Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots: Preview and Prediction
Following their huge 34-20 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs return back to Arrowhead Stadium to face the New England Patriots, led by quarterback — *checks notes* — Brian Hoyer? On... Monday evening at 6:05 p.m.? On CBS? What happened?
Nevertheless, this is the first time the Chiefs will face a Patriots starting quarterback other than Tom Brady since December 4, 2000. In that time, the Chiefs have faced the Patriots 11 times and went 4-7, including a 3-3 record in the Andy Reid era.
Stat to Know: The Patriots defense has allowed a 109.9 passer rating this season.
The 2020 Patriots defense is still a solid defense, but they are off to a much worse start than the elite 2019 Patriots defense. In 2020, the Patriots have a 109.9 passer rating allowed, 2.5 passing touchdowns allowed per game and the 10th-ranked defense in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. In 2019, they had a 67.4 passer rating allowed, 0.8 passing touchdowns allowed per game and the top-ranked defense in EPA per play.
In fact, the Chiefs' pass defense actually ranks higher than the Patriots' pass defense early into the season, a pretty remarkable achievement for the Chiefs considering the numerous absences of different cornerbacks from Bashaud Breeland's suspension to the injuries of Charvarius Ward and L'Jarius Sneed.
Matchup to Watch: Sammy Watkins vs. Stephon Gilmore
It would be really hard to not pick this as the matchup to watch, as they have had multiple battles before and it has gone mostly in Gilmore's favor, with Gilmore allowing just 89 yards in four games against Kansas City, with just one game over 20 yards allowed, since joining the Patriots in 2017. However, 2020 hasn't been the smoothest start for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, as he has already allowed a touchdown this season (after allowing just one touchdown last year) and his passer rating when targeted has more than doubled, going from 48.0 in 2019 to 98.7 in the first three weeks of 2020.
Watkins may also be showing some potential for more consistently good play than his 2019 campaign, as he has two games of 60+ receiving yards in his first three games after having just three games of 60+ receiving yards in last season's regular season. If Watkins can keep this up, this will be a big help for Mahomes and the offense, as the Patriots will obviously put much of their focus on bracketing Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Key to the Game: Can Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce overcome the focus the Patriots' defense puts on them? If not, how does Mecole Hardman respond?
Before Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19, my key to the game was about how Spagnuolo and the defense would stop Newton. Change of plans now with the change in quarterbacks, as Brian Hoyer does not give much room for concern, and rightfully so.
We all know about the bracket coverage that the Patriots have used on Tyreek Hill and all the focus they put on Travis Kelce as well. Their plan is to try to make you go to your third and fourth options. This is especially tough when the Patriots then put their top cornerback, Stephon Gilmore, on the third option. Luckily, Hill and Kelce are still good enough to potentially produce with the major focus on them and, if they are unable to produce that much, the Chiefs have a very dangerous fourth option in Mecole Hardman.
Hardman had 81 yards and one touchdown last week against Baltimore, being the top receiver for Total EPA. Hardman is more than capable of making the Patriots pay for putting all that attention on Hill, Kelce and Watkins. The question is "Will he be able to pull it off?"
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Patriots 14
The Chiefs are quite likely to win this one. The Patriots defense's regression, the continued lack of receiver weapons and downgrade to Brian Hoyer at quarterback almost certainly ruins their chances of winning this game. The Chiefs' offense may have hiccups, but this should be a game that the Chiefs defense are in full control of considering the opposing quarterback and his weapons. If the Chiefs win, they will go 4-0 when they face off with the Las Vegas Raiders next week.
