PFF Ranks, Evaluates Potential Contracts for Buccaneers Free Agents
In addition to replacing quarterback Tom Brady — which is far easier said than done — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face the possibility of their roster being gutted this offseason, as 26 players are set to become free agents in March if they do not earn new contracts from the club before the new league year.
And, according to Pro Football Focus, eight Buccaneers are among the top 100 imminent free agents across the league, suggesting that retaining each one — as the Buccaneers are low on cap space with just over $3 million available currently, per Over the Cap — will be no easy feat.
PFF shares its analysis of the Buccaneers' top 100 free agents and their contract projections for the upcoming offseason, which you can find below, as well as AllBucs' own analysis of each impending free agent.
3. WR Chris Godwin
Contract Projection: Four years, $70 million ($17.5M per year, $36.5 million total guaranteed)
Analysis: Godwin is an intriguing receiver who has shown the ability to dominate at times and had huge success in a variety of roles but may lack elite ability against good press-man coverage. He is the perfect complementary receiver to an offense that already has that star X-receiver, or he could be an elite starter in an offense that splits the receiver roles more evenly, but may not have the ceiling as an elite split end.
Godwin missed the final three games of the 2021 season and the playoffs while recovering from a torn ACL. In the past, knee injuries such as Godwin's made a substantial impact on free agent contracts, but that is no longer usually the case as rehabilitation has come a long way. Whether it be in Tampa Bay or elsewhere, expect Godwin to cash in regardless of his wound, as he is a proven No. 1-caliber receiver who will help any quarterback he plays with. He already played on the franchise tag in 2021, meaning he's looking for a long-term deal this time around.
12. C Ryan Jensen
Contract Projection: Three years, $30 million ($10M per year, $15 million total guaranteed)
Analysis: Jensen became a fan favorite in Baltimore and Tampa Bay because of his attitude and well-rounded game that can be plugged into most NFL offenses. The biggest concern for potential suitors would be that he's now on the other side of 30 at a position that takes a beating in the trenches, especially given the way that he plays it.
Jensen's contract situation is an interesting one for Tampa Bay. He's one of the Bucs' best starting linemen and gives the front five life with his intense play, but Jensen will turn 31 this offseason and the team drafted his successor a year ago in Robert Hainsey, who earned some playing time throughout his rookie season. We could see the Bucs allowing Jensen to walk to save cap space for other contracts as such, although losing Jensen would surely sting for Tampa Bay's offensive line.
16. CB Carlton Davis III
Contract Projection: Franchise tag
Analysis: Carlton Davis is one of very few good, young cornerbacks set to hit the free agent market and among an even shorter list of cornerbacks with the ability to play man coverage and battle head-to-head with an opposing team's No. 1 wide receiver. This more rare skill set always has a higher earning potential on the open market, but a franchise tag here for around $17 million-$17.5 million might be the most likely outcome.
Tampa Bay went the franchise tag route with wide receiver Chris Godwin this past offseason, and they may elect to go that route once more as Davis has missed some time to injury just like Godwin did in 2020.
Davis stands alongside Godwin as the Buccaneers' most important free agents to prioritize this offseason, in the opinion of AllBucs. He is a legitimate No. 1 cornerback while the remainder of Tampa Bay's corners are serviceable starters but not as accomplished or dominant in man coverage. Davis is certainly a franchise tag candidate, and such a salary would probably be a bargain compared to what he'd earn in free agency.
35. TE Rob Gronkowski
Contract Projection: One year, $7 million fully guaranteed
Analysis: Even at the tail end of his career, Gronkowski is a pass-game weapon who can add value as a run blocker. The one limitation for the other 31 teams is if he's only tied to Tom Brady and uninterested in other offers.
The consensus opinion is that Gronkowski is a candidate to retire this offseason, as he did three years ago before exiting retirement only to reunite with Tom Brady, who hung up his cleats for good at the beginning of February. Gronkowski has yet to reach a decision either way, though, and Tampa Bay would love to bring Gronk back. He's been immensely productive for a tight end of his age, both as a blocker and receiver.
69. RB Leonard Fournette
Contract Projection: Two years, $16 million ($8M per year, $11M total guaranteed)
Analysis: Fournette has recuperated some of the value that he lost in Jacksonville with his play down the stretch in Tampa Bay's Super Bowl run last year and as their lead back this season. He's not going to shake too many people in the open field, but Fournette has been an effective runner in addition to earning Tom Brady's trust as a receiving outlet in 2021.
One of three Buccaneers running backs on expiring deals, it wouldn't be surprising to see Tampa Bay prioritize retaining Fournette while letting Ronald Jones II and Giovani Bernard walk this offseason. That being said, Fournette is entering the sixth season of his career and hasn't topped 1,000 yards rushing since 2019, so the Bucs would be wise not to overpay him, especially at a position that is generally fairly easy to replace in the NFL Draft. Fournette does deserve credit for his improvement as a third-down back, though, which should boost his value.
70. S Jordan Whitehead
Contract Projection: Three years, $18 million ($6M per year, $11.5 million guaranteed)
Analysis: Whitehead played in Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl victory last year with a torn labrum, demonstrating how tough a player he is, which is exactly what you need at the strong safety position. His 5-foot-11, 200-pound build and play style are somewhat reminiscent of Cincinnati Bengals strong safety Vonn Bell. Bell signed a three-year, $18 million contract with the Bengals prior to the 2020 season that could serve as something of a blueprint here.
Getting Whitehead back on a deal worth an average of six million per year would be a steal, in our opinion. Whitehead has been extremely productive over the last two years as a downhill safety within Tampa Bay's scheme and has improved his ability to create turnovers, making him an intriguing free agent that numerous teams will have interest in if he hits the market.
86. G Alex Cappa
Contract Projection: Four years, $37 million ($9.25M per year), $20 million total guaranteed
Analysis: Cappa was drafted in the third round of the 2018 NFL Draft out of Division II Humboldt State. And he’s gotten better each season as he made a huge adjustment to the speed of the NFL game, culminating in career highs as a pass-blocker (71.1) and run-blocker (71.4). The Buccaneers also have center Ryan Jensen hitting free agency and may not be able to retain both players, which could lead to a solid free agency for Cappa.
We could see Tampa Bay prioritizing Cappa over Jensen if the team has to prioritize one lineman over the other, as Cappa is freshly removed from his best season to date and is much younger than his counterpart at 27 years old. That being said, teams often overpay for quality linemen on the free agent market, which could make Cappa not so easy to afford to bring back.
88. Edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul
Contract Projection: One year, $7 million, $5 million guaranteed
Analysis: At his best, Pierre-Paul is an every-down edge defender who understands how to use his length to impact both the run and pass game. It just remains to be seen how much of his best remains as injuries continue to mount for the 33-year-old.
Even with such a cheap projection, it would be a surprise to see the Bucs prioritizing bringing Pierre-Paul back. Due to nagging injuries in 2021, Pierre-Paul's production fell off drastically and he was basically a non-factor in Tampa Bay's defensive performance throughout the year. The Bucs also drafted Pierre-Paul's replacement a year ago in the first round, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. The writing appears to be on the wall.
Stay tuned to AllBucs for further coverage of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and other NFL news and analysis. Follow along on social media at @SIBuccaneers on Twitter and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sports Illustrated on Facebook.
