Buccaneers' Bruce Arians at No. 17 on EdjSports Coach of the Year Rankings
Not to be confused with the traditional NFL Honors which will name the league's Coach of the Year among other awards, EdjSports has unveiled its Coach of the Year award and rankings for the 2021 season. For those unfamiliar, the award and rankings are based on advanced metrics that evaluate coaching decisions, balancing fourth-down calls and team power rankings as a whole.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians landed in the middle of the pack, ranking No. 17 overall, at No. 30 in the CCI (offensive play-calling, specifically analyzed on critical downs) category and No. 6 in the EPI (EdjSports power index) grouping.
You can find definitions for both CCI and EPI below.
Offensive Play Calling (CCI) Ranking
This ranking is based on an analysis of offensive play calling on 4th downs and compares teams in terms of GWC (game-winning chance) lost or gained, on a normalized basis so that all teams are given the same test. Additionally, the CCI rankings are adjusted to account for the frequency and situational nature of critical calls to allow for fair comparisons of all 32 teams.
Edj Power Indexes (EPI) Ranking
This is a cumulative ranking of the Edj Power Indexes (EPIs) including Offensive Pass, Offensive Rush, Defensive Pass and Defensive Rush. This ranking is a reflection of how teams performed in every situation during the season.
The Bucs finished the year ranked No. 14 in the NFL in fourth-down conversion percentage at 56.3 percent, per StatMuse, but didn't take advantage of their offense converting on fourth down at a positive yet near-league average pace, ranking No. 30 in the league in fourth-down attempts (16). Consider that teams across the league kept their offenses on the field at a historical rate, and it becomes easy to understand why Arians' CCI is near the bottom of the league.
Yet, it's hard to deny Arians' ranking in the EPI ranking, as the Buccaneers owned one of the NFL's strongest rosters in 2021 even while dealing with a slew of injuries.
Across the four subcategories in EPI — Offensive Pass, Offensive Rush, Defensive Pass and Defensive Rush — Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in passing offense at 307.6 yards per game (the next closest team, the Dallas Cowboys, finished 25.2 yards behind), No. 26 in rushing offense (98.4 YPG), No. 21 in passing defense (238.9 YPG allowed) and No. 3 in rushing defense (92.5 YPGA). Tom Brady and the Bucs' passing offense pushed Arians' EPI ranking significantly upward.
EdjSports' 2021 NFL Coach of the Year is Green Bay's Matt LaFleur, who finished at No. 8 in CCI and No. 3 in EPI.
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