Buccaneers vs. Bills: Week 14 Game Preview

Who's ready for a big-time matchup this weekend?

The Buccaneers (9-3) have yet to reach the 2021 postseason, but it's safe to say that their Week 14 matchup with the Bills (7-5) has playoff vibes written all over it. 

Both teams come into this game looking to make a statement. They're also looking to keep making their respective pushes toward the postseason. In all, there's a lot on the line this weekend, which always makes for a good football game.

Overview

• All-time series: The Bucs lead the all-time series, 7-4.
• Longest win streak: Tampa Bay won four games in a row from 1978-1988.
• Largest margin of victory: The Bucs beat the Bills, 27-6, back in 2013. 
• 2021 offensive and defensive rankings: The Bucs average the second-most yards per game on offense (1st pass, 25th run) and the 10th-ranked defense (20th pass, t-1st run). Tampa Bay averages 31.4 points per game on offense (1st) and has allowed 22.5 points per game on defense (t-16th). The Bills currently own the NFL's ninth-ranked offense (8th pass, 14th run) and the No. 1 defense (1st pass, 12th run). They average 28.0 points per game (t-5th) on offense, while allowing 16.3 points per game on defense (1st).

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and the Bucs defense have a tough challenge ahead of them in Josh Allen and the Bills offense.

Photo Credit: John A. Babiak/@Photog_JohnB

What To Watch For

• How the Bills replace Tre'Davious White and how they defend the Bucs receivers: We don't really know anything about Dane Jackson considering the circumstances surrounding last week's Monday night matchup and honestly, we don't know how the Bills plan on utilizing their secondary coming into this game. Levi Wallace play mostly on the defensive left before White went down, but moved over to White's position on the defensive right against the Patriots, while Dane Jackson took over on the defensive left. If that's what happens this week, then Wallace will be mostly on Mike Evans and then Jackson will handle Chris Godwin/Tyler Johnson/Scotty Miller and Evans when they are on the offensive right. There could be some advantages for the Bucs, here, but the key is Buffalo's safeties: They are good enough in coverage to where they can help make up for the loss of White.
• Chris Godwin vs. Taron Johnson: This matchup should be one of the premier matchups of the game. Godwin is one of the top slot receivers in the NFL and Johnson has been lights out this year. Per Pro Football Focus, Johnson has allowed 50+ receiving yards in a game just once this year and that was all the way back in Week 5, where he allowed a season-high 53 yards to be completed in coverage. Per Sports Info Solutions, Godwin has the second-highest positive play percentage, averages the fourth-most yards per game, the fourth-most touchdowns, and the 12th-highest yards per route run. This matchup is bound to go for all four quarters and will have huge implications on how the game plays out.
• Josh Allen's legs: The Bills may have an OK run game when it comes to stats on paper, but you don't have to dive too deep to figure out that Allen's mobility is a big factor. He's second on the team with 422 rushing yards, which makes up 30% of the team's rushing totals. His 75 carries are third-most among quarterbacks, behind only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Per SIS, the Bills are third when it comes to designed quarterback runs, so the Bills will certainly incorporate Allen's legs into the game plan against the Bucs. This factor is key because if Allen gets going in terms of the run game, it opens up the entire Bills offense and the Bucs defense is going to have a very long day if that happens.
• Can both teams stay disciplined: Usually, the most disciplined team wins the game when two good teams that are evenly matched face off. Both the Bills and the Bucs have had issues with penalties this year. The Bucs are currently 14th in penalties per game, but was one of the league's most-penalized teams for a good chunk of the year. The Bills are currently have the seventh-most penalties per game. Both teams have shown recent improvement, however. The Bucs have been hit with seven total penalties for a combined 59 yards in their last two games while the Bills have been hit with seven total penalties for 55 yards over their last two games. Hopefully the trend continues, because this game will be very, very entertaining if both teams are playing clean.
• Don't fall into the Patriots trap: Yes, the Pats destroyed Buffalo on the ground in their most recent matchup, but the Bucs don't need to come into this game thinking they have to run the ball 30+ times on the day. Their strength continues to be in the passing game and the Bills secondary -while they still have a lot of good players- is certainly going to take a step back without White. I'm not saying the Bucs need to come out with 13 straight passes, but they certainly need to remember how they make their hay and not try to get cute with things.

