Russell Wilson Could Be in Line for Big Production per Advanced Metric
The Denver Broncos are riding a five-game winning streak into the home stretch of the 2023 season. Fans now have playoffs on the brain, something that seemed like a fantasy after the first couple of games this season.
The question now is whether the Broncos can put enough wins together to at least claim a Wild Card berth. Denver holds tiebreakers over several teams still in the playoff hunt but has to face other AFC teams in the running — most notably, the Houston Texans — this week's opponent.
Some have described the Broncos' remaining schedule as soft, which some fans may find absurd. Nothing can be taken for granted, of course, but the remaining schedule may tell the tale about one thing: How good Russell Wilson can be.
Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metric shows that the Broncos are facing the easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses but a difficult schedule of opposing run defenses. As he wrote in his Week 12 Quick Reads, that could bode well for Denver's passing game.
The Los Angeles Chargers, who the Broncos face twice, are ranked 25th in pass defense. The Texans, who the Broncos face this week, are ranked 26th, while the New England Patriots are ranked 24th. The Detroit Lions are ranked 13th but, as Schatz noted, have declined in recent weeks.
Wilson played well overall against the Cleveland Browns this past week, even if he didn’t put up big passing numbers. He attempted just 22 passes but completed 13 for 134 yards and a touchdown pass to Adam Trautman. Still, Wilson’s decision-making may have been his best yet this season.
It’s worth noting that Wilson threw for 300 yards in the Broncos' Week 2 and Week 3 losses — though in the latter game in Miami, he had to throw a lot because the team was in a big hole early on. Still, if upcoming opponents are able to contain the Broncos’ run game, the Broncos may have to look to Wilson for more offensive production.
But to Wilson’s credit, he is playing better. It’s worth noting that, in Schatz’s Quick Reads, Wilson had 123 total DYAR, with his 117 passing DYAR boosted from 55 because it came against a good Browns passing defense. The Texans are holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry, so this week’s game could be one in which we find out how well things go when Wilson has to take a bigger role.
But his performance against the Browns gives room for cautious optimism. While the Broncos won’t necessarily run the RPO regularly against the Texans, Wilson’s improved play in recent weeks means he just might come through if he has to take on a bigger load.
That doesn’t mean Wilson has to put the offense on his shoulders. It simply means that if opposing teams are able to limit the run game, Wilson needs to come through.
If Wilson does answer the bell, that will not only bode well for the Broncos’ playoff hopes but also for his future with the Broncos after this season. Strong play from Wilson in the final games increases the chance he will be back in 2024.
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