PFF's Bold Prediction on 2023 Broncos has NFL Buzzing

The Denver Broncos made headlines when Sean Payton was hired as head coach, sending a first-round pick to the New Orleans Saints, then spending big in free agency.

Even after a bad 2022 season, expectations have increased as the Broncos look to break a seven-season playoff drought. But while Broncos fans no doubt have playoffs on their minds, even after quarterback Russell Wilson's struggles and that of the whole team last season, it may not be as likely that fans would expect a deep playoff run in 2023.

However, Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson made waves this week, boldly predicting that the Broncos would reach the AFC Championship game in Payton’s first year as head coach.

Last season was a disaster for Denver. The Russell Wilson trade is in danger of being one of the single-worst roster moves in NFL history, and the head coach presiding over the debacle was fired before the season concluded. His replacement, Sean Payton, already cost the Broncos a first-round pick to hire and has been confident enough in his own analysis to publicly blowtorch Nathaniel Hackett. Payton has an incredible track record of success and an elite win rate without Drew Brees as his quarterback. If he pieces Wilson back together again, the Broncos still have a roster capable of making major noise, even in a loaded AFC.

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If the Broncos did reach the AFC title game in 2023, no doubt fans would be turning cartwheels. After all, the primary expectation is to break the playoff drought, particularly in a division with two teams coming off playoff trips and an AFC field that, overall, has at least 10 teams with playoff aspirations.

An AFC title game appearance for the Broncos wasn’t the only bold prediction Monson made. He made two other such forecasts, plus predictions for the Broncos’ three AFC West rivals.

Another prediction Monson made was that the Broncos would sign a veteran running back before the start of the regular season.

All of the reports surrounding Javonte Williams are positive so far, talking about a miraculous comeback and recovery. For him to be ready to go and effective in Week 1, given the severity of his knee injury, would be truly bordering on miraculous. But anything short of that would give Denver a real incentive to sign a veteran for cover in the meantime. Samaje Perine is a nice addition as a third-down back, but the team doesn’t have any proven Williams cover as the bell cow if he can’t hit the ground running from his recovery.

The Broncos have been linked to notable veterans, such as Dalvin Cook and Josh Jacobs. With the former, though, the New York Jets have gained more traction as the favorite to sign Cook, while the latter could only join the Broncos if the Las Vegas Raiders rescind his franchise tag (a trade is the other route, but it would be a shocker if the Raiders traded him to a division rival).

Still, running backs such as Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt are available, though with Hunt, there are no reports about a visit to the Broncos, even as he has visited with the Saints and is expected to visit the Indianapolis Colts.

The other bold prediction was rookie wideout Marvin Mims, Jr. leading the Broncos in receiving. Mims gives the Broncos a deep threat, and Monson compared him to one of Wilson's favorite targets in Seattle.

Jerry Jeudy is one of the best route-running separators in the NFL, but his biggest strength is the middle of the field — the area Russell Wilson has struggled to connect with the most. Courtland Sutton has been solid when healthy but has not rediscovered his play from 2019 or threatened to exceed that. Mims excelled in virtually every measure in college and has a skill set that could remind Wilson of Tyler Lockette in Seattle. Mims generated 2.7 yards per route run last season, and all six of his touchdowns came on deep strikes.

Mims becoming the Broncos leading receiver as a rookie would no doubt be a surprise. It’s not unusual for wide receivers to take a year to adjust to the NFL, particularly those taken in the later rounds. And while Ja’Marr Chase was a rookie who made an immediate impact, he was a first-round pick who joined former teammate Joe Burrow on the Cincinnati Bengals.

Still, perhaps Mims can make an impact as a rookie similar to DK Metcalf, another Seattle Seahawks receiver who played with Wilson. A 2019 second-round pick, Metcalf had 900 yards receiving and seven touchdowns in his first year in the NFL. Those numbers might be within Mims’ grasp.

We’ll get an early idea about just how high the ceiling is for the Broncos and individual players when the preseason opener at Arizona takes place on Friday.

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