Predicting Whether Russell Wilson Will be Part of Broncos' Rebuild
During the 2022 offseason, the Denver Broncos acquired Russell Wilson in a blockbuster trade with the Seattle Seahawks. Although Wilson's arrival elevated expectations for the Broncos, a playoff berth failed to materialize.
While blame could be assigned to the 2022 coaching staff — and rightly so — plenty asked whether or not Wilson was really the quarterback to build around. The only problem was that the Broncos extended Wilson before the regular season started.
In 2023, a new head coach took over. Sean Payton.
And while Wilson looks better than he did in 2022, he doesn’t look the part of a quarterback who can take the Broncos to the next level.
That begs the question: Will Wilson be part of the Broncos after 2023?
While Wilson hasn’t been terrible by any means, he hasn’t been great, either. How good he actually is depends on how you examine statistics.
On one hand, Wilson has thrown for 16 touchdown passes with four interceptions. He has already matched his touchdown tally from 2022, halfway through the 2023 season, and, thus, is on pace for 34 touchdowns, which would match his 2017 tally.
On the other hand, Wilson’s overall play leaves a few things to be desired. He tends to hold onto the ball longer than he should and has been inconsistent with how he has handled drives. This is often reflected in advanced stats, such as ESPN QBR, which has him at 45.3 for the season.
The Broncos have found ways to win with Wilson by emphasizing the running game over the passing game. And the Broncos' defense, which struggled in the first five games of the season, has played better in recent weeks.
However, it’s fair to ask whether the Broncos can continue to win games by emphasizing the running game and having the defense take on a greater burden. It may be doable for a season, but over the long term, Denver needs the passing game to thrive to take pressure off the run game and defense.
And that’s why it’s fair to ask whether Wilson can be part of a rebuild. In order for the Broncos to do that, they need a quarterback who can produce regularly in the passing game.
Given that Wilson’s 2025 base salary of $37 million will become fully guaranteed if he’s on the roster as of March 21, 2024, the Broncos may not have a choice but to move on from him.
It’s not because every issue with the Broncos is on Wilson’s shoulders. That’s not the case. It’s because Wilson has enough issues with his play that it’s hard for the Broncos to justify keeping him for a longer period than they should at his cost.
As we’ve discussed before, cutting Wilson would be doable but painful. The Broncos would take on $35.4M in dead money for 2024 with a post-June 1 designated cut, plus $49.6M in dead money in 2025.
A trade would allow the Broncos to get out of the $22M option bonus and $17M base salary Wilson is due in 2024, though they would take on a dead money charge of $46M from his 2022 signing bonus and 2023 option bonus (which is treated like a signing bonus when exercised).
With a trade, the Broncos would not only have to find an interested suitor but a team that Wilson is willing to play for because he has a no-trade clause in his contract.
Regardless, if the Broncos are serious about a rebuild, they have to get serious about what happens with Wilson. They don’t want to be on the hook for his 2025 base salary.
Unless Wilson’s play improves a lot down the stretch, the reality is the Broncos may part ways with him after the season. For a rebuild to actually happen, the Broncos need a quarterback who can do enough in the passing game to take pressure off the rest of the team.
The Broncos are coming off a big win over the Kansas City Chiefs, who remain the favorite to win the AFC West. But one win over a top team isn’t enough to justify keeping Wilson in 2024.
Wilson may not be the team’s biggest problem, but that doesn’t mean he’s the guy the team can build around.
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