Buccaneers to Face Stiffest Defensive Challenge of the Year vs. Saints
If you look at the list of opponents the Bucs have faced so far, you'd probably agree there hasn't been much of a challenge in terms of opposing defenses. Sure, Dallas, LA, and Chicago are currently in the top-10 of overall defensive DVOA, but Dallas' defense was not playing this well back in Week 1 and Chicago's defense was a shell of itself without Akiem Hicks, Robert Quinn, and a banged-up Khalil Mack. The Rams are really the only tough defense the Bucs have played so far.
Argument aside, I think it's safe to say the theory of playing innocuous defenses most weeks ends this Sunday when the Bucs play the Saints in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
"This is by far the best 11 that we've faced this year," Bruce Arians told reporters earlier in the week. "The front seven – Demario Davis is one of the best there is, the same with Cam Jordan. So, this is a big physical defense with a great secondary. Yeah, the defense stands out."
"The Rams are a really good defense, but the Saints are a better 11."
The key to New Orleans' defensive success is defensive coordinator Dennis Allen's scheme. He's always mixing up coverages in the back end, using multiple fronts, and sending linebackers and corners/safeties on blitzes so you never really know where the pressure is coming from. It's a very effective scheme that's kept New Orleans' defense in the top-8 of defensive DVOA since 2017 (includes this year, too).
"They have a lot of guys who can do different things, certainly guys that can win with speed, certainly a lot of guys that can win with power, guys that win with effort," Tom Brady said Thursday. "It's a collective group. The linebackers blitz a lot, the safeties can blitz. They tried a corner blitz on us last year. So, they have a good scheme that kind of always keeps you guessing. Anytime you have a team like that, we've got to make sure we're communicating about what we see and how we're going to deal with it, understanding they do a good job at what they do."
Allen's defenses have given Arians' offenses trouble over the last couple of years. Arians' units had yet to score over 24 points and averaged 16.8 points per game in the four contests before the Bucs beat the Saints in the playoffs last year. But Tampa had to fight for every yard and every point in that game: The Bucs offense averaged just 4.6 yards per play after averaging 6.0 yards per play during the regular season.
It's never easy figuring out how to overcome a team that appears to have your number, but there is one route the Bucs know to take that will not only help the offense score more points, but it will also keep the Saints defense from impacting the game as much.
The Saints defense has given the Bucs offense fits over the last few years.
"Turnovers," Arians said confidently when asked what the deciding factor was among last year's games. "When you look at our two games, we turned it over, they scored. In the playoff game, they turned it over, we scored. When two good teams are battling, that's usually the deciding factor."
"Easiest thing to point out are turnovers, but it’s a team we play twice a year – last year three times. A team we’re really familiar with," said Cameron Brate. "Obviously, we had our struggles with them over the years and were kind of able to rectify that last year during the playoffs, but it’s a new season. Watching them on tape still – great defense and they have great players all over the field."
The Bucs gave the ball away seven times during the regular-season meetings in 2020, but avoided all turnovers while taking the ball away four times in the playoffs.
The good news for the Bucs is they have Brady at quarterback, who doesn't turn the ball over often. He's been even better than normal this year, evidenced by his turnover-worthy play rate of 0.3%, which is easily the best rate of any current starting quarterback, per Pro Football Focus. Russell Wilson leads the league with a perfect 0.0% rate, but is currently on injured reserve.
But whether it's offense vs. defense or vice-versa, the Bucs have to come out and play a clean game. As long as they do that, then they will have the edge over any team they face, no matter how good said team is.
"It's going to be a tough game," said Brady. "They're one of the best football teams in the NFL, so we're going to have to go out there and play really great, top to bottom."
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