Oddsmakers Make Surprising Prediction for RB Melvin Gordon's 2020 Rushing Yard Totals

The Denver Broncos wanted a running back who could perfectly fit new Offensive Coordinator Pat Shurmur's scheme. The team identified ex-Charger Melvin Gordon, paying him $16 million on a two-year deal.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver's back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing incumbent, checks many of the boxes NFL teams covet. But for all of Lindsay's strengths as a play-maker with the ball in his hand, he's not the weapon in the passing game that Gordon is.

Armed now with one of the top running back duos in the NFL, the question on the mind of most Broncos fans is how the division of labor will shake out in the backfield. Perhaps the oddsmakers can help answer that question and predict what the future holds.

DraftKings Sportsbook has Gordon's rushing yards in 2020 set at 775.5 yards. On the subject of Gordon's 2020 outlook, SI Gambling's Freddie Taddeo weighed in on what it would take for the sixth-year RB to meet that expectation and whether the over or under is the safer bet.

If Gordon is able to play all 16 games, he would only need to average 48.5 rushing yards per game to surpass this total. I am inclined to believe the powerful and speedy veteran will emerge as the back to own in this backfield, but his biggest value in 2020 will be in Point-Per-Reception (PPR) leagues. Gordon, with the right opportunity, could easily finish amongst the team leaders in catches with wideouts Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and emerging tight end Noah Fant.

The Play: OVER 775.5 rushing yards (-110)

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On the surface, averaging 49 rushing yards per game, if healthy, would seem to be a gimme. However, Lindsay is going to have something to say about Gordon getting the lion's share of the touches necessary to eclipse 775.5 yards on the ground.

Overlooked and underestimated his entire football career, Lindsay has the rare talent of upsetting the apple cart when it comes to the grand schemes his team has for the running back position. Since high school, no player has been able to keep Lindsay off the field.

In 2018, as an undrafted rookie, Lindsay crushed the Broncos' plan for third-round RB Royce Freeman to be the bell-cow, although in fairness, Lindsay didn't officially usurp Freeman's starting job until the injury bug saddled him with a nagging high-ankle sprain mid-season.

The language of the NFL is money. That's how teams communicate. Based on that reality, the Broncos are telegraphing their love for Gordon by virtue of the $13.5M guaranteed he's set to earn over the next two years and also their commitment to getting a return on their investment.

Gordon's going to see the field a lot. But he will split reps with Lindsay at some level, which makes it exceedingly difficult to project stats.

On paper, again, I'm inclined to agree with SI Gambling and take the over on 775.5 rushing yards for Gordon in 2020. But if Lindsay ends up doing his thing and takes control of the primary back role (even by a slim majority of touches), relegating Gordon to back-up duty, he'll almost certainly finish under.

According to Shurmur, each back will have his role heading into a matchup. But don't be surprised to see them on the field together at times in certain personnel groupings.

"No, they'll have specific roles," Shurmur said on Thursday via virtual presser. "There will be times they can be on the field together at the same time."

For what it's worth, Gordon has only eclipsed 775.5 rushing yards in a season three times during his five-year career. I'm surprised the oddsmakers set Gordon's 2020 over/under as high as they did. His career-high came in 2017 when he rushed for 1,107 yards.

That was Gordon's one and only 1,000-yard rushing campaign as a former No. 15 overall first-round pick. Meanwhile, Lindsay has eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier — as a former college free agent — in each of his two seasons in the NFL.

It's going to be fun to see how this competition and partnership between Gordon and Lindsay plays out and whether the Broncos' vision for their backfield ends up taking shape in just the way the team planned.

Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.