Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Super Bowl LV Preview and Prediction
It's here, the moment of truth: Super Bowl LV. For the first time in Super Bowl history, the home team will be playing in their home stadium for the big game, as the Kansas City Chiefs head to Tampa Bay to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This game is also featuring two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play this beautiful game, with the Chiefs having Patrick Mahomes, who is looking to win his second Super Bowl in just three seasons as a starter, and the Buccaneers having Tom Brady, who is looking to win his would-be-record seventh Super Bowl and his first away from Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots.
There are so many major storylines to take from this game, including Mahomes vs. Brady, Travis Kelce vs. Rob Gronkowski, Tyreek Hill vs. Carlton Davis and Scotty Miller, Andy Reid vs. Bruce Arians, the Chiefs offensive line vs. the Buccaneers pass rush and more. This is a truly fascinating matchup and we can only hope it lives up to the potential.
Fact to Know: Tom Brady's washed still got it.
There is a major misconception about Tom Brady's 2020 season. Many say he has not been that good, or that he's even been carried by his receivers and defense. This could not be further from the truth.
EPA = Expected Points Added, CPOE = Completion Percentage Over Expectation (Completion Percentage minus Expected Completion Percentage)
Brady has certainly been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, finishing the regular season tied with Ryan Tannehill for the third-highest EPA per play (0.304), only trailing Aaron Rodgers' 0.415 and Patrick Mahomes' 0.358 and currently having the third-highest EPA per play in the postseason (0.308), only trailing Patrick Mahomes' 0.496 and Baker Mayfield's 0.327.
It's not just the advanced numbers that look good for Brady either. Brady had 4,633 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns in the regular season, both of which were his best in several years for the regular season, with his last passing yards total that high coming in 2015 and his passing touchdowns total being the second-highest of his career behind his historic 50 touchdown season in 2007. With the postseason included, he has 5,493 passing yards, his highest since 2017, and 47 passing touchdowns, tied for the second-highest of his career. Based on statistics, this is easily one of the three or four best seasons of Tom Brady's illustrious career, especially if he ends it with another Lombardi Trophy.
Matchup to Watch: Tyreek Hill vs. Carlton Davis
We all know how the Week 12 game between these two went. Hill had the greatest receiving quarter I have ever seen, racking up 203 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns in just the first quarter of that game. Hill finished the game with 269 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns, and 211 of those yards and all three touchdowns came against Davis.
While the Buccaneers have a cornerback better than Davis in Jamel Dean, they seem to put Davis on opposing team's top receivers more often and it has occasionally gone quite well, as they also put Davis on Michael Thomas in their matchups against the Saints and got fantastic results. Over three games against the Saints, Thomas was targeted 11 times against Davis and had a grand total of 47 yards, including zero yards on three targets in their matchup in the NFC Divisional Round. If the Buccaneers can get that version of Carlton Davis and not the one Chiefs fans have been able to experience, their odds of winning will increase tremendously. Davis has also shown he can really make you pay if you aren't careful, as he has four interceptions this season and the second-most pass breakups since he entered the league in 2018.
However, it's not only Hill doing this to Davis. Davis had to see a lot of Davante Adams in the NFC Championship Game and it's safe to say Adams got the better of him more than he'd like, including this spectacularly-run route that burned Davis and resulted in a touchdown.
Key to the Game: Will Patrick Mahomes be as good in the game as he has been in practice?
According to wide receiver Tyreek Hill, Mahomes has had some of the best practices he's ever had in the days leading up to Super Bowl LV. That really says something considering the greatness that we've seen in the past from Mahomes. With the concerns that some have about the offensive line with both highly-accomplished tackles out, however, we may need to see that kind of performance from Mahomes. I personally am not that concerned about it, as we have plenty of examples of elite and intelligent quarterbacks usually overcoming offensive line issues with high-quality quick passing and elusiveness in and out of the pocket. What I am more interested in is how impressive Mahomes himself is. Are his throws as incredible as Hill suggests his recent practices have been? Is the historic playmaking ability on full display against a tough Buccaneers defense? Will Mahomes find and hit the deep bomb every time it opens up for him? If all of this goes in Kansas City's favor, Sunday will be a special day for Chiefs Kingdom.
Prediction: Chiefs 38, Buccaneers 27
This is something that seemed like it would never happen prior to this offseason: a Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady Super Bowl matchup! Unlike the other playoff matchup between these two, however, I believe that we finally see that major "passing of the torch" moment where Mahomes clearly outplays Brady and comes away with his second Lombardi Trophy. Andy Reid will continue cementing himself as one of the greatest coaches in NFL history, Travis Kelce will continue cementing himself as one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history and Patrick Mahomes will continue on his path to becoming the greatest quarterback football has ever seen.
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Read More: Super Bowl LV Scouting Report: Chiefs Defense vs. Buccaneers Offense
