Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: Preview and Prediction
This Sunday, the Kansas City Chiefs go back on the road to Miami, where they won the Super Bowl this past February, to face the 8-4 Miami Dolphins. Since starting the season 1-3, the Dolphins have won seven of their last eight games, but five of those seven wins have come against poor competition (49ers, Jets twice, Chargers and Bengals) and the other two have been against the Cardinals and Rams. The Dolphins also lost 20-13 against the Broncos in Week 11.
Fact to Know: The Dolphins are one of the best early-down passing offenses in the NFL.
EPA = Expected Points Added
One might not expect it, but this Dolphins team is fantastic in terms of early-down passing. They currently rank seventh in early-down pass rate with 58.4% and first in early-down passing EPA per play with 0.357!
It's also not just one quarterback who succeeds in this situation, as both of their quarterbacks, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tua Tagovailoa, rank in the top 10 for EPA+CPOE composite score in early downs situations!
This kind of frequency and production makes the Dolphins a real threat for any defense in the league, despite their offense not being one of the league's best thanks to some late down struggles, ranking 28th in late-down passing EPA per play with -0.236.
Matchup to Watch: Xavien Howard vs. Tyreek Hill
Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard has had yet another magnificent season, securing a spot as Pro Football Focus' highest-graded cornerback in the NFL and leading the NFL with eight interceptions, the most for any player through 13 weeks since 2012. Howard also has a 48.9 passer rating allowed when targeted, the best among 26 cornerbacks with 60+ targets.
Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill has been incredible in recent weeks. Since Week 9, Hill only trails Davante Adams of the Packers in PFF grade, while being tied with him in touchdowns and 15 yards ahead of him in receiving yards. Adams and Hill are the top two in all three metrics.
Hill vs. Howard, if that is the primary matchup for those two, would be a matchup of arguably the best cornerback and wide receiver in the NFL. Let's hope, for entertainment and potentially major bragging rights, that this is what we see on Sunday.
Key to the Game: Will the Chiefs turn around their red zone woes?
The Chiefs are the worst team in the red zone in the NFL at the moment. Since Week 10, their offense ranks dead last in red zone touchdown percentage at 33.3% and their defense ranks second-to-last in red zone touchdown percentage allowed at 77.8%, only better than the Chicago Bears. You'd assume that the Chiefs should and will turn this around with all the talent that they have, and a start against a defense as good as Miami's would be fantastic.
Prediction: Chiefs 27, Dolphins 21
This is a tough matchup for the Chiefs to deal with, with a defense as good as the one the Dolphins have and with their great early-down passing production and frequency. I believe the Chiefs win a tight one, once again thanks to the heroics of Patrick Mahomes on the road to his second career MVP. This may also be the game where Travis Kelce is most needed this season, with Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins facing Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, one of the league's best cornerback duos.
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