Impact Players

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• QB Tom Brady: Brady picked it up last week against the Falcons after a four-game stretch that didn't feature his typical play. The Bucs will need him to keep that up against the Bills. 
• RB Leonard Fournette: New England showed on Monday night that the Bills can be manipulated on defense in terms of their run defense, so the Bucs will likely involve Lenny a ton in this game. 
• WR Mike Evans: Godwin has a tough matchup in Johnson, so it may be up to Evans -who will see a combo of Johnson, Wallace, and Jackson- to carry the Bucs receivers and the passing game.
• DL Vita Vea: Collapsing the pocket from the interior is key to throwing off Allen and that all starts with Vea. 
• LB Devin White: I don't know if the Bucs plan to spy Allen at all in this game, but White will be integral if they do and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be big when Allen does escape the pocket.
• CB Sean Murphy-Bunting: Carlton Davis III has his own matchup in Stefon Diggs, but SMB also has a big challenge in Cole Beasley. He'll also have to matchup with Diggs from time-to-time on the outside, SMB's play is crucial this week. 

Buffalo Bills

• QB Josh Allen: While he hasn't had the MVP-caliber year most thought he'd have, Allen is still one of the league's most dynamic quarterbacks and will certainly make some plays in this game.
• TE Dawson Knox: The Bucs are not good when it comes to defending tight ends and Knox has carved out a big role in the Bills offense. 
• WR Stefon Diggs: Tampa Bay can't let Diggs get going. It's that simple. 
• DL Ed Oliver: The Bills have a good defensive line, but Oliver's ability to thwart the interior of an opposing offensive line is something that will give the Bucs offense trouble if he's able to make it happen.
• LB Matt Milano: Milano is one of the league's more underrated linebackers and is good in both run defense and coverage. He'll be crucial in stopping the Bucs' underneath passing game.
• CB Dane Jackson: How will Jackson perform in place of White, who is an All-Pro? We'll find out this week.

Cool Stats

• The Buccaneers are 19-0 over the past two seasons when scoring 30+ points, including postseason. Their 19 games with 30+ points are the most in the NFL since 2020.
• Since returning from injury in Week 11, Rob Gronkowski leads all NFL tight ends with 252 receiving yards and ranks tied for second among tight ends with two receiving touchdowns.
• In Week 13 at Atlanta, Godwin set a single-game franchise record with 15 receptions, while surpassing Mark Carrier for the third-most receptions in team history and tying Carrier for the second-most 100-yard games in Tampa Bay history.
• Tom Brady needs two touchdown passes to become the first player in NFL history with 700 passing touchdowns (regular season + postseason combined).
• Brady needs 18 completions to surpass Drew Brees (7,142) for the most pass completions in NFL history.

*Stats provided by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Communications Department

Dawson Knox could give the Bucs trouble on Sunday.

Game Outlook

Two of the NFL's top teams throwing down in December? In Raymond James Stadium?

Yea, this will be a fun one. 

Both teams have high-flying offenses and physical defenses that know how to create big plays, so expect a ton of highlights from both sides as the Bucs try to strengthen their current playoff positioning and the Bills try to maintain theirs while bouncing back from a tough division loss against the Patriots. 

Each team matches up with the other pretty well. The biggest difference between the two teams lies at the quarterback position. Brady is the prototypical pocket passer, while Allen is the new-age, mobile quarterback that can also kill you through the air. 

As mentioned earlier, whichever team makes the least amount of mistakes will win this game, but items such as red zone execution and third down offense/defense will go a long way, as well. Is it a surprise that both teams also rank highly on both sides of the ball in those categories? It shouldn't be. At all.

But when it's all said and done, an electric Raymond James Stadium will prove to be the difference as Brady and the Bucs continue to roll in December. Expect Tampa Bay to win this game and head into next week's matchup with the Saints with its eye on an NFC South title (if they don't capture it this week). 

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