What the Week 1 Advanced Analytics Tell Us About State of Broncos
The Denver Broncos fell short in their season opener. The Broncos showed promise in some areas in their 16-14 loss to the Tennessee Titans, but showed in others that there's still a lot to improve.
Players and coaches alike were responsible for the good and the bad and, while it's easy to focus on one or two things — especially at the end of the game — they all add up to the outcome.
With that said, it was Week 1 of the NFL season, which has been dubbed 'National Jump to Conclusions Week' by Football Outsiders' Aaron Schatz. But while we can't learn everything about every team from Week 1, we can learn a few things.
One thing we can learn is how efficient teams are in all three aspects of the game and what players represent more value to their teams. That brings me to Football Outsiders' advanced analytics.
I already looked at FO's 2020 projections and, each week, I'll revisit them to analyze how the Broncos are measuring up in FO's analysis. Let's see what we it has to say.
Team Efficiency
The Broncos rank 24th overall in DVOA at -17.1 percent, with -13.3 percent on offense (23rd overall), 3.9 percent on defense (19th overall), and 0.1 percent on speical teams (11th overall).
What keeps the Broncos lower on offense is certainly their third-quarter outing, in which the offense's first two drives went for seven yards and minus-4 yards — that's three yards total, with five yards passing from Drew Lock and minus-2 yards rushing from Melvin Gordon.
Though the Broncos scored on their third drive, two drives for three combined yards to open the second half isn't going to get it done. Those weren't the only drives that stalled, so it's no secret why DVOA doesn't favor the offense.
The defense isn't favored, either, though it's not as bad as the offense — and part of it can be attributed to injuries. As for special teams, Sam Martin clearly made a difference there.
One thing to keep in mind, though: Because DVOA is based only on one game thus far, it's not a clear indicator of where the Broncos are.
We do know the Broncos need to get better at moving the ball on offense and get healthy on defense, and that special teams should be better this year. Otherwise, we'll need to see more in the coming weeks.
Broncos' Opponents
DVOA hasn't taken strength of schedule into account yet, and won't do so until after four weeks. But I'll look at the Broncos' first four opponents to see where they are now and what they might be like in the weeks to come.
Tennessee Titans: They're ranked 22nd overall in DVOA at -14.3 percent. DVOA sees the Titans' defense as top 10, the offense as average and special teams as the worst in the league (the last certainly thanks to Stephen Gostowski).
They get the Jaguars, Vikings and Steelers in the next three weeks. DVOA has all three in the top 10, but who knows if that will last. My opinion is the Titans are more likely to settle into the middle of the pack, but we'll know for sure after four weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Ranked fifth overall in DVOA at 36 percent, the Steelers faced a bad New York Giants team in Week One. Along with the Broncos this week and the Titans in Week Four, they get the Texans in Week Three.
I do believe the Steelers will be a playoff contender and the toughest challenge the Broncos have in the first four weeks, particularly the offense going against the Steelers defense. But if the Broncos keep the game close, that will be a good sign, win or lose.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They're ranked 23rd overall in DVOA. I watched some of their game against the Saints and, yes, I think the Bucs have been greatly overrated by people who thought all they needed was "sign Tom Brady, trade for Rob Gronkowski, add water and stir."
The Bucs face the Panthers in Week Two, so they might look better than they looked against the Saints. After the Broncos in Week Three, they draw the Chargers in Week Four. I will say that, while you can't look past the Bucs in Week Three, I'm confident in saying that the Bucs aren't as scary as some Broncos may have thought.
New York Jets: They're ranked 28th in overall DVOA at -35.2 percent. They get the Niners and the Colts before facing the Broncos in Week Four.
It goes without saying that I believe the Jets will remain a bad football team, so if the Broncos can keep it close against the Steelers and beat the Bucs, there shouldn't be any excuse for them not to beat the Jets. A loss — especially a blowout loss like under Vance Joseph two years ago (and the Jets were bad back then) — means it will be time to question if Vic Fangio is the right head coach for the Broncos.
Broncos DYAR
The highlights for DYAR, which measures the overall value of players to a team, would be:
Drew Lock: He finished with 23 DYAR, putting him 22nd out of 32 quarterbacks. It's worth noting that the only Class of 2019 quarterback to finish ahead of Lock is Gardner Minshew, who had an impressive 97 DYAR.
But Lock finished ahead of Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Daniel Jones, with the main reason that Lock didn't turn over the ball and didn't take a sack, while the other three did both. We'll see if Lock can build on his Week One performance.
Melvin Gordon: He's ranked 11th out of 37 running backs with 16 DYAR. His fumble didn't affect his rushing DYAR because the fumble happened after a reception. For receiving, Gordon had minus-22 DYAR, and between the fumble and losing yards on another catch, that number shouldn't surprise you.
For those wondering about Phillip Lindsay, he didn't get enough carries before his injury to qualify for the main DYAR ranking.
Noah Fant: You probably figured out that DYAR loves Fant. He finished second overall with 39 DYAR and only Mark Andrews finished ahead of him.
It's worth noting Fant's former college teammate and fellow Class of 2019 draft mate T.J. Hockenson finished third in DYAR. Something tells me it's going to be fun to see both tight ends battle to show who's the best one from that 2019 draft.
Wide Receivers: There isn't as much to write home about here as no receiver finished with positive DYAR. Some of this may have to do with drops or not capitalizing on targets.
With the receivers, I think it's important to be patient as these younger receivers learn and grow. Also, it will help to get a healthy Courtland Sutton and KJ Hamler into the lineup.
Offensive Line: The Broncos are ranked 14th overall in run blocking and first overall in pass protection. Yes, I know — the latter may surprise you.
However, there's three things to keep in mind. First, it's just one week, and second, when you give up no sacks, you're going to be ranked high.
Third, Football Outsiders uses adjusted sack rate, which means it scores a percentage based on how often a team passes the ball in a game and adjusts for opponent and down and distance (for example, sacks are more common on third down, especially third and long).
Therefore, I wouldn't read too much into the Week 1 ranking for pass protection. Still, if the Broncos O-line can minimize the sacks Lock takes, the offense will be better for it.
What it Means for Broncos
It's still too early to say where the Broncos will rank in team efficiency for the season, but we do have an idea about where the Broncos have improved since last season and where more improvement is needed.
The next three weeks will give us a better picture of where the Broncos stand, given that they will face two teams that were pegged playoff contenders (with one team who looked like one while the other remains iffy) and one bad football team.
Throw in a team some pegged as a playoff contender to open the season (and that team looked iffy, if we're being honest) and we'll know for sure after Week Four whether the playoffs are in the Broncos' future this season.
Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.
