Russell Wilson Addresses Future with Broncos Before Abrupt Podium Exit
The Denver Broncos' playoff hopes came crashing down as the team imploded in Christmas Eve's 26-23 loss to the New England Patriots. The Broncos dug themselves a brutal 16-point deficit to open the fourth quarter, and although he opened the period with just 84 passing yards, quarterback Russell Wilson was the reason his team stormed back to tie it with 3:40 left in the game.
It was another frustrating Wilson performance, though, most of which was uncannily similar to Tim Tebow's 2011 body of work in Denver. Wilson is obviously a much more gifted and polished passer than Tebow, but the former Heisman Trophy winner's penchant for painfully stinking up the joint for three-and-a-half-quarters, only to turn on the juice and channel late-game miracles is shared by the Broncos' current quarterback.
With the Broncos' dropping to 7-8 on the season, their playoff odds have plummeted to a bleak 5%, giving rise to questions about Wilson's future with the Broncos. After the game, local radio host Darren McKee asked Wilson about his future in Denver.
“I’m just worried about next week and playing great football," Wilson said somewhat despondently. "I came here to win and win a championship for us and to find a way to do that. I obviously love being here with these guys, these teammates. I’m excited to keep playing ball and playing hard for us.”
A few queries later, Wilson uncharacteristically exited the podium abruptly with a "'Ppreciate you guys" after being asked (and answering) to "do the math" on his team's playoff odds as an eight-loss squad. It was obviously a rough night for Russ, and one that came with some near-absolute consequences, but I wonder how much of his abrupt exit was due to the question about his future.
If Wilson is on the Broncos' roster on March 21, 2024, his entire $37 million salary for next season becomes fully guaranteed. This has led some in the media to circle that date as a deadline for the Broncos.
But the reality is, Sean Payton doesn't have much choice in the matter because of the dead-money hits the Broncos' salary cap would have to absorb if the team moves on from Wilson. If designated a post-June 1 release, Wilson would carry a $35.4M dead-cap hit in 2024 alone, which would be followed by $18.4M in 2025 and 2026, and $8.4M in 2027.
The last year Wilson is on the Broncos' books is 2028, which, if made a post-June 1 cut in 2024, finally drops to a $4.4M dead-cap hit. As for being a pre-June 1 cut, you don't even want to contemplate the fallout, as the Year 1 dead-cap hit alone is $85M.
These are the consequences of signing the nine-time Pro Bowler to a five-year extension in August of 2022 worth $245M. Wilson got $165M guaranteed, which came with a $124M signing bonus — all before he ever took a regular-season snap as a Bronco.
The Broncos opened up the Brinks truck after relinquishing multiple first and second-round picks (plus more), as well as three players, one of whom was a former first-rounder and another a second-rounder, to Seattle to acquire Wilson. If he had come in and produced at a level commensurate with his perennial Pro Bowl resume, the contract wouldn't be so bad.
But when Wilson is earning an APY of $49M, and the Broncos aren't getting results in the standings, that contract, and the way it was structured, becomes an immense albatross hanging around the team's neck. And the fact that the Broncos are already projected to be over the cap by $18.1M in 2024 only limits the team's options further.
Has it been all bad from Wilson? No, not this year. Payton has definitely been a net positive on the veteran signal-caller in his 12th season.
Wilson went 25-of-37 for 238 yards and two touchdowns in Saturday night's loss. While he didn't throw a pick, he did lose a fumble, and that ratio was emblematic of his overall season — very few picks but still too many turnovers.
“I was proud of how he battled, especially when we were down two touchdowns," Payton said of Wilson post-game. "He is fighting and gets us back in it. It is difficult to do and yet he did it in pretty timely fashion.”
Last year under Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson threw just 16 touchdown passes to 11 interceptions. Under Payton, Wilson has a 26-to-8 TD-to-INT ratio, which, on the surface, is modestly impressive considering his 2022 resume — and it's the most passing scores by a Broncos QB since Peyton Manning's 39 in 2014.
But it belies the painful lack of passing yards, which has held the Broncos back offensively. Wilson surpassed 3,000 yards on Saturday night (3,070) in what was his 15th game of the season. That averages out to 204.6 passing yards per game, and in today's NFL, it's not enough to keep up with the juggernauts littering the 17-game schedule.
Part of that is due to Payton's philosophical decision to be a run-first offense, which is meant to insulate Wilson and help play to his strengths as a play-action passer. However, Wilson has failed to capitalize on Payton's catering, leaving way too many yards out on the field, whether it's because he holds onto the ball too long, throws incomplete, or misses wide-open receivers.
There's a reason why Wilson is being asked to discuss his future with the Broncos, despite being under contract for another five years. The term of his deal with the Broncos actually doesn't even start until next season (five years left to go). He's been playing on the vestiges of the last contract he signed in Seattle, although he's been paid the new money by the Broncos, including the signing bonus.
Wilson enters his age-36 season in 2024. Payton enters Year 2 of his mission to bring the Broncos back to prominence.
It sucks to see Wilson failing to be that tide that raises the Broncos' ship like a franchise quarterback is supposed to be. And while the Broncos' foibles aren't all on Wilson, many of them start with the quarterback's limitations.
That's the rub.
Despite the big dead-money disincentive to move on from Wilson in 2024, this will be a storyline that won't go away until March 21. Until then, get used to the questions, theories, speculation, and rumors of Wilson's future with the Broncos.
Paradoxically, the Broncos seem to have reached a ceiling with 'Mr. Unlimited' at quarterback. The numbers imply that Payton has little choice but to run it back with Wilson for at least two more years to avoid a crippling dead-cap hit, but he's also the type of swashbuckling head coach who's unafraid of bucking NFL convention and blazing new trails.
Stay tuned.
UPDATE: On Wednesday, the Broncos reportedly benched Wilson for the final two games of the season to prevent any further financial outlay in the event of injury. Jarrett Stidham will start.
End of an era.
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