Will the Buccaneers Look to Replace Antonio Brown via the NFL Draft?
This story has been updated to include a receiving yards statistic for Ole Miss wide receiver Elijah Moore, which was omitted at publishing.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have retained all of their starters and meaningful contributors that were scheduled to hit free agency this offseason, except one: Wide receiver Antonio Brown.
Brown signed with the Buccaneers halfway through the 2020 season and enjoyed a productive half-season and Super Bowl run. In 11 games total, Brown caught 51 passes for 564 yards and six touchdowns, earning a $250,000 contract incentive in Week 17 for regular-season receptions thanks to the help of quarterback and friend Tom Brady.
Now that Brown's career has been revived, after his falling out with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Oakland Raiders in 2018-19, he's testing the waters of free agency. Nearly two weeks removed from the beginning of the new league year, Brown has yet to re-sign with the Bucs or find a home elsewhere.
Perhaps, the Buccaneers will eventually bring Brown back on an affordable deal. They're currently $3.84 million over the 2021 salary cap, according to Over the Cap, as running back Leonard Fournette's one-year deal has hit the books.
For a while, as Fournette remained unsigned, analysts speculated whether or not the Bucs would select a running back with a high pick - maybe even in the first round. Whether or not Fournette returned, projected starter Ronald Jones II is set to be a free agent in 2022, so the Buccaneers could have afforded to select an all-around back with a top selection to play on passing downs as a rookie before starting in year two.
The same logic can be applied to the No. 3/flex-slot wide receiver position. Brown is currently outside of the team's plans in 2021, at least until he signs the dotted line. Scotty Miller has made several big-time plays for Tampa Bay but has yet to eclipse over 41% of the team's offensive snaps per season in his two-year career. Brown was on the field for 30% of the Bucs offensive snaps a year ago, in half the games.
The Buccaneers could choose to replace Brown via the NFL Draft instead of adding more stress to the cap situation. They have plenty of options, as the wide receiver class is extremely strong for the second year in a row.
Chris Godwin is more than capable of manning the slot, and will be around for at least one more year on the franchise tag (and probably more - the Bucs want to keep him long-term). However, Brown or any receiver that replaces him will have to be able to flex inside and out. In Bruce Arians' traditionally vertical offense, such a receiver will need to pose some sort of deep threat, but is a candidate for manufactured touches such as screens, reverses, jet sweeps, and quick RPO targets.
Florida's Kadarius Toney is an extremely intriguing option should he be available to the Buccaneers at the No. 32 pick. Although the vast majority of his snaps were in the slot, he occasionally flexed out-wide and was frequently utilized on pre-snap motions both to get the ball in his hands and diagnose coverages. A former high school quarterback, Toney threw a couple of passes in a UF uniform, took snaps as a Wildcat quarterback, and received some handoffs too.
Toney is one of the most unique receiving prospects, well, ever, due to his contact balance, natural ability to bend, and evade tacklers. Those skills translated to his receiving game in 2020 which led to his most productive season as a pass-catcher, by far. He can continue to develop as an all-around route runner but is stunning to watch separate on underneath routes. From there, he's a yards-after-contact machine.
Tampa Bay may be better suited to take a defensive lineman or edge rusher in the first round given future team needs and to improve the depth up front, but Toney would make sense at No. 32 if he were to fall that far.
Elijah Moore from Ole Miss is another prospect that has spent a lot of time in the slot throughout his college career, but expanded his role significantly in Lane Kiffin's offense this past season with 108 snaps out wide. Moore was dominant in his junior season and was one of if not the fastest receiver to reach 1,000 receiving yards in college football this past season, hitting that mark in seven games.
Although he's a smaller-framed receiver at 5-9.5, Moore won 11-of-15 contested catch battles in 2020 according to Pro Football Focus. He posted a burning 4.35-second 40-yard dash at Ole Miss's pro day with impressive change-of-direction and explosion scores as well.
Moore is a big-play threat with the speed to stretch the field in the Buccaneers' offense. He, too, would flex into the backfield and motion on certain plays to get the ball into his hands behind and around the line of scrimmage before letting his speed and elusiveness go to work. Moore has widely been regarded as a day two, likely round two prospect but could ascend into the first round discussion after his pro day.
If not that early, the Bucs could still fill Brown's role on day two or even into day three. Tylan Wallace of Oklahoma State is an explosive receiver who has outside-and-in flexibility in that order and a knack for making big-time catches. He could be a bargain-buy candidate if Tampa Bay covets a receiver early on but not in the first round. Wallace had an average target depth of 14.8 yards with the Cowboys in 2020, per PFF, even though he posted a career-low of 15.6 yards per catch - he's certainly capable of taking on an intermediate-to-deep role in the offense.
Other options include Purdue's Rondale Moore, North Carolina's Dazz Newsome, Western Michigan's D'Wayne Eskridge, Clemson's Amari Rodgers, Southern California's Amon-Ra St. Brown, Auburn's Anthony Schwartz, and so on. It's a really deep receiver class.
Ideally, the receiver of choice will be able to play outside-then-in based on Brown and Miller's snap shares out wide and in the slot, but Godwin is also a proven outside receiver and could increase his outside workload to benefit the rookie. We also believe that this receiver should offer special teams value, particularly as a returner. Brown has an exceptional history returning punts although those skills weren't used with the Bucs in 2020 beyond one rep.
Each of the receivers above have either played in the slot, inside-and-out, and/or have contributed meaningfully on special teams for their programs. If the Bucs elect to not meet Brown's contract demands, these are just a couple of options for Tampa Bay in the upcoming draft.
