Broncos vs. Raiders: Analyzing What Our Predictions Got Wrong

In Week 1, the Denver Broncos lost in a familiar fashion to the Las Vegas Raiders. With multiple issues in every phase, the Broncos lost 17-16.

While some areas did look better, there was still plenty of room for concern about this team. Sean Payton inherited a mess, and he's trying to fix it.

It was never going to be fixed in one offseason. Multiple areas looked better, but the Broncos still have a long way to go. One of the biggest concerns comes on the defensive side of the ball, which I will get into.

Leading up to the game, I highlighted the two most significant threats the Broncos faced and made five bold predictions. It's worth looking back at the loss because those players, or bold predictions and failing to achieve them, could help explain the loss.

The Biggest Threats

Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and defensive end Maxx Crosby were the two biggest threats Denver faced, one on offense and one on defense. Denver handled them well, and neither took over the game.

The issue is the Broncos allowed someone else to take over the game.

When you have players who have done as well as Jacobs and Crosby have against the Broncos over Vegas' now seven-game win streak, you have to slow them down. In doing so, you can't open yourself up for someone else to beat you.

Denver practically shut them down but allowed someone else to beat them.

Prediction 1: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, & Maxx Crosby Limited

Outcome: Prediction Achieved.

While the Broncos lost the game, they didn't allow the Raiders' three most prominent stars to dominate the game. The trio still helped contribute to the win, but not as it had in times past.

I predicted the Broncos would hold Jacobs under 100 total yards and under 75 yards rushing. They achieved that. He had 19 carries for 48 yards and two catches for 23 yards. The Broncos essentially shut him down and the Raiders' run game as a whole. The Broncos' run defense was excellent.

Crosby had a sack, one tackle for a loss, and two quarterback hits. My prediction had him at one sack and two or three tackles for a loss. Denver did better than the prediction.

The Broncos ran the ball well, even when going at Crosby. Then, with 34 pass attempts, limiting him to a sack and two QB hits was actually an improvement. He could've made life a lot more difficult for the Broncos.

Adams had 66 receiving yards, which fell within my prediction window of 50-75 yards. Patrick Surtain II didn't have the pick-six that I envisioned, but he made multiple big plays on one of the best receivers in the NFL. In fact, Adams was targeted five times with Surtain covering him, and he only caught two for 11 yards. Surtain got the pass breakup on the other three.

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Prediction 2: Broncos RBs Combine for 200-Plus Yards & a TD

Outcome: Failed.

While it wasn't a big day, the Broncos' run game did well despite the lower-than-expected run total. The Raiders are expected to have one of the NFL's worst run defenses, and the rushing game was the backburner of the offense despite being effective.

As a unit, the Broncos picked up 94 yards on 22 carries, a 4.3-yards-per-rush average that was good and effective. What helped was how tired the Broncos' bruising running backs made the Raiders.

Samaje Perine ran the ball eight times for 41 yards. That 5.1 average is quite good, so it's worth wondering why he didn't get a few more touches. The effectiveness was there; outside of one short run, he looked good out there.

Javonte Williams ran 13 times for 54 yards, making life hard for the Raiders defense. His vision was great, and he consistently found the open lane to gash the run defense.

The Raiders are weak against the run in the middle, and while they slowed the damage there, it came at the cost of cheating their run defense on the outside. After the Broncos went up 13-10, they ran it six times for 28 yards on a 10-play, 37-yard drive that ended in a missed field goal. The drive after that?

The Broncos ran twice out of six plays before punting. Denver got the ball back because of a penalty on the punt, and the team ran it twice more after that.

So the drive total was 16 plays for 60 yards (75 total, but the penalty picked up 15), with four runs for 24 yards. 12 passes went for 36 yards, with one completion to Perine going for 20 yards. That drive ended in a field goal, putting Denver up 16-10.

It's worth questioning why the Broncos didn't commit to the run more, especially with the issues they had in the passing game.

Prediction 3: TE Greg Dulcich Grabs 2 TDs

Outcome: Failed, injury.

Dulcich was a significant part of the passing game for the Broncos. He only had two catches for 22 yards but he was creating favorable matchups.

Then he exited the game with a lower leg injury, and the Broncos' offense began to falter, which makes it even more questionable why there wasn't a stronger commitment to the effective running game.

In the first half, when Dulcich was in the game, Russell Wilson went 18-of-19 for 122 yards and two touchdowns and ended the game 27-of-34 for 177 yards with two touchdowns.

Clearly, Dulcich was a critical part that was missing. That injury also hurt his ability to achieve this prediction.

Prediction 4: Two Interceptions, One Pick-Six

Outcome: Failed.

Kareem Jackson had one interception in the end zone, which the Broncos turned into a field goal with the help of a penalty on a punt. That was it. Denver struggled in coverage, and issues upfront didn't help anything.

Damarri Mathis was picked on all night. He had no answer for what the Raiders receivers were doing. Mathis has to step up, especially being opposite someone like Surtain.

Prediction 5: 7 Sacks on Jimmy Garoppolo

Outcome: Failed miserably.

Yeah, there was no pass rush. Denver picked up zero sacks and only landed three QB hits. I charted the Broncos with six total pressures, though they technically could have had one or two more.

The Broncos' lack of pass rush has been a concern since trading Bradley Chubb last year. Randy Gregory was the best out there, and Jonathon Cooper was alright. Frank Clark and Nik Bonitto were non-factors as pass rushers for the most part.

There was nothing from the defensive line. Zach Allen was brought in to replace Dre'Mont Jones, as Allen was a better run defender and was coming into his own as a pass rusher. He got next to no push on every single play, and D.J. Jones wasn't any better.

The Broncos need better execution up front. Garoppolo had way too much time to go through his reads, which threw the secondary under the bus.

It may not have mattered much with how quickly the Broncos' cornerbacks gave up separation. Even so, more pressure can lead to more mistakes, a higher potential for takeaways, or errant throws. Without it, a secondary will almost always struggle.

Hopefully, there will be better results from the Broncos next week.

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