AFC West Is Won, but Chiefs Have Bigger Plans
The Kansas City Chiefs accomplished something major on Sunday afternoon when they defeated the Houston Texans on the road. With that win, Kansas City clinched the AFC West title for a whopping seventh year in a row. That matches the second-longest streak for a single team in NFL history, making for one heck of a feat.
Despite that, the team is hoping that winning the West isn't the best thing it does all season. The Chiefs have bigger benchmarks to strive for, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes hinted at those following Week 15's victory:
"We accomplished our first goal. So, our next goal is to try to establish home field advantage. It's not in our hands. We can do our best to be ready in case we get that opportunity, and then win the Super Bowl. We just kind of continue to get better and better."
Per FiveThirtyEight, Kansas City has an 18% chance of winning the Super Bowl as of Monday morning. In regards to that elusive first-round bye, Andy Reid's team has a 39% chance of earning it and trails only the Buffalo Bills in the AFC (50% chance). If both teams win next week — independent of other matchups throughout the league — those percentages will be 54% in Buffalo's favor and 38% in Kansas City's. If the Chicago Bears upset Buffalo and Kansas City takes care of the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16, Patrick Mahomes and company suddenly have a 75% chance of snagging that No. 1 seed.
The Chiefs have some demons to exorcise, as they've already lost to the Bills and the Cincinnati Bengals this year. Those were one-score defeats that ultimately could've gone either way, however, so there isn't any reason to think they can't hang with the other two elite clubs in the conference. As things currently stand, Kansas City would be hosting Tyreek Hill and the Miami Dolphins in the opening weekend of the playoffs. There are multiple reasons to secure that first-round bye (health, general rest, more time to prepare), but perhaps the most important is simply letting the rest of the AFC beat each other up. That, in and of itself, is a massive advantage.
With remaining contests against the aforementioned Seahawks, then back-to-back games against the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders to close out the year, the Chiefs don't have a serious test left on their schedule. The Bills, on the other hand, play a 3-11 Chicago team but then have an outing in Cincinnati against a red-hot Bengals squad and then have to come back home to host a New England Patriots club that could be fighting for its playoff lives in the season's final week. Cincinnati, still alive in the hunt for the top seed in the AFC, plays New England, then Buffalo, then Baltimore to end its regular season.
Before their loss to the Bengals, the Chiefs were in control of their own destiny in regard to securing that first-round bye. They now need some help, but all it takes is one Bills loss to assist Kansas City in being able to watch from home for a weekend while the conference's other playoff squads go to battle in the wild-card round. That advantage is extremely valuable now that only one bye is handed out, and it increases a team's odds of reaching the Super Bowl. Extending the AFC West streak is nice, but the Chiefs' truly desired goals are still out in front of them.
