Football Outsiders Reveals Just How Bad Broncos' Luck Was in 2022

The 2022 Denver Broncos dealt with exceedingly bad injury luck. With starters such as Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick, Garett Bolles, and Ronald Darby all suffering season-ending injuries and several other potential contributors missing games here and there last season, perhaps the Broncos’ 5-12 record was not completely indicative of the quality of the roster.

A recent study by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders concludes that not only did the Broncos suffer at the hands of the injury bug last season, but the team led the NFL in the site's “adjusted games lost" metric, which is a statistic that “measures injuries to starters and important situational players.”

Unfortunately for Denver, Schatz states that the injuries were only part of Denver’s downfall in 2022 — and don't totally account for Russell Wilson's terribly underwhelming season.

No, injuries do not explain the decline and fall of Russell Wilson, and they don’t mitigate the strange coaching decisions of Nathaniel Hackett. But a Denver team with average health might have finished the year 7-10 instead of 5-12. That’s a disappointing season but not a disaster.

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The Broncos weren’t the only team to deal with significant injuries last season. Still, Denver does seem to stand alone in terms of just how many quality players were injured, according to Schatz.

The Broncos finished with 148.6 AGL, which gives them a healthy lead over the rest of the league. Tennessee ranked second, and the Los Angeles Rams ranked third. However, the gap between the Broncos and Titans was larger than the gap between the Titans and the team that was ranked eighth, the Baltimore Ravens.

When stacking the actual list of players in the article, the list of Broncos who missed time in 2022 is rather stupefying:

Tim Patrick tore up his knee in training camp, and wide receiver is where the Broncos had the most AGL. KJ Hamler also missed half the season, while Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Kendall Hinton all missed games. On the offensive line, the Broncos went without left tackle Garett Bolles for two-thirds of the season and center Lloyd Cushenberry for half, while Quinn Meinerz missed four games and Dalton Risner fought injuries all over his body all season despite starting 15 games. On defense, the biggest problems came at defensive back, as Ronald Darby was gone after Week 5, Justin Simmons missed time in September and October, and K’Waun Williams was on the injury report with elbow and wrist issues all season.

Historically speaking, the year-to-year change in injury luck is random. A team with poor injury luck one season is often overly healthy the next. Trends indicate that a prior year’s rash of injuries does not overly influence the up-and-coming season. Just like the roll of the dice, the odds reset every time the die is cast.

Alas, the Broncos continuously roll snake eyes in the game of injury luck. According to FO, the Broncos have ranked in the bottom 10 for Adjusted Games Lost in each of the last four seasons.

No wonder the Broncos want to go in a different direction in the strength and conditioning department, parting ways with Loren Landow and hiring Dan Dalrymple under head coach Sean Payton.

Whether it was due to just plain bad luck over the last half-decade or something systematic wrong, the Broncos appear to actually have an excuse for their underwhelming performance in 2022 and in years prior: the team simply had a horrible time with injuries.

Will things turn around under Payton, or is there something in the water in Dove Valley? Time will tell.

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