Three Ways the 3rd Matchup between Saints and Buccaneers Could be Different
The New Orleans Saints and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers met twice in the regular season and twice the Bucs got the short end of the stick.
The teams meet a third time Sunday in the NFC Divisional Round and the winner will face the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship next week, following the Packers' 32-18 win over the Los Angeles Rams on Saturday.
In the season-opener, the Saints won 34-23 and eight weeks later, New Orleans never took its foot off the peddle. In the Week 9 matchup, the Saints handed the Bucs their worst loss of the season, 38-3 at home. In both games, quarterback Tom Brady threw multiple interceptions, while Drew Brees tossed multiple touchdowns.
Throughout this week, however, Bucs' head coach Bruce Arians has explained that his team has improved greatly throughout the course of the season.
“We just got better and better," Arians said this week about the Bucs. "I just think it was a matter of continually work in progress. I think back to the second half of the Kansas City game – I think if we had gotten the ball back, we might’ve had a chance to win that one. Things were growing each and every week, and then after the Bye [Week], everything kind of solidified itself.”
With that in mind, let's take a look at three ways the third matchup between the Saints and the Buccaneers could be different in the NFC Divisional Round on Sunday:
1. Tampa Bay Could Have Success Running the Ball
The first time these teams met, Ronald Jones II carried the ball 17 times for 66 yards, which is a solid performance, but obviously nothing special. The second time, however, was a completely different story.
The Bucs finished with eight total rushing yards on five carries. Jones actually picked up nine yards, but a negative rush by backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert brought the total yardage by one. The five rushing attempts were the least ever attempted in a single game in NFL history. The eight rushing yards were the fewest recorded by a team since the 2017 season and is tied for the 23rd lowest in a single game in the Super Bowl era.
Now, of course, the reason the Bucs ran the ball so little was because of how early the team fell behind. In that game, Brady threw the ball 38 times as Tampa Bay trailed 31-0 at halftime. No team in that situation will run the ball.
Since then, the Bucs have used the run game to help set up the play-action and both Jones and Leonard Fournette have had solid games. In Week 10, Jones ran for nearly 200 yards on 23 carries. Last week in the Wild Card Round, Fournette rushed for 93 yards on 19 carries and scored one touchdown against the Washington Football Team.
Whether it's Jones or Fournette carrying the ball for Tampa Bay on Sunday against the Saints, the running back room can't perform much worse than the first two games... Right? The Bucs can only hope so.
2. Tom Brady Could Avoid Throwing Multiple Interceptions
Brady has thrown a combined five interceptions in the two games this season vs. the Saints. That's nearly half of his season total of 12.
When Brady throws interceptions, the Bucs clearly struggle. Brady threw two interceptions in back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs, both 27-24 losses to playoff teams.
However, in the past five games, he's only thrown one interception compared to 14 touchdown passes. Brady has thrown for at least 340 yards or more in each of the past five games, nearly reaching 400 passing yards twice.
Brady understands the importance of avoiding turnovers, especially against the Saints who scored a touchdown on the following possession four of the five times New Orleans picked off Brady this season.
"That’s a big point of emphasis – we’ve got to protect it in the passing game," Brady said this week "That responsibility obviously falls on the quarterback, but it falls on a lot of other people too. It falls on all of us making a concerted effort to be on the same page in the passing game so that we can play with anticipation [and] play with confidence. There [are] a lot of things that go into that."
If Brady can be more accurate and take care of the football, the Bucs could be able to put together solid drives and get more points on the board vs. the Saints.
3. Tampa Bay Could Begin with a Fast Start on Sunday
For the majority of the season, Tampa Bay struggled to get off on the right foot. The Bucs didn't score a touchdown in the first quarter from Week 11 to Week 15.
In nine games, from Week 6 to Week 16, the Bucs only combined to score 17 points in the first quarters of those games. Tampa Bay was shut out in the first half in the second game vs. the Saints as well.
Arians said at the time it was just "little things," like missing a tackle on third down or not completing short passes on first and second setting up third and long situations. Whatever the problem was, the Bucs have since fixed it as of late.
Tampa Bay has scored 32 points in total in the first quarters of the past three games, while the team's defense has shut out opponents in those quarters. Brady has thrown four touchdowns in the first quarter of the last three games and we've seen the Bucs start games really fast.
Jumping out to a fast start and scoring on the first handful of possessions could change the game for Tampa Bay against the Saints.
