Buccaneers vs. Saints: Picks, Predictions and Takes
It's rivalry week: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are off to New Orleans to take on the New Orleans Saints for their first of two matchups this year.
However, it's a new-looking rivalry with a twist, as Drew Brees is no longer around to beat the Bucs up through the air. Instead, the Saints are led by former Tampa Bay quarterback and first overall pick, Jameis Winston. And although he doesn't match Brees' efficiency, Winston has been getting the job done as New Orleans' signal-caller, which makes this game even more intriguing.
The Buccaneers are considered 4.5-point road favorites over the Saints, according to SI Sportsbook. The over/under has been set at 48.5 points.
Zach Goodall (7-0): Buccaneers 27, Saints 17
This is not Drew Brees' New Orleans Saints anymore. I'm not sure that the Saints could confidently put the ball in Jameis Winston's hands and tell him to go win the football game as they could, and did routinely, with Brees.
Winston has been productive for the Saints and has seemingly turned his career around after his departure from Tampa Bay, there's no doubt. But considering the matchup between running back Alvin Kamara and the Buccaneers' league-best run defense leans in the Bucs favor (Kamara has played well this year but is averaging a mere 3.7 yards per carry), the Saints are going to have to trust Winston to win them the game as Tom Brady and the Bucs are sure to put points on the board.
Speaking of Brady, coming off of what I considered his least accurate game of the year against Chicago, I'm expecting a bounce-back game against a lackluster Saints passing defense - and it's tough to call it a bounce-back as he completed four touchdown passes versus the Bears. However, I envision Brady topping 300 passing yards this week with three touchdowns, zero interceptions and a completion percentage above 65%. As a result, Leonard Fournette and the Bucs' running backs may see their action limited to the passing game.
Jason Beede (7-0): Buccaneers 27, Saints 20
The Bucs are 4.5-point favorites on the road but I have them winning by a touchdown on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.
Simply put, Tom Brady and Co. will overpower a Saints defense that allows 265 yards a game through the air. Although New Orleans can stop the run about as good as Tampa Bay can, I have a feeling Brady will lean on receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on Sunday, especially because Antonio Brown has been ruled out.
If the Bucs can limit Alvin Kamara and force Jameis Winston to make a few mistakes on Sunday, Tampa Bay's offense should be able to put up enough points to find a way to win.
Meanwhile, watch out for tight end Rob Gronkowski to catch at least one touchdown if he's able to play in New Orleans this week. He's questionable for now, but I've got a good feeling he'll find a way to play in a big NFC South matchup.
Evan Winter (6-1): Buccaneers 26, Saints 20
Everything in my gut is telling me to go with the Saints, but I can't tell if that's because I still don't trust this Bucs coaching staff against the Saints staff or if it's because the Saints have a slight edge being at home. Either way, deciding who wins this game is not an easy thing to do, obviously.
The Saints still appear to be a bad matchup on defense, even though the Bucs won in the playoffs. Tampa Bay's offense averaged 6.0 yards per play during the 2020 regular season, but averaged just 4.6 against the Saints in the Divisional Round. The Bucs defense is what carried the team, for the most part. And right now, I don't think the defense is playing up to the level it was then.
The good news is that Drew Brees is no longer quarterback and Jameis Winston is. Winston has been good this year, but he's no Brees. The Saints will try and run their offense through Alvin Kamara, which is what they've done all year. But what happens if the Bucs shut him down? Will Winston be able to win the game using his arm?
He may not have to. This Saints defense is still a really good and is keeping New Orleans in just about every game. Add in the Superdome on Halloween and you can see why it's easy to feel uneasy about the Bucs coming out with a win in the Big Easy.
But I think the Bucs sneak one on out and in the end, it will be the Bucs defense rising to the occasion, again. They'll come away with at least three turnovers and two sacks en route to the team's seventh win of the year.
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