Buccaneers vs. Saints: Week 15 Game Preview

If the Buccaneers (10-3) beat the Saints (6-7) on Sunday Night Football, they'll do something they haven't done in nearly 15 years: win the NFC South.

It's that simple. The scenario that is, not the game. It makes perfect sense that the universe demands a win over the Saints before the Bucs can claim their title. The Bucs haven't beaten the Saints in the regular season since the 2018 season-opener and are trying to avoid a six-game regular-season losing streak to their NFC South rival.

Tampa Bay had to beat the Saints in order to get to/win the Super Bowl, so why would that change now?

Let's dive into this week's game preview.

Overview

All-time series: New Orleans leads the series, 38-22.
Longest win streak: The Saints won seven in a row from 2011-2014.
Largest margin of victory: The Bucs were dismantled, 41-0, back in 2012.
2021 offensive and defensive rankings: The Bucs lead the league in yards per game (1st pass, 25th run) and they have the 13th-ranked defense (25th pass, 3rd run). Tampa Bay averages 31.5 points per game on offense (1st) and has allowed 22.8 points per game on defense (19th). The Saints currently own the NFL's 23rd-ranked offense (29th pass, 13th run) and the 11th-best defense (18th pass, 5th run). They average 23.4 points per game (t-16th) on offense, while allowing 21.9 points per game on defense (11th).

What To Watch For

The effects of COVD-19 and injuries: Just about the entire NFL is dealing with major fallout from COVID-19. The virus will affect this game, but not to the point of let's say, the Cleveland Browns, for instance. Sean Payton and Breshad Perriman are out after contracting COVID. Those are two pretty big losses, but it's apparent that the loss of Payton is bigger than Perriman on paper. Injuries have taken their toll, as well. The Saints will be without starting offensive linemen Andrus Peat, Ryan Ramczyk, and Terron Armstead, among others. The Bucs will be without cornerback Jamel Dean and running back Giovani Bernard. There's a good chance Richard Sherman misses this game, too. And to cap it all off, Antoine Winfield Jr. did not practice all week and is listed as questionable. There's a chance he could miss this game, too.
The Saints offensive line vs. the Bucs pass rush: As mentioned above, the Saints offensive line is without some key players for this game. On the other hand, the Bucs pass rush is almost at full health. The Saints have allowed just six sacks in seven regular-season meetings against the Bucs over the last four years. A lot of that has to do with the offensive scheme, but it also has to do with the level of skill on the starting offensive line. Will the Saints be able to hold up against a Bucs pass rush that leads the league in sacks since Week 10 or will the missing components be too much to overcome?
The impact of Pete Carmichael Jr. and Dennis Allen: Payton is out, which means defensive coordinator Dennis Allen will take over the head-coaching duties. Allen has previous experience as a head coach and has been with the Saints since 2015, while Pete Carmichael Jr. has been with the Saints offensive coordinator since 2009. Both guys know which buttons to push in order to make their respective units go, but their in-game decision-making is what's going to be tested on Sunday night. Per Nick Underhill of NewOrleans.Football, Allen will focus on the defense while making the other needed calls and Carmichael will focus on the offense. Both guys don't have the experience of Payton, but they have enough of their own experience to where the Saints shouldn't see a precipitous drop in effective coaching.
Leonard Fournette: I mean, what else can you say about the former No. 4 overall pick? He's showcasing the talent and production that convinced Jacksonville he would be their workhorse back when they made him a top-5 pick in the 2017 draft. Fournette has two 100-yard rushing games in his last three contests and has amassed 100+ total yards in three of the last five games. However, the Week 8 matchup against the Saints featured his second-lowest output of the year when it comes to total yards. Will he be able to correct course this time around?

Impact Players

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

QB Tom Brady: It's safe to say that Brady has had his struggles against the Saints, even if he had the team in position to win the game late in the fourth quarter back in Week 8. The Bucs needed "December Tom" in the worst way this week.
RB Leonard Fournette: The fifth-year back has been playing out of his mind lately and the Bucs' running game will be a major factor in how efficient the offense can be this weekend.
WR Chris Godwin: Godwin has had some really good games against the Saints and that shouldn't change this weekend.
OLB Shaquil Barrett: The Saints are missing three starters on the offensive line, so Barrett and Co. should eat on Sunday night.
OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka: Jason Pierre-Paul's injuries continue to take their toll. JTS is receiving more playing time and should have success against the Saints' backup tackles/interior line (when he moves inside).
S Jordan Whitehead: Whitehead's return is huge because there is a chance the Bucs could be without Antoine Winfield Jr. in this game.

New Orleans Saints

QB Taysom Hill: Hill has given the Bucs fits as a role player in the past, but how will he do against them as the full-time quarterback?
RB Alvin Kamara: The former Tennessee Vol is the lifeblood of the Saints offense. The Bucs have to make sure he doesn't make too many plays.
WR Marquez Callaway: Callaway leads the team with 59 targets and is capable of making big plays downfield. Tampa Bay can't let him do that in this one.
DE Cameron Jordan: He's off the COVID list and is ready to go against a Bucs team where he has 5.5 sacks and 12 quarterback hits over the last six games.
CB Marshon Lattimore: Evans won the last matchup, but that has no bearing on this week's game. It's a dogfight whenever these two get together and that won't change in Week 15.
S Marcus Williams: Brady has specifically mentioned how good the Saints are when it comes to their safeties and Williams has given the Bucs plenty of headaches with his three interceptions in the last four matchups.

Cool Stats

With 1,006 yards in 2020, Mike Evans became the first player in NFL history with 1,000-or-more receiving yards in each of his first seven NFL seasons, surpassing Randy Moss (first six seasons). He stands just 115 yards shy of extending his streak to 8. Evans also ranks tied for first in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (11)
In Week 14 vs. Buffalo, Godwin surpassed the 1,000-yard receiving mark for the second time in his career becoming the sixth player in franchise history with multiple seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards. Godwin currently ranks second in the NFL in receptions and fourth in receiving yards through Week 14.
The Buccaneers lead the NFL with 100 quarterback hits this season.
Godwin needs 10 receptions to become the first player in franchise history with 10+ receptions in three consecutive games.
From the start of the 2019 season, Tampa Bay is tied for second in takeaways and first in points off turnovers.

*Stats provided by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Communications Department

Game Outlook

This might sound strange considering we are talking about a 10-3 team in the Bucs, but this is a must-win game for them.

I don't mean that in terms of the overall season, but just in terms of getting over the hump that is the Saints. It looked like the Bucs finally cracked that nut during the playoffs, but it all came crashing down during the 36-27 loss back in Week 8.

The Bucs not only have a chance to win the NFC South with a win on Sunday night. They also have a shot at making it very, very hard for the Saints to make the playoffs: A loss would send New Orleans to 6-8 and would send them further down the ladder depending on what happens with other matchups across the league. And of course, there's the whole five-game losing streak during the regular season thing for the Bucs to overcome, too.

I don't think this game will be easy even though the Saints are having big-time issues with injuries and COVID-related absences. For one, it's a divisional game and for two, the Saints have had so much success against this coaching staff that it's hard to envision them just sucking against the Bucs all of a sudden. But hey, crazier things have happened, right?

The Bucs offense is clicking in regard to the running game and the passing game and the secondary -despite the loss of Dean and potential losses of Sherman and Winfield- is much healthier than it was in Week 8. The pass rush has come to life, too, which will be very useful against a beat-up Saints offensive line.

At the end of the day, I do think the Bucs come away with a win. They'll play smart, sound football and will be able to hang an NFC South champs banner in Raymond James Stadium as a result.

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