheap free agent or using a Day 3 draft pick. Denver shouldn't spend big for a quick fix and save their money for other needs.
Defensive Line
The Broncos usually keep one defensive lineman on a higher-priced veteran contract, while looking for value otherwise. This past season, Jurrell Casey was supposed to be that veteran, but an injury cut his season short.
That likely means Casey will be a cap casualty next season — but it could open the door for an extension for Shelby Harris to be that higher-priced veteran.
Harris didn't get much interest in free agency last year, which is why he had to take the one-year deal from the Broncos. He's playing better now, and has a chance to get more money, but if he does, how much? I'll talk more about it in a later piece.
Mike Purcell did get an extension, but his deal was in line for what nose tackles get and won't prevent the Broncos from either keeping Harris or adding another veteran.
Edge Rusher
Of all the higher-priced veterans with no guaranteed money left in their deals, I expect Von Miller to stick around. It's true he's not getting any younger, but he's a valued member of the locker room and, while there's no guarantee he'll be a Bronco for life, I think the team sees him as a face of the franchise and want him to finish out his deal.
Picking up the fifth-year option for Bradley Chubb will be a no-brainer decision and it's likely the Broncos let Jeremiah Attaochu depart in free agency. Malik Reed isn't playing at the elite level some may think he is, but he's shown he can be a good depth player and part of the rotation.
The Broncos are almost certain to draft an edge rusher, given how deep the class is expected to be, and because they need to prepare in case they don't keep Miller beyond 2021.
Off-Ball Linebacker
Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell have been solid but not great overall this year. Still, I expect Johnson to get the second-round tender as a restricted free agent, and Jewell to stick around even when escalators in his rookie deal kick in.
The hope is that Justin Strnad will be healthy and ready to contribute next season, but this will be a position that, once again, the Broncos will need to look for help.
I doubt the Broncos go heavy in free agency here, but the draft is a definite possibility. This position may be where they will keep an eye on talent on day two of the draft.
Cornerback
The Broncos will have to ask themselves whether or not they can afford to keep A.J. Bouye in 2021. His cap number will be high and the Broncos may want to commit their cap and cash elsewhere.
Bryce Callahan is on a lower-priced contract and Michael Ojemudia has impressed as a rookie, so the Broncos might be willing to go with those two, cut Bouye, then sign a lower-priced veteran or draft a corner early.
The cornerback situation could tie into the next position's situation.
Safety
What may influence the Broncos' decision about Bouye is what they do with Justin Simmons. If they are prepared to make him a top-paid safety, they may move on from Bouye to make it possible.
Another possibility is for the Broncos to cut Kareem Jackson, who has a fairly high cap charge and isn't playing as well as he did last season. If Jackson were cut, though, the Broncos would need another safety, even if they keep Simmons.
That could mean exploring free agency for a lower-cost option or drafting a safety. The latter is likely to happen, even if both Simmons and Jackson are retained.
One last thing about Simmons; the Broncos may be asking how much it's worth to keep him, given that many teams with top-paid safeties aren't getting enough value in return. I'll talk more about this in a later piece.
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