Payton Puts Finger on Broncos' Biggest Changes Since Win Streak Ended

After how well the Denver Broncos played during their five-game winning streak, which stretched from Week 7 to Week 12, fans are left to wonder what changed. The Broncos are 1-3 since Week 13, which, in tandem with their 1-5 start, has the team at 7-8 and all but eliminated from playoff contention.

The Broncos battled hard to get back into the playoff conversation, which makes their recent slide all the more tragic. When the 2023 campaign is viewed through the historical lens, perhaps the emphasis will be on how head coach Sean Payton led the Broncos to win 6-of-9 games after that horrendous start.

But with two games left to go in this season, the focus is still on the here and now. The question is, what were the Broncos doing well over that five-game span that they're not doing of late?

“We were protecting the ball better," head coach Sean Payton said on Tuesday via conference call. "It’s out all the time now, meaning it was out the other day. We’re lucky we only had two turnovers.”

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Payton is referencing the Broncos' frustrating 26-23 loss to the heretofore three-win New England Patriots on Christmas Eve, where Denver put the ball on the ground a whopping four times. Fortunately, the Broncos recovered two of them. But it was two lost fumbles too many.

Another marked difference over that five-game winning streak was the Broncos' torrential takeaway rate. Denver notched a historical 15 takeaways over that stretch, giving Wilson and company many extra possessions and short fields to boot.

It was an unbelievable streak. No Broncos fan had ever seen a defense that predatory, and it had been a long, long time since the NFL had either. Skeptics said it was unsustainable, and that turned out to be true.

In the four games since the streak officially ended? Denver has notched just three total takeaways, while the offense and special teams have given it away seven times. A -4 turnover differential is a metric emblematic of a football team going 1-3 over the corresponding span.

There is much more that's gone into why the Broncos have backslid over the past four weeks besides turnover differential, but I'd concur with Payton in listing it as the No. 1 cause of the regression. Wilson's inconsistencies from under center, the inability of any receiver not-named Courtland Sutton to make an impact, spotty O-line play, a defense that can't stop the run, piss-poor third-down and red-zone efficiency, and Payton's decision-making also make the list.

Honestly I think other than the DRASTIC shift in turnovers... this is exceedingly the same #Broncos team

Weeks 7-11
Takeaways: 16
Takeaways per Game: 3.2
Cumulative Turnover Margin: +13

Weeks 12-16
Takeaways: 3
Takeaways per Game: 0.75
Cumulative Turnover Margin: -4 https://t.co/1L7CTFrY4U
— Nick Kendell 🏔 (@NickKendellMHH) December 26, 2023

When Denver's takeaway streak regressed back to the mean, and that corresponded with the offense's third-down efficiency plummeting while opponents were allowed to move the ball and score at will (at times), it created a perfect storm of disaster. The Broncos have converted a pathetic 31.4% of their third-down tries since Week 13, which is bad in and of itself, but it's more indicative of the offense's inability to be productive on first and second down.

Payton's dogged determination to stick to his three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust rushing model was viable when the Broncos were getting handed one short-field possession after another. But when the takeaways dried up, and the Broncos failed to make teams pay for stacking the box, it resulted in the offense being smothered, and ultimately, snuffed out.

Despite Payton's reputation for being an offensive innovator, he has failed to devise and implement a counterpunch to how opponents played the Broncos defensively —Wilson's off-script moon-balls don't count. Some of that is on the quarterback. Some of that is on the Broncos' skill-position players not answering the bell.

But the buck stops with Payton, not just because he's the offensive play-caller, but especially because he's the head coach. Frustratingly, most of the wounds the Broncos currently suffer from are of the self-inflicted variety, which only makes the tragedy sting more, and doesn't reflect well on the coaching staff.

So, where do the Broncos go from here? How does Payton approach these final two games with not much left to play for but pride? Suffice it to say, the word 'playoffs' won't be in the discussion when the players return to the office on Wednesday.

“The way it’s covered, I don’t think I have to discuss it," Payton said of the media's scrutiny of the playoffs. "When these guys come in here tomorrow morning, the message is going to be about winning this game—our last home game. We haven’t played well at home, or at least to the expectations certainly from Broncos fans and then from my experience of playing at home. This is our last opportunity to play a home game, and it’s going to be about getting this win. It’s going to be that short-sighted, if you will. The next seven days, and then kind of go from there.”

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