3 Reasons Why the Broncos Shouldn’t Trade Up for a QB
With the NFL draft right around the corner, the rumor mill has started to really heat up as of late. Every day you see a different mock draft, with entirely different scenarios of what will happen in Round 1 on April 29.
The hot debate in the Mile High City has been centered squarely around the quarterback position. Should the Denver Broncos maneuver up the draft board to select a QB?
Can Denver stay at pick No. 9 and hope a top signal-caller falls? Or do the Broncos choose to address the position on Day 2 or 3 instead?
One thing is for sure, the Broncos will certainly add a QB to the roster between now and the start of training camp. Which route will the team takes in order to improve the QB room is the question.
However, there's one move the Broncos might be wary of making. This team should not trade up for a QB and here are three reasons why GM George Paton may opt against doing so to address the position.
Reason 1: Nobody Knows What Niners Will Do (Including SF)
At this point, you can go ahead and Sharpie in Trevor Lawrence as the first overall pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars. And odds also have the New York Jets taking BYU QB Zach Wilson at No. 2 overall.
The giant mystery surrounding the top of this draft right now is what the Niners do at pick 3. Given the capital the Niners gave up to get there, it’s a pretty safe bet to assume they're targeting a QB. But which one?
Trey Lance? Justin Fields? Mac Jones?
You’ve got to give the Niners credit here — they've kept their plans extremely safeguarded, which creates a real challenge for any team behind them that wants to move up in the first round. Let’s just say the Broncos have fallen in love with either Lance or Fields, enough to where Paton is okay giving up additional first-round picks to move up.
Why would he make the move to No. 4 without knowing for certain that he’d get his guy? Now, that doesn’t rule out a potential draft day trade.
If the Niners end up taking the player the Broncos do not want, Paton could conceivably have a draft-day deal in place and would pounce on the opportunity. But until draft day — moving up comes with its risks.
Reason 2: The Broncos Have a lot of Other Roster Needs to Address
While the Broncos’ 2021 roster looks great on paper, positions like running back, right tackle, inside linebacker, edge rusher, cornerback, and strong safety will all become glaring holes beyond this season.
In order to avoid having a laundry list of needs next offseason, it would be prudent for Paton to get ahead of some of these positions by addressing them in this year’s draft. And that’s not to say these players would not be contributors to this year’s roster.
Depth is something that is still lacking with this team, and as we saw with the 2020 season, a shortage of depth can quickly ruin a team's season once injuries start piling up.
Reason 3: The Cost to Move Up Will be High
In order to get the No. 3 overall pick from the Miami Dolphins, the Niners gave up their own first-round choice (12), a third-round pick in this year’s draft, along with first-round choices in 2022 and 2023.
Denver moving up to No. 4 overall, which is currently held by the Atlanta Falcons, isn’t quite the jump that San Francisco made, so one would assume the cost would be slightly lower. Even so, it's a near-certainty that a future first-rounder would have to be included to get a deal done, and likely more.
There are some other factors that could drive up the cost even more. For one, there is no guarantee that Atlanta even wants to move out of pick 4.
The Falcons could have their sights set on one of the top QBs as well, or on Florida tight end Kyle Pitts. So in this scenario, a larger trade package may be needed to convince them to trade back.
Lastly, there could be other teams who want to move into the same spot. Other QB-needy teams like Washington, New England, Chicago, and even Detroit may create a bidding war, which would likely increase the price for Denver.
Bottom Line
At the end of the day, Paton is going to turn over every QB stone before ultimately making a move to improve the position. You can bet he has explored all possibilities, including the cost to move up to probably every spot in front of pick 9.
Paton has been very calculated this entire offseason, exercising patience and not rushing into moves the team will later regret. If he continues this trend, I find it hard to believe he'd give up the farm to acquire what will likely be the fourth QB taken in this draft — unless he is absolutely certain that player is going to catapult the Broncos back into Super Bowl contention.
Even though he’s a first-time GM, he's an NFL personnel veteran, and Paton hasn’t really given us any reasons to doubt him to this point, so the confidence level he will ultimately make the right move for the franchise remains high.
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