Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Preview and Prediction

Sam Hays

Following the Kansas City Chiefs' first loss of the season, they head to New York to face the Buffalo Bills, who are also coming off their first loss of the year. Both quarterbacks playing in this game, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, are among the league's top MVP contenders, and both will be the clear most-important parts to winning this game on Monday.

Stat to Know: The Bills' offense has 0.38 EPA per dropback, the best in the AFC.

Entering Week 6, the Bills have the most efficient, effective passing offense in the AFC and the second-most efficient, effective in the NFL. On top of that, Josh Allen is Pro Football Focus' (PFF) highest-graded quarterback in the AFC and their third-highest graded quarterback in the NFL, trailing only Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

Matchup to Watch: Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills secondary

NFL Defense Chart 2020 Week 5 10-90 WP

The Bills defense currently ranks 13th in Dropback EPA per play at 0.074, which would be the second-best that the Chiefs have had to face to this point in the season.

NFL QB Chart 2020 Week 5 10-90 WP

Meanwhile, Patrick Mahomes currently ranks sixth in Dropback EPA per play at 0.335, which will be the third-best the Bills have had to face so far.

Key to the Game: Who makes the most mistakes between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and will they be punished for them?

Heading into Week 6, both Mahomes and Allen have been worthy MVP candidates playing extraordinarily good football. Mahomes has 15 touchdowns and one interception, while Allen has 17 touchdowns and three interceptions. Neither has been flawless though, as Allen has three additional fumbles and both have thrown a few near-interceptions that they have gotten away with. If either of them are unable to get away with the mistakes they make, that will be a major part of deciding who wins this game.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bills 24

The Chiefs and Bills are both high-level teams with quarterbacks playing on an MVP level, and with lots of quality weapons. It’s too bad this game will be on at 4 p.m. on a weekday, because it deserves a greater spotlight on it than it will get. I expect a fun, exciting, energetic barn-burner of a game, and I think Patrick Mahomes will just get the better of Josh Allen.

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