Why Analytics Are Crucial to Keeping Up With the Evolution of Football
Analytics: the new wave sweeping through the football landscape in the modern era. It allows us to make more informed decisions than ever before. Many of the most successful teams in football today take an analytical approach in their decision-making with transactions and game-planning. Take a look at the Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs as the clearest examples.
The Ravens made a breakthrough in 2019 under Head Coach John Harbaugh, becoming the favorite team of many football analytics nerds, despite being one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league, not typically something the analytics community would be in favor of. Why were they so widely embraced? Because of the style of their rushing attack and their willingness to go for it on fourth down. The way the Ravens’ offense worked was unique and not your typical run-first attack. They achieved some of the advantages that passing brings by spreading out the defense and getting great athletes in space. (If you didn’t know previously, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is a great athlete.)
On fourth downs, the Ravens were in a league of their own with fourth-down go-rate with a near 65% go-rate for the situations recommended by the New York Times’ fourth-down bot. This strategy paid off for the Ravens, as they finished the regular season with the fifth-highest conversion rate in the NFL and scored touchdowns on 12 drives with a fourth-down attempt compared to just seven drives with a turnover on downs. This was a key part of them finishing 2019 with a 14-2 record, the best in the NFL.
Unfortunately for them, their fortunes flipped in their most important game. After a season of dominating on fourth downs, they converted zero of four fourth-down attempts in their divisional round playoff game against the Tennessee Titans. All of these decisions were the correct moves — two fourth-and-one attempts from their own 45-yard-line and the Titans’ 18-yard-line, along with two attempts late in the game down 16 points — but they were unable to convert them. If they were able to convert, the Ravens would have likely won the game or at least forced overtime. In theory, the correct decisions pay off and the incorrect decisions don’t, but to quote the new Netflix show Outer Banks, “Stupid things have good outcomes all the time.”
The second example of the embracing of analytics leading to success comes from the Philadelphia Eagles under the leadership of Head Coach Doug Pederson. In 2016, the Eagles were the first team to go for fourth downs in at least 50% of situations recommended by the New York Times fourth-down bot, and they followed it up by leading the NFL in the same statistic the following two seasons.
In 2017, the Eagles played the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. The play that will always be remembered from that game was a fourth-and-goal touchdown scored by the Eagles from the Patriots’ one-yard line. It was a trick play with a direct snap to running back Corey Clement, who tossed it back to tight end Trey Burton, who then threw the pass to quarterback Nick Foles. This is better known as the Philly Special. This was a 4.2 Expected Points Added (EPA) play, the most valuable play of the game for the Eagles. The Eagles won the Super Bowl by one score, thanks in part to Pederson’s progressive, aggressive mindset when it mattered most.
Lastly, we have the Kansas City Chiefs under Head Coach Andy Reid. Unlike the Ravens and Eagles, the Chiefs aren’t too keen on going for it on fourth down, which may be Reid’s greatest weakness as a play-caller, but he makes up for it in a spectacular way with his early-down passing rate. Reid is one of the most pass-friendly play-callers in the history of football and it has helped turn his offenses into a powerhouse, year-in and year-out. The 2019 Chiefs passed the ball on nearly 68% of their first and second-down plays (with a 20-80 percent win probability, excluding the final two minutes of each half). This willingness to pass over and over without falling for the traditional methods may have been the saving grace to their season. When you have a great quarterback, you should be throwing at least 65 percent of the time, including the later downs, and the Chiefs passed with flying colors.
In Super Bowl LIV, from the moment the Chiefs were down 10 points to the moment they took the lead, they ran pass plays on 26 of their 29 offensive plays. They gained 6.85 yards per passing play on those 26 plays, compared to 2.33 yards per rushing play on the remaining three. This doesn’t include a 20-yard pass interference penalty, which would raise it to 7.33 yards per passing play. Despite the San Francisco 49ers knowing that every play would be a pass play, the Chiefs’ passing efficiency late in the game was remarkable while their rushing efficiency was awful. This pass-heavy philosophy allowed Mahomes to work his magic and bring the Chiefs their first Lombardi Trophy in 50 years.
All three teams have had incredible success while being on the cutting edge of the football analytics world, as the Ravens finished 2019 with a league-best 14-2 record, the Eagles finished 2017 with a 13-3 record and a Super Bowl championship, thanks in part to an amazing fourth-down play call, and the Chiefs finished 2018 with a 12-4 record and an AFC Championship game appearance and 2019 with a Super Bowl championship, thanks in part to a historic passing offense given the proper amount of plays to work with. Stay on the cutting edge and reap the rewards given to you. If you don’t, you might just end up like the New York Giants.
