Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders: Preview and Prediction
The Kansas City Chiefs head into Raider Week with a 4-0 record after defeating a weakened New England Patriots squad 26-10. Patrick Mahomes already has four wins in four games against the Raiders, doubling Derek Carr's win total in the rivalry over a 12-game span.
Stat to Know: The Raiders' defense is in the bottom three in the NFL in numerous metrics.
EPA = Expected Points Added
Entering Week 5, the Raiders have what is arguably one of the three worst defenses in the NFL. They ranked 31st in Rush EPA allowed per play, 30th in Defense DVOA, 30th in both Pass Defense DVOA and Rush Defense DVOA and 31st in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade.
The Raiders haven't had a particularly good defense in other recent seasons either, ranking 30th in Dropback EPA allowed per play and 31st in Defense DVOA last season and ranking 32nd in EPA allowed per play and 31st in Defense DVOA in 2018.
Matchup to Watch: Darren Waller vs. Chiefs secondary
Waller is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, finishing second in receiving yards in 2019 with 1,146 yards and starting 2020 in third with 245 yards. It will be crucial for the Chiefs to contain Waller to keep this a game a comfortable one rather than a shootout.
Some players who could face Waller often in this game are safety and frequent slot corner Tyrann Mathieu, cornerback Charvarius Ward and linebacker Damien Wilson, among others. It will be important for these players to bring their A-game when covering Waller.
Key to the Game: Can Patrick Mahomes rebound from his off-game against New England?
While Mahomes' box score and advanced numbers were good in the Patriots game, his actual performance was not, as indicated by his 44.9 PFF grade, the second-worst of his career. This week, Mahomes is in a much greater position to succeed, facing a much worse, less-creative defense in the Raiders.
It is likely that the Chiefs big weapons, such as Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins will be able to get open against the Raiders' coverage group consisting of Trayvon Mullen, Erik Harris, Cory Littleton, Johnathan Abram, Lamarcus Joyner and Nevin Lawson. As long as he can make the plays he needs to, it should be a big day for Mahomes.
Prediction: Chiefs 41, Raiders 17
I expect a Mahomes masterclass in this one, throwing dimes all over the field to his star weapons that created the amount of separation needed. I'll predict Mahomes gets four touchdowns with two to Kelce, one to Hill and one to Hardman. Add another touchdown for Edwards-Helaire on the ground.
I also predict that Derek Carr is going to be pretty bad in this one and this game will leave a stain on his season stats, currently at 273 passing yards per game, eight passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.
